TopTradersUnplugged.com

Today, Rob Carver joins us to reflect on a market environment that appears calm on the surface but feels increasingly fragile underneath. From oil market distortions and muted reactions to geopolitical risk to the steady resilience of equities, the conversation questions whether price action is telling the full story. Rob shares insights from his own performance, including why slower trend signals...

Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why e...

Markets are currently being shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological change, and shifting investor behavior. In this episode, Andrew and Niels explore how these forces are influencing trend following and systematic investing. They discuss recent market volatility, the impact of global conflict on asset prices, and why traditional diversification assumptions are being tested. A key f...

What if the real edge in markets is not in adding more assets, but in choosing fundamentally different ones? In this episode, Moritz Siebert speaks with Tom Babbedge about why alternative commodity markets offer a distinct source of diversification and trend. They explore how structural supply and demand imbalances create persistent price moves, why many financial markets behave as one during stre...

Markets rarely offer clarity when it matters most. In this episode, together with Katy Kaminski and Harry Moore, we reflect on a first quarter defined by sharp reversals, energy shocks, and rising dispersion across strategies. They explain how trend following adapted as leadership flipped across asset classes, and why results varied more than many expected. The conversation moves beyond performanc...

What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical conflict and energy dominance to rising inequality and generational pressure, they describe a system under strain. The discussion connects investor behavior, policymaking, and social dynamics through a...

Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the limits of traditional explanations. They discuss why assets like gold and bonds no longer react as expected, how flows and positioning can dominate price action, and why dispersion across managers in...

In today’s episode we talk to Craig Mundie, formerly the Chief Technical Officer at Microsoft and a leading advocate for responsible development of artificial intelligence. He joins Kevin Coldiron to discuss his book, Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit co-authored with Eric Schmidt and Henry Kissinger. Mundie believes the timeline for AI’s impact on the economy is extreme...

Markets have shifted quickly in 2026, forcing systematic investors to reassess what is signal and what is noise. In this episode, Niels and Nick explore recent drawdowns, volatility in commodities, and how geopolitical shocks ripple through quantitative strategies. They unpack the role of QIS, the evolving structure of energy markets, and why some trends are holding while others fade. The conversa...

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Dan Mikulskis, CIO of People’s Partnership, about the evolution of large pension funds and what it means to think like an asset owner. Managing over £40 billion for millions of members, Dan explains how scale changes the way portfolios are constructed, managers are selected, and partnerships are built. The conversation explores the balance between passive an...

What if trends in financial markets are not anomalies, but the natural consequence of how markets function? In this episode, Niels and Richard explore the structural foundations of trend following. Drawing on research spanning 68 futures markets across four decades, Richard explains why markets exhibit persistent trends, fat-tailed returns, and volatility clustering. The discussion moves from oil...

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Aoifinn Devitt about what it really means to build resilient portfolios in a world of shifting regimes and competing narratives. Drawing on experience across pensions, hedge fund advisory, and private wealth, Aoifinn reflects on how institutional lessons translate to individual investors. The conversation explores the role of diversification, the evolving ca...

Markets can shift direction faster than the narratives used to explain them. In this episode, Niels and Alan unpack the sharp reversal in bond markets, the geopolitical tensions shaping energy prices, and the role of options flows in keeping equity indices pinned despite rising uncertainty beneath the surface. The conversation moves through recent hedge fund industry discussions in Miami, renewed...

Cem Karsan sits down with Neil Howe to examine what a true regime shift means for markets and society. Howe argues that we are deep into a Fourth Turning, a generational winter that historically brings institutional fracture, geopolitical strain, and inflation that reshapes debts, assets, and political power. Cem ties that arc to today’s realities: the exhaustion of the 40 year tailwind from falli...

In this episode, Alan Dunne and Cem Karsan explore a market that appears calm on the surface yet increasingly unstable underneath. As indices move sideways, they discuss how options flows and structured products are reshaping market behavior, driving rotation rather than direction. From the weakening of former leaders to the rise of defensives, the conversation turns to what these shifts may signa...

In today’s episode we talk to Mark Roberts, founder of Off Wall Street, a legendary provider of short selling research to hedge funds. Seven months before Enron became the biggest bankruptcy in US corporate history, Off Wall Street published a report recommending the shares be sold. The success of this call made Mark and Off Wall Street synonymous with original and rigorous research. We talk to Ma...

Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a surprising divergence between US and emerging market inflation, the conversation centers on rotation, uncertainty, and shifting assumptions about safety. They explore whether Treasuries still anchor p...

The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlin...

Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and alloc...

A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capital becomes a policy tool. The conversation moves from China’s exported deflation to Europe’s structural constraints, then into America’s strategy of attracting investment with tariff leverage. Beneath...

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when marke...

Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge funds, and applied AI, Ben explains why stories, not data, increasingly drive outcomes in modern markets. The conversation spans unstructured data, inference, common knowledge, and the mechanics of narr...

Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification across markets and speeds matters more than ever. Drawing on new research, they examine dispersion within the CTA universe, the limits of replication, and how volatility targeting quietly determines outc...

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, argui...

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discu...