Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Oxbow at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/oxbowStock valuations are at their highest EVER, by many metrics. So much so that a recent guest on this channel calls them "pornographically" overvalued. And these lofty valuations come at a time when the macro data reveals the economy is slowing down. How long can this dichotomy last before either stocks...

LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor shou...

Today's guest has been a relatively recent entrant into the world of macroeconomic analysis, but he has certainly made a big splash within a short period of time. Chris Irons is the author and publisher of Quoth The Raven, which has become one of most popular financial newsletters around, currently sitting at #25 in the list of top financial Substacks worldwide. Chris's take, while unconve...

The cost of capital is rising. Inflation may be more present in future years, especially as we re-shore manufacturing. And as we re-shore it, we are also re-introducing our economy's exposure to the natural business cycle -- something we'd largely been able to divorce our exposure to by pushing it onto other countries during the era of Globalization. In short: the entire framework we'v...

It's a tricky time for investors right now. We're seeing increasing signs the economy is slowing down, but nearly all assets are surging in price right now. Some, like many stocks, are at all--time high valuations levels. Even though the weakening economic data increasingly makes their forward earnings forecasts look unattainable. Bond yields remain elevated and inflation is not yet at the Fed's 2...

In this new monthly macro/market recap with veteran investor David Hay, we go deep into the major trends in motion currently: an increasing number of recessionary indicators, a fast-deteriorating housing market, higher for longer bond yields, stubborn secular inflation, and a promising outlook for the commodity complex. Let us know in the Comments if you value this new monthly segment with David....

The jobs market is starting to show signs of being in real trouble. August payrolls were a huge disappointment, coming in at a VERY weak 22k (vs expectations of 75k).And the June payrolls number was revised downwards to a LOSS of -13k jobs,. On top of that, this week's JOLTS data revealed that there are now *fewer* jobs openings than applicants, something we haven't seen since the early da...

After a year of projecting confidence in America's "strong" and "resilient" economy, at his recent Jackson Hole appearance, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suddenly changed his tune. He expressed concern about the deteriorating labor market, saying the situation may warrant a resumption of monetary easing notwithstanding the potential inflationary risks of tariffs. This...

GET OUR FREE GUIDE TO BUYING GOLD & SILVER https://thoughtfulmoney.com/goldThe breakout in gold & silver continues to gain momentum today. How high are prices likely to go? That was the topic of today's livestream with Jonathan Wellum, founder of ROCKLINC Investment Partners, Thoughtful Money’s endorsed Canadian financial advisory firm. Jonathan has been an active investor in the precious...

In my opinion, the easiest macro trend to forecast is that our fiat currencies will continue to lose purchasing power in the years ahead, likely at an accelerating rate. Today's guest not only agrees, but rings that same bell even more loudly than I do. For an update on his outlook on inflation, asset prices, the economy, the dollar, and what to expect next in this current Fourth Turning, we're fo...

It's an especially confusing time for investors given how divided the experts are on whether resurging inflation or disinflation/deflation is more likely from here. Your answer to this question determines whether you think the Fd starting to cut interests rates is a good idea or not. Today's guest has very strong views on this matter, based on a lifetime of study. For perspective, we have the grea...

Historically, September is the cruelest month for stocks. October is little better. Are odds good that history will repeat, especially with valuations as extreme as they currently are? Or, will the party continue on through the end of the year? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the probabilities, as well as the latest market technical analysis, recession risk, the likeliest next steps...

Today's guest is the perfect expert to discuss a year as volatile as 2025 has been so far. Cem Karsan is Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors & Kai Wealth. He's widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter. Heading into 2025, Cem warned us that he predicted it would be a year of heightened volatility. And that certainly proved true in the first half of the yea...

Stephanie Pomboy returned this morning for her biweekly macro session on Thoughtful Money. We discussed her views on Fed rate cuts, inflation, credit spreads, the weakening consumer, recession risk, the housing market, her outlook for the US dollar…even the Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce engagement. Stephanie is eagerly awaiting next month’s FOMC decision, as she thinks it has potential to be the event...

Suddenly, the Federal Reserve is filled with more drama and curveballs than a World Series tiebreaker. The betting markets are abuzz debating who President Trump will replace current Chair Jerome Powell with. A surprise resignation from Fed governor and FOMC voting member Adriana Kugler has added Trump loyalist Stephen Mirran into the Inner Circle. And another FOMC voting member, governor Lisa Coo...

LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceGet ready for years of pain for home prices, warns housing analyst Melody Wright. In fact, the correction is already underway. But it's only just getting started in her estimation.#homeprices #housingmarket #realestate _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Mone...

Jerome Powell just made his long-awaited speech at Jackson Hole and sent a strong signal the Fed will start cutting interest rates due to increasing concern over growing economic weakness. The markets, little surprise, took this as fantastic news and practically every asset class rose sharply in price. Is this sustainable? Assets, after all, are valued based on expected future earnings. If the eco...

As the world awaits Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the question on everyone's mind is:Where is inflation headed from here? Is it set to surge as the Trump tariffs start being felt in full force? Or is it set to trend downwards to the Fed's 2.0% target due to a slowing economy? To discuss the latest possibilities, we have the good fortune to sit down an...

LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceIn today's video, we discuss a new chart showing the top 1% running away with America's wealth. This is massive challenge facing our society. Some would call it a calamity. At what point does the bottom 90% hit its breaking point? And what can we, as individuals, do to de...

TO BUY GOLD & SILVER, contact Andy's firm at info@milesfranklin.comPrecious metals expert Andy Schectman returns to answer all your precious metals-related questions.#goldprice #silver #preciousmetals __________________________________________________Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter. We produce & distribute educational content geared for the individual i...

Today's guest has a contrarian bullish view on bonds, especially when looking out over the next 3 to 5 years. While consensus still leans cautious, his take is that this moment offers a rare setup for strong bond performance. Why? Well, let's ask the man himselfToday we have the good fortune to welcome to the program Jim Masturzo, CIO of Multi-Asset Strategies at Research Affiliates. Aroun...

The real estate market remains a tangled mess. Commercial real estate has crashed hard under higher interest rates and tighter lending standards. However, higher mortgage rates have NOT brought down residential home prices, at least not on a national average...yet. That said, transactions remain frozen up, languishing at the lowest level in decades. Where is all this headed? Are things likely to g...

Wall Street exists to sell us its products. And right now, retail investors are so greedy that they're buying whatever they can get their hands on. So this is a "bonanza" time for Wall Street, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts, which is happily selling us all of the junk it ever wanted to unload. Prices may continue for a good while longer, but be warned, says Lance: history is clear that perio...

Stephanie Pomboy returned this morning for her biweekly macro session on Thoughtful Money and shared how it won’t surprise her that, if the Federal Reserve does indeed cut rates in September, the market could enter a correction soon after. In fact, were this to happen, it would be extremely consistent with the past pattern of rate cut regimes. Much more often than not, it’s once the Fed starts cut...

The dollar has weakened considerably so far this year. Amidst the new US Adminstration's hardball trade tactics, critics claim that foreigners are ramping up their de-dollarization efforts, buying less US debt, and that the days of the dollar as the dominant world reserve currency are ending. How much truth, if any, underlies this? For answers, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program  Brent...