Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

The bears had every opportunity to break the markets over the past few years: From a global pandemic with a broad economic shut down, to a resulting 40 year high in inflation followed by the most aggressive rate cycle in history. But the bears failed. The markets are back at all-time highs. And likely to power a lot higher from here, predicts technical analyst Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com, w...

The S&P 500 is back to an all-time high and the NASDAQ is a hairs'-breadth away from the same. Stocks have started 2024 strong and appear now to be in a positive-feedback loop, where higher prices entice more buyers, leading to still higher prices. Multiple expansion is underway and stocks are remain quite overbought in the short-term. How much longer can the melt-up last for? Portfolio ma...

The S&P and Nasdaq are back to all-time highs. And the recently-released Q4 GDP data beat analysts expectations, positively, by a long shot. So are we in the clear? Is the soft landing camp being proven right? Have we been able to side step the Lag Effects so many expected from the Fed's aggressive campaigns of rates hikes and Quantitative Tightening? Is inflation indeed on its way to bein...

One of the asset classes I get the most requests to do an interview on is farmland. It's a form of real estate investment that yields cash flow by producing commodities -- all attractive qualities to investors worried about inflation and/or the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies. But how does it perform vs other asset classes? And how does one invest in farmland without being forced t...

According to the latest government data, the US economy is growing faster than expected, inflation is largely under control, jobs are plentiful and consumer households remain "resilient". So from this perspective, times are good. But talk to real consumers and you hear a very different story. The cost of living is at crippling levels, forcing consumers to stop saving and put an increasin...

NEW!! SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com The S&P just hit a new all-time high for 5 straight days over the past week. It missed doing so again on Friday by the thinnest of whiskers (0.07%) Portfolio manager Lance Roberts says it’s clear we’re now in what’s called a “bullish stampede” in stocks, where ri...

A month ago, energy analyst Doomberg published a report titled "Peak Cheap Oil Is A Myth", and a few weeks back, I interviewed him about it. To say it ruffled feathers would be a huge understatement. Those in the Peak Cheap Oil camp have clamored for a chance to respond to Doomberg's claims, and that's exactly what we're going to do here in this video. Today, Adam Rozencwajg,...

The US real estate market remains frozen. Transactions are at multi-decade lows, mortgage rates remain painfully high and home prices are at near record-levels of unaffordability. As we enter 2024, should we expect things to get better for housing, or worse? For answers, we turn to mortgage lending expert & housing analyst Melody Wright, who has been busy visiting many of America's most po...

The S&P 500 index closed at an all-time high yesterday (1.19.24).How much of a bullish signal is that for stocks for 2024? Maybe not as big of one as many think. Remember, over the past 2 years, stocks have returned 0%. Stocks are not at oversold reading at this point, meaning that there's not a lot of room to run higher before they become overbought. Plus, the potential looming challenges...

Rumors are suddenly flying fast and furious that the Federal Reserve will be soon ending its campaign of Quantitiave Tightening (aka QT). This is on top of the 3 rate cuts it recently guided the market to expect in 2024. Is the end of QT indeed imminent? If so what will the implications be? To discuss that, as well as the other major macro trends expected to impact markets most in 2024, we're...

It's a tough time to be an investor. There are cross-currents galore in the macro data, the financial headlines, policy decision-making, and market technicals. After the easy decade that followed the Great Financial Crisis where markets dependably churned higher year after year and you could make money just going long pretty much any stock or ETF and "buying the dips" along the way -...

The real money in investing is made by those who perceive what the markets are likely to do tomorrow, and then position themselves today to profit from that future action. Today's guest, Lakshman Achuthan, co-founded the Economic Cycle Research Institute specifically to identify these key turning points for investors. Which key turning points are in play right now? And how can we best take adv...

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts has long stated that it's not the inversion of the yield curve that means recession is near, it's when the curve un-inverts. Well, we're now starting to see the first un-inversions. The 2s-30s yield curve has steepened and is no longer inverted. Does that mean the recession countdown has begun? Lance and I discuss this as well as this week's surge in...

How stable is our current system -- economically, geo-politically and socially? The markets seem confident it's quite stable. But you don't have to look that hard to find evidence of stress fractures: from recessionary leading indicators, to struggling consumer households, to the frozen real estate market, to the breakdown of trade through the Red Sea, to the loss of faith in once-premier...

Well it's a new year and with it, I'm doing my best to bring important new voices into the discuss here at Thoughtful Money. And today we're fortunate to sit down with one of them: Cem Karsan, Founder, CIO, and Managing Principal of Kai Volatility Advisors, widely known as @jam_croissant on X/Twitter. He's one of the more requested names I've had from this audience and I'm...

Greed and exuberance returned to Wall Street as we ended 2023 and welcomed the start of 2024. Markets are trading near all-time highs, the Fed has switched to singing a more dovish tune, and confidence in a soft landing -- or no landing -- for the economy is high. Did we manage to emerge from all the chaos and distortion of the past few years without a major reckoning? Have we dodged the bullet of...

2024 has seen the worst start to the year for stocks in 20 years. Is this just a natural pullback from overbought extremes, or is there something more worrisome afoot? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts gives his answer in today's Weekly Market Recap. We also discuss the new payroll report that beat expectations, as well as the different story that appears when looking "under the hood"...

Nothing happens in an economy without energy.  And despite the current efforts & hopes to de-carbonize our energy systems, the world remains heavily dependent on oil -- especially as the dominant transport fuel in moving goods from point A to point B. Oil has had a rocky ride the past several years, with its price ranging from a high of $120/barrel to briefly negative prices at the height of t...

When I think back on all the experts I interviewed last year, the one whose market predictions played out most accurately is Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro. So what do his models tell him is likely to happen in 2024? In this video we ask the man himself. Follow Darius at https://42macro.com/Or on X/Twitter @dariusdale42 SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substa...

The past few years have been full of surprises, often going the exact opposite way that Wall Street expected at the start of each year. Well, as we prepare to enter 2024, it may help to tap the expertise of those investors who have been around the longest and been the most successful. High on that list is James Rogers, legendary international investor, financial commentator and author of several b...

We're all aware of how the pandemic threw the economy and financial markets into unprecedented disarray. And for the past two years, investors have eagerly awaited them to return back to a state of normalcy. But has "normal" changed vs the pre-COVID days? How much of the old playbook no longer works well, if at all, in today's world? For answers, we're fortunate to speak toda...

Wall Street was extremely pessimistic heading into 2023, and the year surprised to the upside. Here at the end of the year, markets are now brimming with optimism and the S&P is trading at an all-time high. Is the momentum likely to continue? Or will 2024 be another surprise year for investors, this time to the downside? For an analyst's perspective, we turn to Simon White, Macro Strategis...

2023, a year nearly everyone expected a recession, has instead seen impressive economic growth and the markets power to all-time highs. How did this happen? Especially as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates above 5% while conducting Quantitative Tightening? In a word: liquidity. Liquidity steadily rose throughout 2023 and, like an incoming ocean tide, rose all boats. How? Why? Where is it comi...

In this final Weekly Market Recap of 2024, portfolio manager Lance Roberts explains why a short-term correction in stocks (and bonds, too) is highly likely. They've simply move so far, so quickly that technically-speaking they are at dangerously high overbought extremes. He thinks such a pull-back will be short-lived though. There's little standing in the way of stock moving even higher as...

While 2023 was a much better year for stocks and bonds, the housing market has fared less well. Instead, 2023 was the year gravity caught up with home prices. They've stopped rising nationally for the most part, and certain once red-hot cities are now starting to see clear declines. Is this the Wile E. Coyote moment before prices start plummeting under today's high mortgage rates? Or will...