Thinking Basketball

Why are do superstars really play fewer minutes today? Does load management work? In this episode I take a deep dive into this hot button issue by looking at available data and unpacking some of the biomechanics involved in basketball. I also answer questions about true shooting percentage and share how my magic facial recognition powers led to some real-life magic. Support at www.patreon.com/thin...

#31: Ben Falk | The one-number debate, film in analytics & measuring defense by Ben Taylor experiments

The Athletic's Dave DuFour joins the podcast for a mega season preview of the upcoming 2020 season! We size up the playoff teams in each conference, the Terminator makes an appearance, and there's even a post show podcast for Patreon subscribers. Follow Dave @DaveDuFourNBA. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

In part III of our look at the aging curve, Danny Leroux, returns for a (less fun) foray into players we think are candidates to give way a bit to Father Time this year, or just take a meaningful step back for other reasons. Follow Danny on twitter @DannyLeroux. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

In part 2, Danny Leroux returns to round out our most likely breakout player candidates of 2020. Follow him on twitter @DannyLeroux. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

In part I, Danny Leroux, Athletic columnist, host of realgm radio and co-host of the Dunc'd On podcast joins me for a deep dive into the breakout player candidates of 2020. We focused mainly on under-25 players, looking at the “how” and “how much” of players likely to improve this year. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball Follow Danny @DannyLeroux

By popular demand, I took a crack at the All-Decade team for the 2010s by sizing up which players had the most championship equity over the last 10 years. I also discuss NBA.com's controversial choices (Kobe Bryant & Carmelo Anthony) and some interesting omissions along with a brief discussion about MVP criteria. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

An exploration of young volume scorers on really bad teams. What happens historically when these players are surrounded by better talent? How often are their numbers “empty?” And how does that influence our perception of young, exciting players like Devin Booker and Zach LaVine? Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

A look at the greatest playmakers in NBA history using an updated model that balances shot creation, passing ability, turnovers and teammates/team performance to figure out who made life the easiest for their teammates. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

Draft expert Cole Zwicker joins to discuss draft concepts, draft philosophy, and provide an in-depth breakdown of how this year's rookies fit on their new teams. Following him @colezwicker on twitter. www.thestepien.com. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

I dive into the final minutes of the NBA Finals and the incredible on-court stories that history might completely forget. Also some reflections on the series as a whole and thoughts on the value of Anthony Davis after the reported Pelicans-Lakers trade. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

After Game 4, an in-depth breakdown of key players like Steph Curry, how Toronto succeeded on offense against a depleted Warriors defense, the emerging brilliance of Nick Nurse, and Fred Van Vleet's defense / phonetics. I also discuss Kawhi Leonard's narrative along with Kevin Durant and the Warriors supporting cast. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

Former Brooklyn Nets assistant coach Steve Jones Jr. stops by for hardcore Xs & Os on the Warriors-Raptors, his theory about Golden State’s “data collection,” adjustments for the rest of the series, Kevin Durant’s defensive value & Toronto’s 2nd-best player. Follow Steve on twitter @stevejones20. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

Are the Rockets doomed with their analytics-driven style? Should midrange jumpers make a comeback? In this episode I address the controversy around “letting nerds tell you how to play” and the idea that strategic decisions are separate from on-court skills. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

The Athletic's Dave DuFour stops by to discuss the greatness of Steph Curry, similarities between Kawhi Leonard and Michael Jordan and why some Toronto players won't shoot. Follow him @DaveDuFourNBA. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

Neil Paine of 538 stops by to discuss James Harden's controversial play style, the 3-point revolution, the emergence of the 76ers & some insight into just how influential analytics have become behind the scenes. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

Reactions to Game 1 between the Bucks and Celtics along with adjustments Milwaukee can make moving forward, overachieving in the playoffs, and brief thoughts on the other 3 second rounds series. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

Which 2019 rookies will become great shooters? Can we predict who will be a great shooter based on the beginning of their career and the years before they entered the NBA? What are the statistical patterns of the greatest shooters of the 3-point era? In this episode I explore some of the best shooters ever and their shooting profiles along with forecasting the best shooters of this year's rookies....

How many players became superstars by blowing through their ceiling? How often are we surprised by guys becoming better than we could have ever expected? In this episode, I discuss ~20 superstars who entered the league since 1997 and how many of them achieved their potential, and how many reached amazing heights in some unexpected manner. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

Former Spurs & Clippers video coordinator Mo Dakhil (@MoDakhil_NBA) stops by to size up Xs and Os among the Celtics, Bucks, 76ers and Raptors. We discuss how to watch a game, Toronto’s 2 different offenses, tradeoffs with defensive schemes for Milwaukee and playoff-defining movie speeches from Draft Day and Any Given Sunday. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

After biting off more than I can chew, I try to list the next best group of players -- the "Sub All-Star Team" -- after the top 25 or so players in the league. I also weigh in on Philadelphia and Toronto and their big deadline moves. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

With new trends toward spacing and faster pace, how valuable are the best defenders in the league in 2019? Also, is James Harden's scoring binge during his hot streak conducive to championship-level basketball? Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

The reasons Ben Simmons is already close to his peak and why Donovan's Mitchell's sophomore slump is a bad omen for his future value as a prospect. Plus, the problem with Bill Simmons Trade Value philosophy. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

Sizing up Luka Doncic and his main ROY competitor Jaren Jackson, where these two exciting rookies rank among the all-time best first-year players in NBA history, and a controversial take on Michael Jordan's rookie year with a surprise pick for best rookie ever. Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball

The Bucks are off to an incredible start after a month – where does history say they will finish? How have other teams fared who started similarly? And what should we make of the huge numbers being put up by players around the league? Visual history spacing: http://www.backpicks.com/2017/11/02/the-history-of-nba-spacing/ Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball