The Weekly Insight

A few weeks ago, we talked about “immutable truths” in the world. Things that no one can argue about. And why – in financial markets – there really isn’t such a thing. We got a great reminder of that one Wednesday. Jerome Powell stepped to the podium after last week’s FOMC meeting and…wait for it…the market went UP! And it kept going up on Thursday and Friday. What in the world? Read more here: ht...

Tonight is Beggars' Night in Des Moines.  It’s a unique Halloween tradition that was caused by a strange (and ineffective) solution to an age-old problem (misbehaving kids!).  It reminds us a bit of the mess happening in Congress right now as we stare down yet another government shutdown in just 17 days.  Are we going to get a spooky result? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-...

There are a lot of things we take for granted in the world.  History, personal experiences, and public perceptions often build rock solid beliefs.  But sometimes, when you look back, you can’t exactly nail down where the belief originated.  That got us thinking about the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.  Why is it 2%? How did that level become the presumed correct amount of inflation?  Who c...

Last week we saw a divergence of confidence. On the world stage, the ongoing battle between Israel and Hamas has caused concern worldwide. On our shores, we started to see earnings for Q3 – notably from the big banks – which fed optimism in equity markets. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-earnings-and-israel/

Imagine for a second we were in the midst of a 45% correction in equities.  Panic would rule the airwaves. Fear selling would dominate the markets. We know because it happened 15 years ago.    But what if we told you that the bond market is down more than 45% from its peak?  That has significant impacts as well – and may create some significant opportunities.  Read more here: https://insightwealth...

It was Fed week again.  We’ve tried hard to talk about other things for the last few weeks, but Chairman Powell, inflation, and interest rates are the elephant in the room.  The market didn’t like the supposed “hawkish pause” on Wednesday.  But we think there might be something a little more dovish in Powell’s comments. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-a-position-t...

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that there’s a little drama roiling the markets right now.  The UAW strike combined with the possibility of a government shutdown has folks on edge.  But is that attitude justified? What does history tell us? And what might the real market consequences be? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-strikes-and-shutdowns-oh-my/

There has been a lot of talk about China recently, highlighted by their newest move to ban iPhones for Chinese government employees.  But the tale of the relations between the two largest economies of the world has been changing for some time now as our economic fortunes become less and less linked. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-red-dragon/

This week, we look at some very interesting economic data that came out last week including: the impact of Swifties on consumer spending, a slowly normalizing labor market, and the impact hurricanes can have on the economy. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-swifties-unite/

Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave his much anticipated “Jackson Hole” speech on Friday.  After last year’s hard-hitting speech on the inflation battle, this year’s comments were highly anticipated.  Powell’s comments were much calmer this year, and the market loved them.  But they also gave some signs about things to come. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-more-thing...

August has not been the best month in the markets this year. Interestingly enough, that’s consistent with nearly 40 years of history as it ranks as the worst month of market returns going back all the way to 1986. But is this the start of something bad? Or is the market just taking a breath in our current bull rally.  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-august-never-f...

It was inflation week again last week – the first of two before the next Fed meeting.  And the results were interesting.  Some called it a “hot” reading.  Others thought it wasn’t so bad.  But what we did see, in both CPI and PPI, was a slight tick up.  But part of that is tied to the math around the “base case”. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-base-case/

After months of the focus being on the Fed and interest rates, we got a surprise from left field: Fitch downgraded the U.S.A.’s credit rating. Given the “validity of the public debt” is quite literally written into the U.S. Constitution, it was a telling moment. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-the-validity-of-the-public-debt/

It was Fed Week last week, and the market was hanging on Jerome Powell’s words at the podium. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-are-we-there-yet/

An interesting thing has happened since the Fed – against the belief of most of the market – announced they were going to raise rates twice more this year: no one cared. The market is up strongly since the last Fed meeting as inflation has fallen along with recession expectations. So what does that mean for this week’s Fed meeting (and likely rate increase)?  Read more here: https://insightwealthg...

Last week was a remarkable week for the markets in that – as we anticipate another rate hike next week – we got some fantastic inflation and economic data. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-embrace-the-good/

We hope this week finds you well rested after the 4th of July Holiday!  The market was a little sluggish last week as many on Wall Street were out for the break. But there was a lot of news from the Fed, and we are – bluntly – dumbfounded by some of their comments.  Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-data-dependent/

Chairman Powell went in front of Congress last week and made sure everyone got his message: more rate hikes are coming.  And the market is taking note as we push for “sufficiently restrictive” interest rate policy.  But what is “sufficient”?  Is the Fed just intent on ramming us into a recession?  Are we close to one? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-sufficient-eno...

It was Fed Week last week. The long and short of it? Only Jerome Powell can make the first pause in rate hikes in 14 months seem like a punishment! But the market is handling it well. And we got substantively good inflation data last week to go with it. Take a look and let us know your thoughts! Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-threading-the-needle

The big news last week was that the S&P has officially entered into “bull market” territory.  That’s great news – and we’re never ones to look a gift horse in the mouth.  But just how durable is this bull market? And what might throw it off track?  Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-fattening-the-bull/

One down, one to go. Washington walked us right up to the edge of a default debacle, but, in an extraordinary showing of bipartisanship, passed a debt ceiling deal that avoided catastrophe (and ensured we don’t have to worry about it again until 2025). So now we’re on to the next problem: is the Fed done raising rates? We take a look at what’s coming for the Fed meeting next week. Read more here:...

The debt ceiling debate continues to be the driver for market messaging this week. But there is some uncertainty of just how urgent the deadline is. And once – if – we get a resolution, there are some promising signs on the other side. Read more here:  https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-x-date/

It was CPI week last week – and the results were solid. But the media shifted its focus to a different inflation gauge: “Super Core” inflation. What does it mean? And why is it important? Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-super-core/

It was Fed week again. And again, the market’s initial response to Chairman Powell’s comments was…less than optimistic.  But a funny thing happened after the meeting.  Folks started to understand that the likelihood of a “pause” in rate hikes is real.  And Powell’s optimism on the economy seeped into the market on Friday. Read more here: https://insightwealthgroup.com/the-weekly-insight-cleared-fo...

Last week was a fairly uneventful week in the market as the world waits for the results of the upcoming FOMC meeting (this Wednesday).  So in this week’s edition of the Weekly Insight Podcast, we take the opportunity to look at the debate over the debt ceiling.  This issue, while likely to be resolved, has the potential to be very damaging to our economy if the politicians screw it up.  Read more...