The Week Ahead

On our first story for today, Nigeria’s Debt Office raised ₦2.2 trillion from its ₦300 billion Sukuk offer, showing strong investor interest with a 735% oversubscription. At the same time, the Central Bank is lowering interest rates.  Meanwhile, a $5 billion oil-backed loan deal with Saudi Aramco has stalled due to falling oil prices and Nigeria’s low oil production.  What do these mean for Nigeri...

Today is Biafra Memorial Day, which for a lot of Igbo people is a day that remembers the brutality of Nigeria's civil war that ended 55 years ago. Earlier in the week, SBM Intel published a report on the impact of secessionist sit-at-home protests that have been affecting Southeast Nigeria since 2021. Our study found that the protest action has cost the region at least $4.8 billion in lost re...

France-Algeria relations have worsened following mutual diplomatic expulsions. At the same time, al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM claimed to have killed 200 soldiers in a major attack on a military base in northern Burkina Faso. What steps can be taken to restore diplomatic ties and improve regional security? Nigeria's Senate is considering a bill to create a single agency for managing assets recovere...

More than 52 million people in West and Central Africa are projected to face food insecurity during the June–August season, driven by conflict, climate shocks, and rising food inflation. The World Food Programme warns that nearly 3 million people could face emergency hunger. How can governments and multilaterals prepare for escalating food crises in fragile regions? Nigeria's Labour Party has...

This week, it was reported that the Trump administration plans to slash $555 million in funding for the African Development Bank’s main development fund as part of sweeping cuts to foreign aid. What does the future hold for the AfDB?  Renaissance Energy halted oil shipments through the Okordia-Rumuekpe pipeline in Rivers State due to a suspected sabotage-induced spill. What are the long-term impli...

Ghana has temporarily agreed with Gold Fields to continue mining while awaiting parliamentary approval. At the same time, Atlantic Lithium is pleading for tax relief amid falling global prices. Meanwhile, the country’s oil production continues to drop, with output declining for the fifth year. What steps can Ghana take to manage its natural resources better and attract sustainable investment?  In...

A leaked memo from the U.S. State Department indicates that the Trump administration is weighing reducing America's diplomatic presence in Africa as part of its broader effort to slash government spending. How could a smaller U.S. presence affect diplomatic ties and development efforts across Africa?  Nigeria has taken a significant step toward regional economic integration by submitting its...

France and Algeria have restored ties after months of tension over France’s support for Morocco’s Western Sahara plan. Meanwhile, Algeria banned Mali flights after shooting down a drone. Could Algeria’s renewed friendship with France worsen its relations with Sahel neighbours? At least 52 people were killed in recent attacks on six villages in Nigeria's Plateau State. In Kebbi State, 16 vigil...

President Bola Tinubu has appointed a new board for the NNPC, intending to increase oil sector investments and raise production to 2 million barrels. How effective will the new board be in achieving these ambitious targets? Meanwhile, seven opposition states are suing President Tinubu over his suspension of elected officials in Rivers State, claiming it violates the Nigerian Constitution. What imp...

Some Nigerian leaders have argued that Western-style democracy does not work well in Africa. Former President Obasanjo called for a new system. How can Nigeria create a democratic system that aligns with its cultural and political realities? Fulani herder-farmer violence in Nigeria has escalated into a nationwide security threat. A new report by SBM Intelligence examines this conflict and highligh...

The US expelled South Africa’s ambassador, Ebrahim Rasool. This rare diplomatic action intensified tensions between the two nations. How might this expulsion impact US-South Africa relations moving forward? Rwanda has severed diplomatic ties with Belgium, accusing it of undermining the country amid the conflict between the DRC and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. How could this diplomatic rift affect...

NNPC first announced that had stopped supplying crude to local refineries, including Dangote, then announced that it was renegotiating with Dangote. How will this affect fuel prices and Nigeria’s economy in the coming months? The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria opposes a new law that significantly increases financial charges on businesses. What impact will this law have on Nigeria’s business...

According to our report "Price of Everything", despite rising food prices and living costs, Nigerians continue to spend on streaming and cable TV. Internet use is also increasing despite a 50% hike in data prices. Without action to stabilise the economy and boost food production, inflation will keep hurting households. How can both food and digital services become more affordable?   Oust...

Thousands of Nigerians who fled to Chad due to the Boko Haram insurgency have started returning to Maiduguri, Borno State. What challenges might these returnees face as they reintegrate into their communities?   Nigeria is preparing to conduct its first national population and housing census since 2006, incorporating biometric and digital technology. How can Nigeria ensure the credibility and accu...

Nigeria’s inflation rate fell to 24.48% in January 2025 from 34.8% in December after the government updated how it measures inflation, reducing the impact of food prices in the calculation and adjusting the weights for housing and transport. How will this new inflation calculation affect the cost of living? Lawmakers moved four tax bills forward despite disagreements. The general VAT rate will ris...

Valentine’s Day has become a major spending event in the country, with gifts, dining, and entertainment driving consumer activity. Traditional gifts remain popular, but experiential gifts are also in demand. How did businesses that adapt to evolving preferences position to benefit from this growing market? President Bola Tinubu has requested the National Assembly to increase the 2025 budget by ₦4....

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have officially left ECOWAS on January 29, 2025. However, ECOWAS will maintain diplomatic ties, recognise their passports, and allow trade under existing agreements while keeping communication channels open. How might this exit affect regional stability and cooperation in West Africa?     Nigeria’s oil regulator will deny export permits to producers who don’t meet loc...

Boko Haram killed at least 20 fishermen in Borno State, and ISWAP fighters attacked a Nigerian military base in Malam-Fatori, killing 20 soldiers. The militants surprised the troops with gun trucks and gunfire, burning buildings and forcing people to flee. How can Nigeria better protect its people and military from these insurgent attacks? Rwandan-backed M23 rebels entered Goma, the DRC's lar...

Nigeria's BVN enrollments reached 64.83 million by January 2025, and the CBN introduced new platforms and accounts to simplify fund transfers and investments for Nigerians abroad. How will these initiatives improve financial inclusion for Nigerians in the diaspora? Environmentalists oppose restarting oil production in Ogoniland, demanding a $1 trillion cleanup and implementation of a U.N. rep...

During China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit, President Tinubu urged expanding the $2 billion currency swap, revisiting the $50 billion Africa aid package, and supporting Nigeria's UN Security Council bid. China pledged deeper cooperation and implementing FOCAC agreements, and the China Development Bank granted Nigeria a $254.76 million loan for the Kano-Kaduna railway project. H...

Nigeria's poor road infrastructure poses a significant economic burden, costing the country billions of naira annually in lost productivity and resources. SBM recently surveyed 245 commercial drivers across eight major hubs, and we saw widespread dissatisfaction with road conditions. We talk about the report. Landmark Africa, known for the Landmark Beach Resort in Lagos, plans to relocate its...

For our final podcast of the year, we’ll review 2024 highlights and look ahead to 2025 using SBM’s The Year Ahead Report. Regarding the economy, we think that oil prices in 2025 will stay steady at $65-$75 per barrel. Nigeria’s oil production may fall short of its 2 million barrels/day target, hitting 1.8 million instead. We expect GDP to grow by 3.5%, but inflation could remain high at 28%. Tax r...

This week in Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria fined Moniepoint and OPay ₦1 billion ($578,000) each in Q2 2024 for compliance violations, adding to its regulatory clampdown. Are these measures necessary for financial stability, or could they hinder fintech innovation? Meanwhile, the country recorded a ₦5.81 trillion trade surplus in Q3 2024, with exports surging 98% from last year. While this m...

This week, it's all about Ghana. The country is preparing for Sunday's elections and is set to go to the polls to elect a new president. The political landscape is heating up as candidates gear up for a highly competitive race. Then, Ghana's Jubilee oil field production dropped to 89,000 barrels per day due to issues with the J69-P well and downtime at Ghana Gas Company. Ghana also...

After being idle for a couple of decades, the 59-year-old Port Harcourt Refinery suddenly resumed operations. With an initial production capacity of 60,000 barrels per day, this marks a major step in reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel. How quickly will this impact fuel supply and stabilize the domestic market? The National Bureau of Statistics reported that Nigeria’s economy grew by 3....