The Sharpe End

In an election extravaganza of a year the team discuss how they will navigate the many political changes which may be ahead, particularly in the UK where a change in the occupancy of Number 10 seems highly likely. Diversification is the goal of any multi-asset manager, but just how do you achieve it and how has a world of higher interest rates changed that? The team outline the latest on this all-...

With plenty of debate about the state of the US economy, whether the inflation dragon is slain or not, if the landing will be a soft one, and when the Fed might start cutting rates, the team discuss whether the US economic porridge is too hot, too cold or just right. The US consumer is next on the menu as some recent weakness in areas of consumer spending has the team pondering if these shifts in...

While the US economy and markets seemingly look in a pretty good place right now, the team discuss one of the potential flies in the ointment: US commercial real estate. Many worries have been floated about large cuts to office property values – are they valid? And if so what second order impacts could there be? The focus then turns eastward to the rise of Japan’s stock market and increased invest...

The Magnificent Seven was the buzz phrase of 2023 as seven stocks drove so much of the return from US equity markets. America isn't the only place with a concentration issue though: it’s the same picture in Europe and the UK. The team look forward and discuss what risks and opportunities may lie ahead as a result of this phenomenon. They then turn to the defence sector and why there might be s...

After the roller coaster that was 2023, the team discuss getting their bearings for the year ahead. Then, speaking of creaking behemoth structures in need of investment, they explain why they’ve been buying general infrastructure funds for the first time ever. Finally, a new portfolio holding is German medtech company Carl Zeiss, which specialises in cutting-edge tools for eye health. Perhaps some...

It’s that time of year again where the whole Sharpe End team get together for the Christmas Special and become David’s judge and jury on the predictions he made for 2023 at the end of last year. Did David’s crystal ball serve him well in calling what happens to the bond markets, commodity markets, equity markets, and a few more random areas too!? Last year David managed 5.5 points, an advance on t...

Is US President Joe Biden’s huge infrastructure stimulus bending the US Treasury yield curve more than Beckham at the dead ball? Moderating inflation hasn’t stopped long-term US Treasury bond yields from whipping higher (and therefore prices falling sharply) in the past couple of months – could it be worries around government spending and the much larger amount of bonds being sold at auction? Mean...

The team discuss the very different approaches to government investment in the US and UK and how this impacts the relative attractiveness of those economies. Next-generation weight loss drugs have grabbed the headlines of late, but unpicking the long-term impacts of these treatments on businesses is fraught with difficulty. Then, in the interests of balance, the team turn to alcohol and burgers as...

With an array of UK retailers struggling and the housing market slump deepening, the team discuss managing exposure to the UK and why they are keeping an eye on the escalating government clampdown on Airbnb. Also, in recognition of National Inclusion Week, the team share how they think about diversity when investing and why Nike, one of the few consumer stocks they hold, is one company that has na...

The team cast their minds back to the days before we knew what COVID was and when inflation was considered conquered to review an investment report they published in 2019 called Ditch the Models. Which of these models the team suggested ditching panned out the way they expected? And are there any others that could do with being ditched today? The swiftly growing animal health sector is the final t...

The chemicals sector is often the canary in the economic coal mine, so a spate of profit warnings spark a discussion among the team. Meanwhile, is the pent-up demand from COVID-delayed elective surgeries finally coming on stream, and what would it mean for med-tech companies? Finally, the team takes a deep dive on German industrial giant Siemens, which has spent a decade reshaping its business. Th...

Commodities have fallen from their lofty 2022 heights, so are they starting to get interesting again? The team discuss the fortunes of everything from foodstuffs to metals through energy, given the ever-changing backdrop for commodities. Meanwhile, is AI the revolutionary force people are excited about, or another fad generating a bout of market hype? Will long-time holding Adobe, a digital market...

Is America approaching the finish line for interest rate hikes? The team discuss the latest from the other side of the pond, including all the fun of the debt ceiling political football. Meanwhile, are the fears and stresses in the commercial property market signs of an opportunity or a justified warning to stay well away? That leads the team to ponder US insulation and roofing business, Owens Cor...

Given all the recession chat, Rahab tries to bring some positivity to this episode and challenges Will and David to build a bull case for investing. Following the UK’s Green Day announcements, the team also discuss why it seems net-zero is falling down the priority list, what this means for electric vehicles and why they believe global auto technology company Aptiv could be the winner in this spac...

Trying to unpick the turmoil in the banking sector, the team discuss what happened in the last week or so and what it means for the future, and explain what action they’ve taken as a result. Their gaze then shifts to our fair shores as they ask whether, after a few years in the investment wilderness, the UK could be on the precipice of some structural changes that might support the economy and per...

Could David’s usual prediction of US stocks beating European ones come a cropper this year? The team also explain why US real estate investment trusts are a different ball game for them vs the UK market, and where there are some exciting opportunities. Finally, the team turn a loving, Valentine’s Day gaze towards European luxury goods giant LVMH and discuss just why the company’s resilient earning...

The team kick off 2023 discussing the outlook for the year ahead: what stays the same, what changes, and why it’s important not to overreact simply because there’s a new calendar adorning our desks. They also discuss whether consumers trading down in household staples will mean less-resilient revenues, and why they think global skincare and cosmetics giant Estee Lauder presents a different story t...

Join the whole Sharpe End team for the Christmas special edition where Craig, Rahab, and Will hold David to account for his predictions for 2022. Just how well did David call the fortunes of the UK economy? How accurate were his views on speculative technology and cryptocurrency? And, importantly, did he beat last year’s score of 4.5 points!? This podcast was recorded on 7 December 2022. Rathbones...

With all the shenanigans since our last episode, is the UK now a relative beacon of political stability? If so, does that move the dial for the prices of British assets? The team explain why capital discipline and the resiliency of ad revenue are the order of the day for them given recent weaker earnings from the US tech giants. Finally, do political shifts in China change the long-term picture fo...

The team ponder whether, after the not-so-mini reaction to the Chancellor’s ‘mini-budget’, it’s finally time to buy UK bonds again or whether US Treasuries still look a better place for capital, and explain how they are tackling currency exposure in the face of a continually volatile pound. Also, what does the return to a world of higher costs of capital and risk-free rates mean for markets, and h...

Have US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole spooked the team as much as they spooked the market? This month, David, Will, and Craig also discuss how much attention to pay to the weakening US housing market, and finally touch on the video game industry and how it should remain an exciting place to invest for many years to come. This podcast was recorded on 1 September 2022. Rathbones...

We may have (finally) reached peak inflation, argue David, Will and Rahab this month. Also, they explain how the Tory leadership campaign made them reassess the benefits and pitfalls of deregulation, and why they think water is an exciting investment theme for their portfolios. Rathbones multi-asset investing team: David Coombs, Head of Multi-Asset Investments Will McIntosh-Whyte, Fund Manager, Ra...

This month, David, Will and Craig discuss the wide-ranging impacts of the energy market’s current stresses and complexities. Also, despite some expected post-pandemic catch-up in consumer services spending, the team aren’t tempted by many businesses that have benefited. Finally, they discuss the departure of Prime Minister Boris Johnson in real time and what it might mean for fiscal policy and the...

Why is credit starting to look attractive to David, Will and Craig for the first time in quite a while? Also, the team question how resilient consumer staples companies may be in the current environment and explain why they are still comfortable with composite decking manufacturer Trex despite a tough year so far. Rathbones multi-asset investing team: David Coombs, Head of Multi-Asset Investments...

This month, David, Will and Craig discuss managing a portfolio in a bear market and avoiding the pitfalls of emotional decisions, their love/hate relationship with the hamster wheel of earnings season, and why – despite attracting the attention of a rather eccentric billionaire – pure play social media companies have never really turned their heads. Rathbones multi-asset investing team: David Coom...