The Science of Politics

As politicians polarize, Americans are also sorting into clearer partisan camps who dislike the other side. What reinforces that cycle? Perhaps both our social relationships and our increasingly unequal society. Tobias Konizter finds that Americans are increasingly selecting spouses based on partisanship and then passing on our political views to our children. But John Kuk finds that economic ineq...

The Tea Party that arose in 2009 seemed initially focused on bailouts, health care, and taxes. But new research suggests that concerns about cultural change and distrust of distant elites, the same themes that drove Trump supporters, were also central to the Tea Party—not just in the electorate but among activists and even for aligned Members of Congress. Bryan Gervais finds that Tea Partiers in C...

Citizens have views on policy issues but are often ignorant about the specific stances of politicians and interest groups. How do they match their issue positions to candidates and causes and how well do their choices line up with their professed views? Cheryl Boudreau finds that low-information voters can utilize everything from party endorsements to voter guides to match their views to a candida...

How Campaign Money Has Changed Elections After Citizens United by Niskanen Center

We already know that Brett Kavanaugh will be a strong conservative on the Supreme Court, just like Neil Gorsuch, but not because of confirmation hearing vetting. Both were handpicked by the Federalist Society network, giving conservatives the assurances they need and making liberals want to ask tough questions that may not get answered. Amanda Hollis-Brusky finds that the Federalist Society engine...

State and local politics are losing ground to national politics in the minds of Americans. What do we learn from nationalized coverage and what do we increasingly ignore? Daniel Hopkins finds that we are losing state and local knowledge and voting increasingly along party lines, as we move from local to national media sources. Kerri Malita finds that even nationalized political coverage may not in...

From Russian trolls to racist rhetoric, Facebook has been blamed for the divisive 2016 presidential election. Does Facebook direct users to diverse information or to fake news and ads that misinform, making us hate the other side? Michael Beam finds that Facebook users actually saw more information from the other political side in 2016; he finds no evidence that Facebook polarized our attitudes. B...

Are Americans losing faith in democracy as our norms erode? Lee Drutman finds that support for democracy remains high, but Democrats and Republicans are increasingly polarized around authoritarian impulses, as Republicans follow Donald Trump's lead. David Adler finds that people who place themselves in the middle of the ideological spectrum are the most skeptical of democracy, in Europe and the Un...

Public debate on genetic research often assumes that conservatives will prefer genetic explanations for human differences, while liberals will point to environmental factors—perhaps exacerbating political divides on race. But Stephen Schneider finds that conservatives prefer explanations based on personal choice; attributing individual differences to genetics is associated with liberalism and high...

Unions recently took some hits in Republican states, but now teachers’ strikes are pushing back and winning. Can unions still be influential in Red America, when they are mostly in the public sector? And are they out to defend their own interests or to play a broader social role? Laura Bucci finds that despite declines, unions still help reduce inequality across states—through policy and the labor...

Many say California Republicans’ anti-immigration ballot initiatives in the 1990s lost them the Latino vote and set the party on the road to ruin. Is Trump leading national Republicans down the same failed path? Iris Hui finds that the propositions were not the tipping point, with Republicans starting to lose ground beforehand and feeling the brunt of their shifts only with the next generation. Jo...

We’re increasing defense spending and launching military strikes—and we’re putting it all on the national credit card. That may be no coincidence. Sarah Kreps finds that Americans are more supportive of wars when they are financed through debt rather than taxes. Across the world, Matt DiGiuseppe finds that a nation's creditworthiness leads to more military spending, especially in response to threa...

White racial attitudes play a strong role in voter attitudes from Barack Obama to Donald Trump, but whites think it’s black voters who decide based on race. Darren Davis finds a racial double standard, where racially resentful whites think blacks vote based on race alone. Randall Swain finds Trump benefited from white racial stereotypes and attracted those unconcerned about police use of force aga...

Public opinion and political parties are dividing across states, but is public policy following these differences, with conservative publics and majority Republican parties enacting more conservative policies? Christopher Warshaw finds shifts in state public opinion are reflected in policy, but not always through majority parties. Mark Richardson finds that majority state parties still need to win...

Democrats and Republicans are sorting ideologically and socially and we’re developing more negative opinions of one another. Are we dividing into two irreconcilable tribes—or just tuning out both parties? Liliana Mason talks about new research showing our partisan identity is stronger when our ethnic, religious, and ideological identities are strong and linked to our party’s predominant groups. Bu...

Trust in government is low and declining after another polarized election and in a polarizing administration. We're frustrated, even angry, but maybe we still hold some underlying pride in our government. Steven Webster finds that anger decreases trust, whether it's directed toward the candidates or life in general. But Stephen Nicholson says we still hold implicit trust in government that can be...

2017 saw protest movements return with a vengeance, as millions protested Donald Trump at marches for women, science, immigration, & more. But will that translate into public opinion shifts or electoral mobilization in 2018? Dana Fisher finds a lot of cross-over in concerns and participation across a year of big protests and signs it is translating into electoral mobilization. Nazita Lajevardi fin...

2016 brought a lot of change in presidential primaries, but mostly continuity in House and Senate primaries. How will the candidates gain party support and win votes in this year's crowded primary season? Hans Hassell says party elites and donors continue to decide the vast majority of primaries by clearing the field and providing support. Robert Boatright says the story of primaries as ideologica...

The U.S. has a long history of spending through the tax code, limiting revenue to provide benefits. But Congress just passed a major tax cut that limited some tax deductions, kept others, and expanded the child tax credit. How do the latest Republican efforts fit historical patterns? Christopher Faricy's recent article finds that Republicans usually limit credits and expand deductions, whereas Dem...

The filibuster effectively means 60 votes are usually required to take action in the Senate. But Senate majorities can make or change rules to get around it. In 2017, Republicans went "nuclear" on Supreme Court nominations and used reconciliation rules to pass tax cuts (but chose not to limit the scope of the Byrd Rule). New books by Molly Reynolds and James Wallner explain when Senate majority pa...

In many U.S. cities, Latinos and Asians are gaining population share in previously White- or Black-dominated areas. But the vast majority of cities still have white mayors, even those with majority-minority populations. So when do racial minorities gain representation and do they ally to support the same candidates? Paru Shah finds that majority-white and majority-black cities have resisted repres...

After every mass shooting, partisans retreat to their respective corners on gun control. The National Rifle Association, and the gun owners it represents, are critical forces in our politics, but they may be winning only with Republican voters and in Republican states. Matt Grossmann talks to Mark Joslyn about new research showing gun owners are moving further apart politically from non-gun-owners...

In its first few years, the House Freedom Caucus has helped take down a Speaker, choose another, and set the course of the health care debate in Congress. Matt Grossmann talks to Ruth Bloch Rubin about new research comparing them to other intra-party factions over a century of Congressional history, finding that they combine the strategies of their predecessors. He also talks to Andrew Clarke abou...

Despite increasing scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, the parties are growing increasingly divided. Matt Grossmann talks to Megan Mulling about new research on climate polarization, the factors that influence climate opinion, and how to manage the partisan divide. He also talks to Graham Dixon about a new experiment showing that highlighting free-market ideas alleviates conservat...

Democratic women make up three times the share of their congressional caucus as Republican women. Matt Grossmann talks to Danielle Thomsen about her new research on how the donor networks in each party help produce this divide. He also talks to Heather Ondercin about her new research showing that the gap among officeholders may be producing the big gender gap among voters, with women increasingly...