The Risk Takers Podcast

We are joined by Chris "Flupnolide" Dierkes - the most profitable bettor on Kalshi this month and a professional bettor not afraid to bet huge on great spots. Chris talks about scaling his betting from being a solo-bettor using OddsJam to running one of the bigger groups in operation. He also enjoys mixing it up on Twitter under the handle @flupnolide where you can find him posting some...

After two weeks of bad news - the boys start to feel some hope this episode and explain how they have improved their betting during breaks in their sports.  With the sports calendar at its lightest, they dig into why the offseason is a high-leverage window for bettors to optimize their workflows, trim dead weight, and tackle big projects. From cleaning code and cutting distractions to poking aroun...

Are you relying on twitter to tell you if you should quite gambling or not following the gambling tax disaster in the BBB? In this episode we sit down with Gary Kondler of Kondler & Associates - the gambling industry leading tax and consulting firm - to discuss the changes in the bill. From the myths that exploded on Twitter to the real-life tax nightmares facing poker pros, slot whales, and D...

 This week, GP and SP go deep on what's arguably the most pivotal week for the gambling world in years. From legislative crackdowns and lawsuits to tax chaos and rigging scandals, the crew delivers a comprehensive State of the Union for sports betting and its gray-market cousins. If you care about betting—legally, professionally, or recreationally—this is a must-listen.  0:00 – Opening Though...

We’re so back with part two of Flaming Hot Sharp Sports Betting Takes ! We offer some preeeety spicy opinions on: Why executing an edge beats finding one Embracing high-hold markets and "one-way" bets The value of betting first, asking questions later Why hating touts is no longer cool Whether being a pro bettor is a legit data science career Why going public with your gambling identity...

This week we learn how to make more money gambling from the lessons of "The Reverend" Thomas Bayes. His theorem is the backbone of every successful sports bettor (even if they don't know it). This week we walk through examples of priors, posteriors and general Bayesian betting hygiene. It's more electric than it sounds! Andrew Mack's Book: Amazon 0:00 Bayesian Thinking Int...

Second guest episode of the SP era - with a guy living the dream. Akash worked in the front offices of the New York Yankees and Miami Dolphins as well as a Google data scientist before leaving it all behind to be a full-time bettor. This builds on our recent modeling episodes as we take a jump from simple/ regression based models into the AI/ML blackbox. You can find Akash in the GP Discord under...

Have you ever projected a player to get 23.2 points and wondered if under 24.5 -115 was a +EV bet? The answer to this question and more can be found in this magic, exciting, adrenaline pumping thing called...distributions! This week the lads follow up their episode on making your own numbers with an episode on how to turn those numbers into probabilities. And the news section gets very speculative...

Feeling overwhelmed when considering the jump from +EV betting to building your own model? We don't blame you. The little content there is out there on how to get started makes it sound impossible. But the reality is, in the beginning, it's rather straightforward. In this episode, the boys help you get started with your first sports betting model before getting into the news and Q&A...

GP slowly realizes he's a DFS fish as he recaps his high stakes PGA Championship lineup building strategy to SP. SP breaks down what a winning sports bettor needs to do to win in DFS (and vice-versa) SP then weighs in on Underdog allowing RTA following GP's rant last episode and the boys discuss why the state of Wyoming determined anyone who wins betting is a cheater. Questions range fro...

GP flies solo this week and takes the opportunity to ramble on about his journey from mediocre poker player to pretty good sports bettor. (This includes a quick double-up on the signing bonus he got in business school) The news is dominated by the Real Time Assistance tool ETR released for Underdog best ball drafts. If you think that's the story - you're wrong. Because Underdog comes out...

This episode has it all. GP's childish morning routine, what music you should listen to while modeling, and some hot takes based on a cursory glance at the news. The Q&A is dominated by a great question at the end regarding how achievable year-over-year profits are by someone who never models or scales a betting group. Remember to join the discord (link below) if you want your question on...

"How can I make my accounts last longer?" This is the question de jour - and in this episode, we discuss both answers to this question AND if this is even the right question to be asking... We also spend a lot of time discussing Caesers stiffing Josk McPeek $800k. This leads to interesting discussions on "when is a bet a bet", kiosk jamming, slow cashouts, and more. Then some g...

Very special 100th episode where GP and SP reflect on the current sports betting ecosystem, the goal of the podcast and the best way to incorporate sports betting content into your process. News includes a game-changing CFTC chair nomination, debate over a void at ProphetX, and the SAFE act keeps marching us towards our eventual doom. To cap it off - the longest Q&A in podcast history. We took...

0:00 Intro 1:20 Backtesting - All you need to know 40:08 News 1:09:00 Listener Q&A Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__P...

0:00 Intro 3:00 Betting Big Events 56:38 News 1:20:32 Listener Q&A 1:44:10 Masters Locks (after the Masters started) Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it. Follow SportsProjections o...

Today we have a very special episode. The first "edge graveyard" where we bring on a guest, talk about their betting strategies - and most importantly all share some of our favorite dead edges. Today's guest is Mike, aka @MetroPassMike on Twitter. He's a very sharp bettor who was able to squeeze a quarter million dollars out of his PERSONAL LIMITED REC ACCOUNTS in 2024. Crazy s...

0:00 Intro 1:30 How to Determine Confidence in Edges 38:12 Robinhood under fire & sweeps updates 55:36 Florida regulator "hit & runs" Prizepicks & Underdog 1:06:48 What to do when exchanges show huge liquidity? 1:16:41 Should there be minimum bet requirements? (No) 1:26:30 Making life easier for P2s 1:40:10 What to do when you get stiffed? 1:52:45 How to increase your skills...

0:00 Intro 3:00 What are exchanges and how do they work? 28:34 Strategies for Profiting at Exchanges 49:15 Robinhood Sports Betting 55:36 Novelty Markets on Sweeps 1:10:38 John Oliver on Sports Betting 1:31:00 Q&A: Account Priming 1:55:20 Q&A: PPH 2:06:38 Q&A: Best time spent/ money made ratio and future episode topics Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports b...

0:00 Intro 2:49 How to go from top down to bottom up betting 48:13 SAFE Act 1:01:38 Catastrophic week for Sweepstakes  1:13:17 Hardrock somehow not biggest sportsbook in Florida 1:18:44 DK to enter prediction markets 1:24:21 Should I be a bookmaker? 1:29:27 What to do with limited accounts? 1:43:15 Is peer-to-peer betting a good next step after getting hit with limits? Welcome to The Risk Takers P...

0:00 Intro 2:25 Adverse Selection Deep Dive  40:35 Betting News 1:14:35 How to Tell your Friends & Family You are a Pro Degen 1:27:11 Live EV Betting v. Live Arbing 1:34:25 Dealing with Downswings 1:52:37 Why GP NO MORE PICKS?!? Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting educatio...

0:00 Intro 2:25 Kelly is flat out wrong 11:50 Odds screens are useless 19:00 Account priming is astrology for dudes 31:55 You need to be technical to be a great originator 39:00 Buy more picks, subscribe to more discords 45:50 Sharp books - not as sharp as we think? 52:40 Hot takes that missed the cut 59:00 NASCAR Parimutuel 1:20:40 Sweeps update/ WPT Gold 1:28:20 How to get betting to fit into yo...

0:00 Intro 1:33 Is it more profitable to be a "Specialist" or "Generalist" in sports betting? 42:16 iGaming legal blows a bad thing for sports betting? 53:51 How can sports betting skills transfer to other ventures / life? 1:04:55 Should you bonus churn with a $200k bankroll? 1:14:50 When should you take your bankroll and invest it elsewhere? 1:32:26 Does 1-click bet burn your...

0:00 Intro 0:33 What Sports Betting Market Should YOU Attack? 26:45 Super Bowl Betting 29:00 Health of Industry 35:45 Sweeps Trouble 45:40 Listener Q &A 46:15 Live Betting Tips 57:45 Are Futures Worth it? 1:09:15 How to Betsize for Parlays 1:16:40 Automation v. Hand Adjustments - How to Balance 1:32:06 Will Perception of Sports Betting & Sports Bettors Get Less Negative? Welcome to The Ris...

Wow - very important and historic episode. My good friend SportsProjections joins the podcast as a permanent co-host and we start to actually have structure to our episodes. Each week we will bring you the same educational deep-dives as always, but now we will be addressing any news that's relevant to someone looking to make money betting and answering audience Q&A. If you want your quest...