The Red Line

When Lukashenko released the now infamous Russian war plans map he raised alarm bells throughout Europe, signalling that Russia may be looking to conquer Ukraine first and Moldova second. The war has taken a drastic turn since that point, but the question of Moldovan security still looms over the Northern Balkans. Could reunification with Romania be a back door entry into EU membership and protect...

Most Latin American ambassadors tell the same story. Whilst every meeting with the US revolves around China, every meeting with the Chinese revolves around infrastructure. Beijing is making huge economic moves into South and Central America, but what is the US doing to counter it?  On the show this week.  - Margaret Myers (American Dialogue) - Evan Ellis (US Army War College) - Paul Angelo (CFR) F...

War is an increasingly complicated operation, and these days most battles are fought on excel spreadsheets as much as they are in the field. The US has just launched a barrage of sanctions against long time rival Russia, a far bigger fish than the usual target of such an economic attack. When the US sanctions Venezuela or Iran the blowback domestically is minimal, but what happens when sanctions a...

Oman has for decades now pitched itself as the "Switzerland of the Middle East", holding a steady course of neutrality above all. Staying neutral though is a luxury afforded by good times, a luxury that can be forcefully taken away by others.  As the dynamics of the Middle East begin to change, and multipolar completion intensifies in the region can Oman maintain its current course, or will it be...

The higher the temperature, the higher the chance of a fire. With the current myriad of crises in West Africa, we are witnessing a frightening rise in the geopolitical temperature each and every month. A wave of coups has begun sweeping across much of the region, but whilst all of these coups have individual circumstances something must be permeating the region as a whole to make this possible? On...

With Washington and Beijing continuing to engage in a new competition for international influence, Europe stands in an odd place. Combined the EU is the largest GDP in the world, but from a military standpoint, the continent has become a patchwork of forces with wildly varied operability. To maintain its position as a world power should Europe double down on its continental experiment and form a u...

The world's soon to be newest nation is stepping out onto the world stage, complicating the geopolitics of its region. A fractured Papua New Guinea worries Bougainville may start a trend of breakaway states, The Solomon Islands worry about competing interests, China worries about others consolidating the Copper industry, and Australia is worried about betting on the wrong horse. How will the indep...

We are entering the next stage of the Syrian Civil War, a less bloody stage, but a far more impactful one. The major powers that ratcheted this war to where it is today are now looking to finalise the future for the country, will it be divided into zones of control, will the US look to negotiate a settlement, or will Assad regain control of his former nation?  There are few good options on the tab...

Suriname is a country so far off of most analysts radar that few have looked past its basic details and into its complicated geopolitical crossroads. The leader of the country is now faced with a decision to either change to seek the quick riches of the burgeoning oil industry, or to maintain a somewhat diversified economy and keep his growth and momentum grounded. This new leadership already sign...

Turkey spent much of the 20th-century building itself back up from the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, striving to once again become the major power at the world's crossroads. Turkey's influence now extends to the battlefields of North Africa, to the slopes of the Caucasus, to the supply chains of Europe, and into the frontlines of Syria. Although there is one more front Turkey is looking to gain...

Causing international chaos has never been cheaper or easier, with terrorist groups able to gather funding and recruits from across the world. The question is though, why can't we just cut off these groups from their funding? How are they able to use the banking systems to take donations, and the West seems unable to prevent it? We ask our expert panel how these groups are funded, and what can be...

Whilst the eyes of the world are fixated on Russia's border with Ukraine, Moscow is beginning to make major moves 7500km to the East on Russia's Pacific coast. The major powers have begun their pivot to Asia, and now Russia is scrambling to reassert itself into a struggle unfolding right in its own backyard. Will Russia be able to regain regional leadership, or will they take a back seat to an asc...

Bosnia is currently sliding back toward ethnic conflict and civil strife as Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik proposes major reforms that would help even further break down the countries fragile political ecosystem. Whilst the US and the EU turn their attention elsewhere in the world the Balkans are once again becoming a powderkeg set to explode on Europe's doorstep.  On the panel this week - Jame...

Sri Lanka has for decades experienced crisis after crisis, but throughout it all remained steadfastly neutral, always being able to play bigger players like India and China off of each other. But now with a worsening financial crisis and ethnic tensions flaring up again can Colombo afford to go it alone?  On the panel this week  - Asanga Abeyagoonasekera (APCSS) - Tharaka Balasuriya (Minister for...

With Russia becoming increasingly brazen on NATO's Eastern flank, the Baltic nations aren't looking as safe as they once were. Could we see another unofficial invasion of the Baltic states by Russia's little green men, and if so how would NATO respond? This week we sit down with our panel and talk through NATO's Baltic defence plan, and what needs to change to be able to guarantee the safety of NA...

War is becoming increasingly privatised, and the rules of the battlefield are shifting. Now we are reaching a point when companies are fighting companies, and the international justice system has no framework to deal with it. This week we take a look at just how out of control the situation has become by analysing Wagner's operations in Africa and on the sea.  On the panel this week.  - Sean Mcfat...

For decades Algeria has been tussling for the leadership position in North Africa with its Western neighbour Morocco, the fighting has stretched from Western Sahara, to the Sahel, and even to competing economies. Now the conflict is beginning to bubble up again, will it mean victory for Algeria, or internal collapse for Africas largest nation. We ask our expert panel.  On the panel this week. - Ja...

Vietnam is quickly become the new frontline in the South China Sea, with the nation standing in the direct path of an expansionist China. Will Vietnam be able to once again be the rock great empires crash upon, or will they be pulled into Beijing's gravitational orbit.  On the panel this week  Sebastian Strangio - The Diplomat Huong Le Thu - ASPI Gordon Flake - Perth USAsia Follow the show on @The...

Space has become the newest battlefield to undergo wide-ranging militarization, with everything from Nuclear Weapons to Kamikaze Satellites being deployed into orbit. What was once just a two-horse race between the US and the USSR has now burst right open, and the dominant position in space may be up for grabs; with serious geopolitical consequences here on Earth.  On the panel this week.  - Bledd...

Since 1994 Belarus has been ruled by Alexander Lukashenko, better known as Europe's last dictator. 2020 though brought a brand new wave of protests and Lukashenko's position in power has become somewhat shakey, and he is beginning to outlive his usefulness to the Kremlin. Will the Kremlin fight to keep him there, or place someone else on the throne? Is there a future for Belarus in the West?  On t...

Turkey and Greece have been battling each other for influence over the Eastern Mediterranean now for centuries, and nowhere is that struggle more evident than on the island of Cyprus. The island is currently divided into 3 parts, and for decades the conflict has remained stagnant, but will the conflict reignite with the discovery of a range of new gas fields off the coast?  On the panel this week...

South America's largest nation is currently in the middle of a tumultuous period, with war at home and a looming financial crisis on the horizon. What does the next decade hold in store for the heart of the continent, and will the military retake control of the country? We ask our expert panel.  - Christoph Harig (HSU Hamburg) - Victor Pougy (Intercept Brazil) - Christopher Sabatini (Chatham House...

With the attention of the world focused elsewhere, a conflict that threatens the stability of an entire continent has slipped under the radar. Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict has rapidly spiralled out of control, decimating their Armed Forces and sending the country toward the brink of collapse. With few options left, the now desperate Ethiopian Government is recalling their peacekeepers from dozens of...

Diamonds have been used to pay militias and rebel groups for decades due to their ease of transportation, global demand, and reliable value. After diamonds fuelled conflict across Africa, the Kimberley Process was created to stop the use of conflict diamonds, but its limitations have left key loopholes open. Exploiting these has allowed this trade to rampage through the African continent once agai...

Dubai's transformation from a fishing village to a global hub epitomises the unlikely country that is the United Arab Emirates. Massive oil wealth has enabled them to punch above their weight, but as the world marches away from oil, the pressure is building to secure their future while they still can. How will the UAE diversify? And what is its ambitious Red Sea strategy? We ask our expert panel:...