The Real Investment Show (Full Show)

Lance Roberts examines the cause and effect phenomenon of public policy and outcomes, rhetoric and promises; who'll control the House & Senate have more bearing on future legislation promised vs passed. Market breadth is expanding, which bodes well for bullish trends. Most of markets' lift is coming from stock buy back activity. Interesting observation about the category luanches of ETF's: Most ar...

Investors are waiting for this week's Jackson Hole confab, and will respond accordingly; when will markets take a breather? The DNC begins with economic nonsense. You cannot fix poverty by giving money away. Markets' rally straight up for eight days; pullback is coming: This is no time to chase stocks. Why the correction is over; three elements of economic uncertainty. Lance answers an email about...

Previews of the DNC Convention and Jackson Hole meeting previews, plus four Fed speakers on tap this week; Monkey Pox & Covid on the upswing ahead of election season. Markets stage a phenomenal recovery over the past five days; could interest rates reverse? Kamalanomics: A historical perspective on Economic Cycles: Why Prices Controls will exacerbate inflation; the myth of price gouging; the Tytle...

July CPI clocks-on on-target for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, as it indicate inflation is trending downward. This would set-up the Fed for up to four rate cuts by the end of the year, but not so great for stocks. Watch for seasonal adjustments to Retail Sales reports. Markets will challenge 50-DMA, and could end its correction today. Your personal experience with inflation is not the same as...

The PPI number came in weaker than expected with lower input prices. Today's CPI report (a 0.2% monthly increase = 3.2% annual rate) weakness could spur the Fed to lower rates, although to what extent remains unknown. The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Summit could also provide impetus for the Fed's action in September. Meanwhile, markets on Tuesday cleared the 100-DMA, and are looking for confirm...

It's economic report week, with previews of today's PPI, tomorrow's CPI, and Thursday's Retail sales numbers for July; will weaker consumer spending appear? Stock buybacks have returned. Markets to re-test 100-DMA, and set up to move up to the 20-DMA. Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the Jul...

Laying the groundwork for Fed rate cuts: Will they or won't they in September, and by how much? 80% of S&P companies have reported; stock buy back windows are back open for business; Q-2 earnings summary: Not great, not terrible. Is consumer spending slowing (and will earnings estimates fall)? Last week's market volatility: Still in the process of correction. Sell-off was recovered by Friday. Afte...

With the turmoil of the past week, now is a good time to reassess your portfolio, and rebalance the risk. What is the deal with stocks advertising on TV? Wealth transferrence & Inheritances: How common is it for children to meet with parent and financial advisor? If there's money left... How RMD's can calter inheritances; how gift-giving works. Lance's kids are 'off the payroll.' Are you planning...

Economic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance reverses. Earnings Season has delivered a mixed back; 92...

Is the crisis over? Too soon to tell, but the Nikkei did rebound, the Yen is coming down, and the BOJ is hold steady on rates. Earnings season continues; and it's too soon to suume the market has found the bottom. Admonition to be wary of the narratives. Market rally into the 100-DMA, buyt unlikely to test resistance the 50-DMA just yet. Understanding the Yen Carry Trade; risk management vs greed....

8-6-24 Is The Selling Over? by Lance Roberts

August begins with weaker employment and the Fed hinting at the possiblity of a 1/2% rate cut; The Japanese Carry Trade blos up: What is it and why does it matter? Look for the largest spike in volatility since the pandemic. Be careful amid emotional headlines; Markets have already been over sold and now need to bounce. Anything that is a risk assett will be affected; bonds are over bought: Today...

Richard and Danny discuss the week's market moves, and how bad news is actually bad news now; Intel's poor performance should be no surprise to astute investors; sometimes "value" stocks are value traps. Understanding (and avoiding) the day-to-day media hype. How to use "Money Buckets" to balance risks and demands on retirement funds; 2024 looks to be a mirror of 2023, with weaker economics. How t...

Jerome Powell's presser was a snooze-fest, with the Fed's stance on interest rates remaining unchanged (at least they didn't hint of more rate hikes!) Markets also responded to clarifications on chip bans and performance reports from AMB & MSFT. The "AI is Dead" narrative is way too early; largest growth in data center construction is in the US. Rewards for beating earnings estimates have been mil...

It's Fed Day, and Lance Roberts previews potential outcomes to be announced Thursday afternoon. Earnings season continues, with MSFT reporting revenue of only 29% for the quarter vs the anticipated 30% growth. Shucks. Our take on what to take from the NASDAQ correction: Opportunity. Markets are "flirting w disaster" around the 50-DMA: what will be the Black Swan Event (and why would anyone wish fo...

Earnings season continues with 39% of S&P reporting this week; by week's end, 79% of companies will have shared results...and the buy back window opens anew. The Fed meeting begins today, with a slim chance for a surprise rate cut; a more dovish tone will encourage markets, however, and anticipate rate cut by September. Commentary on markets' 3% correction & Japanese Yen carry trade effects. Addre...

Markets prepare to wrap July; what will the Fed do this week? McDonald's Quarterly Report showing consumer pullback. Article tease on trying MMT and the Sam Altman experiment. Market correction last week followed by rally bounce; sell-signals are still in place, indicating the correction isn't over. Commentary on Olympic Sacrilege and electric karma; will there be a deeper correction? Lance explai...

Rich & Danny recap Danny's recent accident; Rich's market summary includes a preview of today's PCE release. Markets are awaiting confirmation of a trend. Dealing with the election fallout on your money; markets have already priced-in everything you know. PCE will move markets today; there is still $500-billion in unspent government funds from the Inflation Reduction Act. Dealing with data breache...

The S&P Global Services Index is "great," in contradiction to other eocnomic metrics; the first estimate of Q2 GDP is released today (up 2.8%); this will be revised. Important to note the behavior of GDP prior to past recessions, which are always back-dated. 350-days without a 2% correction, until Wednesday. Bill Dudley is calling for lower interest rates now; Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz expl...

Lance Roberts provides a preview of Q2 GDP results, Temp hiring is tapering, and rising credit card delinquencies (because of unemployment) suggesting economic stress. A three year experiment in Universal Basic Income is an epic failure. Google earnings beat estimates, but YouTube's $1B revenue disappoints(!); Tesla puls back 7% on earnings results. Correction is near, but not today. Danny's accid...

Measures of inflation are beginning to come down: Shelter costs are expected to decline over the next six-months; jobless claims and consumer delinquencies are on the rise. Markets rally after a three-day correction, retesting the 20-DMA, and back up again, thanks to mega-caps. The current Sell-signal may limit upside. Is the bull market just getting started? Lance explains w charts & graphs. Unde...

Lance discusses the markets' potential reaction to Biden's exit from Presidential race, and whether markets' rotation out of mega-cap stocks is sustainable; a rewind to February market conditions compared to now: A correction is expected before the election. Commentary on keeping market corrections into context; the mega-cap rotation and fewer medium- and small-cap companies from which to choose:...

Richard Rosso opines on Houston driver, CrowdStrike IT fail, and why he's changed his tune in thinking now might be a good time for the Fed to slip in a rate cut. Does the Fed have performance anxiety? Take care in benchmarking risk; market pullbacks are like a "Thanksgiving Oven," keeping things warm to use later. Study shows Gen-X'ers more likely to delay retirement because of economic anxiety....

Hey, kids--what day is it? Lance reorients himself and shares foreigners' perspectives of the U.S. Advice: Avoid the negativity and don't feed the fear. Looking at astronomical rotation from Large- to Small-cap stocks over the past five days: Russell 2000 is elevated by 4.4 standard deviations from its moving average. Markets needed a healthy rotation, and this is actually bullish in creating more...

ay-3 of the RNC convention: Markets are already beginning to shift in anticipation of a presumed presidency and policies, with an eye on taxation and monetary policy. Donald Trump has said he will allow Jerome Powell to finish his term as Fed Chair, with Jamnie Dimon as Treasury Secretary. Meanwhile, we're watching major moves in the Russell 2000 with rotational trades in anticipation of election...