The Political Risk Podcast

Verisk Maplecroft’s new Strikes, Riots, and Civil Commotion (SRCC) model for the United States is the market’s first probabilistic SRCC catastrophe model. Since 2017, SRCC has led to $10bn of insured losses, compared to $1bn for terrorism. Civil unrest in the US recently hit the headlines in Los Angeles. In 2020, SRCC topped $3bn in industry-wide insured losses. A one in 100-year event, in Verisk...

The 90-day pause on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs is due to expire on 9 July. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are among the targets. When a blanket tariff rate of 10% expires, Thai goods will be targeted with a 36% tariff, Indonesian goods at 32%, for instance. Two senior diplomats feature in this ep. Sir Richard Gozney is a retired senior British diplomat, ex-gover...

For the latest episode, two guests feature from SCOR Business Solutions: Kayley Stewart is head of crisis management; and Babak Tavassolie is head analyst of political and credit risk. It’s a wide-ranging conversation, encompassing two geopolitically interrelated but separate specialty insurance lines of business that are at the very core of this pod – political risk and political violence. We dis...

The City of London Corporation hosted a Chief Risk Officers Summit at the Guildhall on 21 May, including a panel discussion: “Responding to challenges in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape”. Panellists included: Andrew McDougall, Head of Geopolitical Risk, Barclays; Savannah Thompson, Head of Political Risk & Underwriting Development, The Fidelis Partnership; Esperanza Cerdan, Chief Risk...

A special episode, in association with Liberty Specialty Markets, focused on European political violence (PV) risks. Politically motivated sabotage is a huge topic across Europe, amid heightened concerns about hybrid-war and grey-zone threats amid a potentially volatile political backdrop. Strikes Riots and Civil Commotion (SRCC) are  the  front-and-centre PV risk, particularly given recent civil...

As we hit the first 100 days mark of US President Donald Trump’s second term, no other single word sums up the preoccupation of business leaders around the world better than tariffs. This conversation assesses the impact of the US’s tariffs, particularly on Canada, Mexico and China, and asks how risk professionals and their organisations are responding to the fast-moving shifts in global trade. My...

Does Donald Trump have a master plan? The White House has sewn chaos in recent days, triggering stock market volatility with on-then-partially-off punitive tariffs globally, speaking softly with Russia, chastising Ukraine, talking openly about annexing neighbouring Greenland and Canada, and sparking an escalating trade war with China. Firas Modad, founder and principal of Modad Geopolitics, a cons...

Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, joins Mosaic’s global political risk leader Finn McGuirk, for the latest special episode in association with Mosaic Insurance. Colonel Zhou Bo is a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy, Tsinghua University, a distinguished fellow of the Global Governance Institution, and a regular PLA speaker...

Political violence and terrorism risks to renewable energy projects are the focus of the latest special episode in association with Gallagher Specialty. Two guests feature in this timely conversation: Harry Walker, director, structured credit and political risks at Gallagher Specialty; and Adam Carrier, head of consulting, at AnotherDay, a Gallagher company.

Hamish Greenwood is head of crisis management at McGill and Partners. In January the broker launched a new war risk reinsurance facility for commercial property in Ukraine. A good example of market innovation and collaboration, it uses FortuneGuard’s AI-powered tech, fuelled by three years of Ukrainian government air defence data, and partners local capacity from Ukrainian insurer ARX with several...

Verisk Maplecroft’s Political Risk Outlook draws on a unique portfolio of country risk data, alongside analysis from its team of experts, to strip back the complexity of some of the key global issues driving the risk environment for international business. This special episode features Jimena Blanco, Chief Analyst at Maplecroft, and Hugo Brennan, Maplecroft’s Research Director for Europe, the Midd...

Charles Hecker spent forty years travelling and working in the Soviet Union and Russia as a political risk consultant and journalist. He is the author of ‘Zero Sum: The Arc of International Business in Russia’. We discuss this acclaimed new book and draw lessons from the highs and lows of doing business in post-Soviet Russia, from communism to capitalism, and to the exodus of three years ago. Ther...

Srdjan Todorovic is head of political violence and hostile environment solutions at Allianz Commercial. In this episode we talk through the Allianz Risk Barometer 2025. Geopolitics is a recurring theme throughout the report, and our conversation focuses on three of its top ten ranked risks, including business interruption, cyber risk, and political risk and political violence. We discuss the hot t...

The insurance industry and the private sector are on the frontline of hybrid warfare, already a big news story in 2025. Elisabeth Braw is a journalist and author focused on responses to ‘Gray-zone’ aggression, including sabotage operations, cyber-attacks and damaging subsea cables. She is a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative, and a senior associate fellow a...

Southeast Asia is at the forefront of Asia Pacific geopolitics, with the US and China vying for influence. Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia recently became BRICS ‘partner countries’. The Philippines has tilted towards the US since Bongbong Marcos took office, and regularly clashes with China to defend its maritime borders. Meanwhile, several ASEAN countries are developing a biometric cros...

A special episode, in association with Mosaic, focused on the integrity of borders amid a volatile new ‘age of secession’. Mark Wheeler is co-CEO and co-founder of next-gen specialty insurer Mosaic Insurance. Dr Timothy Less is a senior advisor for geopolitics at Cambridge University’s Centre for Risk Studies, and previously worked in the British Diplomatic Service. The thawing out of frozen confl...

Infrastructure is on the frontline of so-called ‘grey zone’ tactics used by government-sponsored actors, including cyber-attacks that can be aimed at disruption, theft and corporate espionage, meaning businesses should be vigilant and resilient against the threats. Which is where AnotherDay comes in, as a Gallagher company and specialist crisis and risk management consultancy. Sneha Nichols‑Dawda...

Marvin Barth is creator of Thematic Markets, providing independent research and analytics on the global political economy. An economics PhD, he has worked as an economist, strategist and portfolio manager at big banks and asset managers, and across the policy spectrum, including the Federal Reserve, US Treasury and the Bank for International Settlements. Our conversation focuses on the political a...

Dan Callow is lead underwriter for political violence, terrorism and war lines of business at specialty insurer and reinsurer IQUW. The political violence market can be characterised as competitive. Pricing is soft and driven by a growing number of insurance companies collectively offering a large volume of direct and facultative capacity. The underlying risks are best described as volatile, with...

A special episode, in association with Mosaic Insurance, focused on the political violence outlook for the US Presidential Election set for November 5 2024. Tina Fordham is a geopolitical strategist and advisor, and founder of Fordham Global Foresight. Adam McGrath is the global head of war, terrorism and political violence at Mosaic.

Savannah Thompson is The Fidelis Partnership’s head of political risk and underwriting development. She’s also a great example of young female talent and career progression in the London market. In this episode we talk about: tips for industry joiners and her remarkable career so far; The Fidelis Partnership's new Syndicate 3123 at Lloyd’s; and the role of political risk in sustainability projects...

Sub-Saharan Africa’s mining industry is highly exposed to political risk and particularly expropriatory acts by host governments. In this special episode, in association with Gallagher Specialty, Rupert Morgan, Executive Director, Structured Credit and Political Risks, Arthur J. Gallagher International, focuses on five countries: Burkina Faso; Mali; Ghana; Democratic Republic of Congo and Tanzania...

The CrowdStrike outage is the latest cyber event to leave underwriters fearing unforeseen catastrophe scenarios and questioning cyber risk aggregations. But could the dramatic headlines and re/insurance buzz about cyber cat be a whole lot of hyperbole? Tom Johansmeyer, global head of index classes, Price Forbes Re, and a POLIR PhD candidate at the University of Kent, Canterbury, certainly thinks s...

WTW’s Political Risk Index analyses patterns in the world’s most vulnerable countries. Its latest report charts the decline of the rules-based international order, with all that that entails for peace, democracy, free trade and cross-border investment. Sam Wilkin, WTW’s director of political risk analytics, oversees the index, as well as a political risk survey, and a predictive model, to project...

Carbon is tipped to become ‘the next cyber’ for insurance, a future trillion dollar market, as organisations launch net zero projects to curb climate change and trade carbon credits. Most carbon investment comes from the West, but most carbon projects happen in the Global South. This episode features James Kench, head of insurance at Kita, a Lloyd's MGA that insures carbon, and is launching a new...