The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

* The stock market continues to ride the Trump wave to new highs, in fact the Russell 2000 hit an all-time record high today * The enthusiasm for stocks not being dampened by the carnage in the bond market * We now have the yield on the 10-year treasury up at around almost 2.3 * And the yield on the 30-year now, just below 3% - 2.99 * Yields are still low, but nowhere near as low as they were * An...

* What a difference a day makes * Between Tuesday evening, when the markets first began to realize that Donald Trump was going to win the election and the predictions of collapsing stocks and soaring gold prices appear to be taking hold * Because at one point the Dow was down about 800 points and gold was up about $60 * All of a sudden, the sentiment started to shift and by the time the U.S. marke...

* It is Wednesday, November 9, 2016, one day following one of the biggest political upsets in U.S. political history * As Donald Trump shocked everybody by defeating Hillary Clinton * Hillary Clinton was supposedly the most qualified person ever to seek the U.S. Presidency, and Donald Trump had no experience whatsoever * And the establishment had already sworn in Hillary Clinton; it was pretty muc...

* It's not going to be a new record as far as the consecutive days of declines for the U.S stock market * The 9-day losing streak ended today in a huge pre-relief Clinton victory rally * The markets had been factoring in a higher probability of a Donald Trump victory ever since the FBI announced that they were re-opening the email investigation * Thanks to a treasure trove of 650,000 emails on Ant...

* Today U.S. stocks extended their losing streak to 9 consecutive days * We haven't had a losing streak this long since 1980 - that was 36 years ago * 8 consecutive down days last took place in the financial crisis year of 2008, so we had tied that yesterday * Now we one-bettered it and we're back to the longest streak since 1980 * The record for consecutive down days is 12 * The last time that ha...

* Today the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December rose about 10 points * We're now at about an 80% probability, at least the way the markets assess the odds * That the Fed will raise rates in December after failing to raise rates today * If you remember, after they didn't raise rates last time there was some probability of a November rate hike * But by this morning, the probability of Novembe...

* Yesterday we finally got the release of the initial estimate for Q4 GDP * The Atlanta Fed had originally come out with an estimate of about 3.8 and had steadily reduced their estimate * They got down as low as 1.9 before ratcheting it up a couple of times and their estimate was at 2.1 when we got the official release * And the number came out at 2.9; not only much higher than Atlanta Fed's estim...

* The odds of a  December rate hike continue to ratchet up above 70% * We had a parade of Fed officials, most recently again today coming out and talking about why a December rate hike is a good idea, probable, possible, appropriate * You name the adjective, some Federal Reserve president, governor is discussing it * The markets are ratcheting up their expecations * The dollar index continues to m...

* The official probability of a December rate hike continues to diminish over the last several days * The markets had the rate hike at about a 70% probability; now we're down to about 60% * Personally, I think the odds are closer to zero, and over time, as we get closer and closer to that December meeting, the odds will steadily move down * Just like the Atlanta Fed keeps moving down its estimates...

* It's another week where the dollar remained relatively firmly bid; the dollar index closing just above 98 * Gold prices seem to have a lid on them; they closed down today about $7 * Gold's not really going down, but it's not really going up, either * What are going up are bond yields, long-term bond yields are rising today to about a 4-month high * 30-year Treasury yield to about 2.5% * The 10-y...

* The most highly anticipated presidential debate in history is over and to me, the anticipation was more like a highly-promoted professional boxing match * Right away, as soon as the debate was over, CNN comes out with its poll, showing Clinton badly beating Donald Trump * And I thought that, if this were like a prize fight, the ref's would have stopped the fight in the first 20 minutes * That's...

* This morning the government released the most important, the most highly-anticipated economic release of the month * At least that's what everybody who trades in just about any market believes * And that is the Non-Farm Payroll Report; the official scorecard on job creation and unemployment * This time it was for the month of September, the final month of Q3 * We're still waiting for the GDP est...

* This is my 200th  podcast and I looked back to the date of the first one and it was just over 2 years ago, September 2014 * I began this podcast shortly after I ended the Peter Schiff Radio Show * I hope everybody is enjoying these podcasts and if you like what you're listening to, help turn on other people to the same information * Statements early this morning by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey...

* It looks like the U.S. stock market is going to close out the 3rd quarter on a positive note * The catalyst for the rally today is the big rally in Deutsche Bank; shares are up better than 14% * They were in danger of going below $10 yesterday * There were nervous about maintaining accounts with Deutsche Bank * People were re-living memories of Lehman Brothers all over again * I think the Obama...

* I'm going to use today's podcast to offer my take on last night's Presidential Debates * Which certainly did not live up to all of the hype and expectation * But the airwaves today are filled with opinion makers proclaiming that Trump won or Hillary won * And of course, all of the people who think Trump won, these are the Trump supporters, Republicans - their guy won * And Hillary supporters are...

* Aliens didn't invade the Earth, and the Federal Reserve didn't raise interest rates * If you remember, I was pegging the probability of each at roughly the same * True to form, the Federal Reserve did pretty much exactly what I thought they were going to do and not raise interest rates * Now I thought they might have tried to lower expectations for the probability in the markets of a December ra...

* This morning the Federal Open Market Committee began its 2-day meeting, where they're supposedly going to discuss raising interest rates for the second time * We're going to get the official announcement of their decision on Wednesday * Most likely there will be no surprise, that they won't raise interest rates * But it will be the statement at the press conference that follows; that's typically...

* We got a lot of economic data released today, most of it bad, and most of it worse than expected * What I did not expect was that the market shrugged it off * Initially, there was a little reaction; gold jumped $3 but it never gained momentum and it rolled over to -$10 at the time of this recording * The dollar index, which had moved into negative territory immediately following the release, qui...

* Today was a day of damage control for the Federal Reserve * It almost seems like whenever they discuss the possibility of a rate hike, they're really launching a trial balloon * They want to gauge the possibility of a rate hike and then if the market kind of shrugs it off, or blesses the rate hike the way it did last year nearing December, if the market seems it's OK with a rate hike, then maybe...

* We had widespread selling in the markets today; it was real carnage across the board * Everything went down except the U.S. dollar * The Dow Jones was down 394  points - about 2% * That wasn't bad compared to what happened in other indices and other sectors * In fact, when it comes to the Dow Jones averages, the utilities were the weakest, they were down 3.7% * The NASDAQ was down 2-1/2%; the co...

* Last week on Thursday we got that much weaker than expected ISM Manufacturing number, which didn't get a lot of attention because it came out a day before the jobs number which cast a pretty big shadow on all the economic data * The number came in very weak, as I pointed out, it was 49.4, which is contraction mode * Anything below 50 in the ISM numbers indicates a contraction and a recession * B...

*  On Friday we got the Non-Farm Payroll report and, of course, this jobs report is the most important ever * Because it was going to determine whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its September meeting * Of course, I didn't think the Fed would raise interest rates in September regardless of what this jobs number was * It's just that so many people were convinced that it was g...

*  On Friday we got the Non-Farm Payroll report and, of course, this jobs report is the most important ever * Because it was going to determine whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its September meeting * Of course, I didn't think the Fed would raise interest rates in September regardless of what this jobs number was * It's just that so many people were convinced that it was g...

* The price of gold continues to retreat * Gold was down about $12 today; it closed around $1310 * The dollar index up again as more and more people begin to contemplate the possibility of a rate hike in either September or December * Or maybe even both, because the odds of a rate hike, either in September or December have now increased to about even money * If you go back to June, the odds were p...

* Earlier today Janet Yellen delivered her much-anticipated and way over-hyped speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium * It wasn't as irrelevant as I thought it was going to be, but the actual relevant part of the speech was lost on just about everybody * Instead they keep focusing on whether or not the Fed is going to raise rates by another .25 in September or December or maybe both * In real...