The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Summary: Amazon Buys Whole Foods The Dow was up today; mainly on the surprise announcement that Amazon, the king of on-line retailing, is buying Whole Foods.  In a labor market significantly altered by ObamaCare-style government intervention, this news could signal further changes to the labor market.  Retail has experienced a steady decline, and this move could usher in a new wave of Amazon Go-st...

Summary Quantitative Tightening Ahead: The Federal Reserve came out with a surprisingly hawkish rate hike today, announcing plans to  shrink the balance sheet by $50 billion per month.  This would mean an annualized rate of $600 billion per year in new treasuries to hit the market. This does not take into consideration existing budget deficits or future spending. The Fed's policy reversal, in the...

Summary: In Puerto Rico's  recently held non-binding referendum on statehood, just 23% of the eligible voters who actually voted overwhelmingly chose statehood.  This would mean that Puerto Rico would keep its current debt and take on the $20 trillion U.S. national debt. This would offer the moral hazard of offering Puerto Ricans additional welfare benefits. The last thing Puerto Ricans need is to...

Summary: Friday's Tech Wreck continued today, some stocks making key technical reversals. The crypto currencies, also experienced volatility as Bitcoin seems to be losing some of its market share to other competing crypto currencies, but volatility remains a key component of the market. Volatility may be exacerbated by Wednesday's anticipated Federal Reserve rate hike. * Friday's Tech Wreck contin...

Summary:  As an unexpected pro-labor vote in the U.K. weakened the pound and strengthened the dollar, the market reacted more to political news, abroad and at home.  The uncertain results of Comey's testimony dampened concerns about the Trump Presidency. Prior to Comey's testimony someone sold a huge amount of gold, causing gold to drop, although it finally closed only down about $7, with another...

Summary: Gold and gold stocks are moving to new highs as the dollar index continues its slide. Although some connect this move to market jitters over the outcome of the upcoming James Comey testimony, economic factors are a more likely the force behind the move.  Moves in gold stocks have been telegraphing gold prices more often than not, and gold stocks have a plenty of room to move to even reach...

Summary:  Today's big miss in the Nonfarm Payroll report indicates further proof for the Fed that the Q1 weak economic data was not transitory.  Coupled with disappointing Labor Force Participation declines and increasing Trade Deficit numbers, the Fed will have no good news to justify a rate hike. All this news does not bode well for the U.S. dollar index, which closed at a new low for the year t...

Summary: Box office revenues for this holiday weekend were the weakest since 1999.  Why is that? Some say the movies were not very good, but I think it's more likely that this is just another piece of evidence that supports the fact that the consumer is in much worse shape than is generally perceived. * Hopefully everybody had a happy Memorial Day weekend; I spent my holiday weekend up in Vancouve...

Summary: The Fed is now indicating it needs evidence that  the Q1 weak economic data is transitory and not a trend.  This is interesting for 2 reasons.  The Fed's narrative has always been to tout economic growth even in the face of flimsy or no supporting data.  Now the Fed is actually admitting there is weakness.  The other interesting thing is that, although the Fed continues to claim it is "da...

Summary:  The dollar's decline really started with the Fed's too-little-too late rate hikes.  The rally of 2014 - 2015 was fueled by expectations of more aggressive Fed monetary policy that did not materialize. We've been trending sideways since then with the exception of an upward spike after the Trump victory.  Now, as much of the hype surrounding Trump's election is losing its momentum, support...

Summary: Republicans face chaos around Trump's political difficulties, causing some to consider potential advantages of a President Pence.  Market volatility has not yet brought the DJIA below pre-Trump numbers while the dollar index slides and gold moves up. Meanwhile, household debt is higher than 2008 levels even as fewer Americans own homes. * It looks like I picked a very volatile week to go...

Summary: The retail sector is in worse shape today than it was in 2008 during and immediately following the financial crisis. Retailing has been responsible for 10% of the jobs gained during this so-called recovery. Clearly part of the problem is the increase in minimum wage.  Why are retailers adding so many jobs when their business is declining? * A quick little announcement at the beginning of...

Summary: Trump fantasy persists in the face of weakening economic data, health care and tax reform uncertainty. The reality is that the damage done to the economy will not right itself just because Trump has been elected and we are in for a wild ride whether or not President Trump decides to do the right thing for the American economy. * It didn't take long for the Atlanta Fed to already reduce it...

SchiffReport recorded Saturday, May 6 * On Wednesday of this week, the Federal Reserve against a rate hike in May * But based on their official statement, the market assigned a much higher probability * To a rate hike coming in June * In fact, following Friday's slightly better-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report, the probability of a June rate hike is not near 100% * In other words, the markets...

Summary:  Last quarter the Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDP  forecast was 3.4% in February. The most recent number was actually .7%.  After all the negative economic data that came out today suggesting that Q1 could be revised lower, the Atlanta Fed came out with their forecast for Q2 GDP at 4.3%.  How is this possible, with no economic data to support this projection? Either they believe their policies are s...

Summary: The Europeans released their inflation numbers today.  Year over year, inflation in the Eurozone are increasing at an average of 1.9%, which is Mario Draghi's objective.  This is a 4-year high in CPI increase.  How does Draghi justify more stimulus? In the U.S. growth is lower than forecast, while inflation is higher than forecast. That trend should be disturbing and it will continue. * T...

Summary: President Trump actually delivered on his promise of the largest tax cut in American history, and he delivered it on time.  Trump may have presented a plan with built-in bargaining positions, or he might even intend to pass a tax bill that will "starve the beast". The interesting thing is that the President is applying this 15% tax rate to pass-through entities, such as LLC's, which will...

Summary: Government spending creates the greatest drag on the U.S. economy.  Cutting taxes, even the "biggest tax cut ever" cannot stimulate the economy alone.  So if you're fed up with paying taxes, if you think you are over-taxed,  and you are, it's because the government is spending too much money. The only real way to get relief is to dramatically cut government spending.  No one want's to do...

Summary: Goldman Sachs is no longer recommending a long trade on the dollar. The dollar was previously regarded as a conviction trade, first over speculation over Fed rate hikes and then over Trump exuberance with the expectation of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and other moves that would continue to inflate the dollar bubble.  The dollar was the most crowded trade out there.  I believe, howev...

Summary: Donald Trump's promises on healthcare and smaller government appear to be fading behind news of increased military spending, infrastructure spending and compromises on health care and tax reform.  This scenario looks far more like Jimmy Carter than Ronald Regan. We continue to get bad economic data, telegraphing that the air is already leaking out of the economic bubbles created over the...

Summary:  President Trump's campaign promises are falling by the wayside one by one.  First the backfire on the replacement for Obamacare, and then, just as talk of tax reform heats up, the administration seems to be gazing toward the Democrats for a bi-partisan solution to tax reform.  No good can come from bi-partisanship.  When the Republicans and the Democrats are working together, that's when...

Summary: President Trump needs to lead, not oppose.  He is opposing the very forces who put him in office.  By aligning with the mainstream Republican Party, he vacates the opportunity to lead the economy successfully through the inevitable consequences of the Obama Administration's failed economic policies. Investors are jumping on the bandwagon of hype surrounding the Trump Presidency.  Abandoni...

* On Monday the market got its first opportunity to react to President Trump and the Republican Congress' failure to repeal and replace Obamacare * With something more palatable * And as a result, the market declined * At the lows, the Dow was down approximately 200 points * Although the "Buy the Dippers" came out, and by the end of the day, the Dow was UP about 150 points * But it was the 8th con...

*  Earlier I talked about the Trump honeymoon, and  my belief that it wouldn't last long, in fact I thought it might have ended before the marriage began with the inauguration * It did carry on a bit after that, but it seems to me that the honeymoon is ending now * Today, the attempt to repeal and replace ObamaCare went down in flames * That's something I had predicted a while ago; I said that I d...

* U.S. stocks ended the week with marginal gains * In fact, the Dow Jones was up only about 12 points on the week * The real action happened overseas * Foreign markets were strong, particularly emerging markets * They continue to smoke the performance of the U.S. stock market, confounding the experts * The experts thought making America Great Again would be great for U.S. stocks, but it would be a...