The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Economy Slowing Down We got quite a bit of economic data that was released today, pretty much all of it confirming what everybody seems to be denying, and that is that the U.S. economy is, in fact, slowing down, at least the way we like to measure it.  We will get more data later in the week, of course we get the big number, the nonfarm payroll number, on Friday. We always get that number the firs...

Biggest Move in Crude Oil Not much action today in the stock markets on this Friday before a 3-day Memorial Day holiday weekend.  The action was really in the oil markets, the bond markets and the foreign exchange markets. The biggest move happening in crude oil.  Crude was down just over $3/barrel today; one of the biggest declines I've seen in some time.  We're back down to $67.50. Earlier in th...

Markets Rallied on Fed Minutes Interpreted as Dovish Earlier today we got the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes and before the minutes came out (they come out at 2pm Eastern Time). Prior to the release, all the stock markets were down; the Dow was down maybe about 150 points or so, and when the minutes came out, we got a rally, and the Dow closed up about 50 points.  So,...

Solid Gains Today in the Major Stock Market Averages We had solid gains today in the major stock market averages; the DJIA putting in the largest percentage gain, just over 1.2% or 298 points.  I think at the highs, the Dow was up 370 and change, so a strong day, S&P, NASDAQ also up not quite as much calculated as percentages. The Russell 2000 was not up as much as the other averages but it is...

Las Vegas to Vancouver to Las Vegas I'm recording today's podcast from my hotel room in Vancouver, Canada.  I'm up here for a couple of days at the  2018 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference  and actually I left Las Vegas to come here; I am at the Las Vegas Money Show , I was there yesterday and I will be back again tomorrow for another talk, and on Thursday I am flying to Puerto Rico for anot...

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Fed is Willing to Tolerate Higher Inflation Today is the first Friday in May and that means we got the April Jobs Report released today, and before I actually get into the details of the jobs report, I want to talk about what happened with the Fed this week. I think that is the most significant news of the week.  The Fed's statement on Wednesday and the comments from today are the real reasons we...

Market Tends to Produce Better Returns in the First 4 Months of the Year There is an old Wall Street adage: "Sell in May and Go Away". The reason for that saying is that seasonally, the market tends to produce better returns in the first 4 months of the year, January through April, and then, historically, beginning in May and throughout the summer, the market can generally go down, and I think the...

Markets Down But Not by as Much as Expected All the major U.S. stock markets were down on the week, but not by as much as I thought. We got that big drop on Monday, where we got the very bad reaction to even better than expected earnings.  Plus, with interest rates rising, I thought we would have had more selling, but we didn't we actually rallied back most of the week from the big Monday decline,...

The Correction is Over and the Bear Market is Resuming As I have been speaking about in my last couple of podcasts, it looks like the period of relative calm in the markets is over and the next leg down has begun.  So the correction is also over - not the downward move - that is not the correction - this is the bear market.  The upward move was the correction. It was the first correction in this y...

Another Friday Down Day It looks like the period of calm may be coming to an end and the storm may be looming just over the horizon. The Dow Jones finished down today, just over 200 points off the day's low.  I think I saw us down about 280.  This was the 4th consecutive Friday where the markets were lower - there was a holiday in there (Good Friday) - it has been 5 Fridays.  This seems to be a tr...

Podcast Break: Investor Summit at Sea I apologize to everybody who has been waiting patiently for my next podcast.  Las week I went the entire week without doing a podcast, which is unusual. If you are a regular listener to this podcast you'll know that I was on a cruise ship all last week; I was on the Real Estate Guys' cruise.  The internet connections on a ship are very slow; particularly the u...

Wednesday Reversal Day On my Wednesday podcast, I talked about Wednesday reversal day, where we gapped way down and then rallied and closed up.  It was a strong outside reversal day. I thought this could be the beginning of a correction.  The correction meaning a rise in a bear market.  Everybody thinks we're in a correction now of a bull market, but I think the bull market is over and a rise is t...

Extreme Volatility It was another extremely volatile day in the U.S. stock market. When I finished my podcast on Monday and we had that big drop, I suspected that Tuesday might be a reversal Tuesday.  So I thought we'd get a bounce on Tuesday and, in fact we did.  We had a big rally; the Dow was up 400 points or so. Then this morning the Dow opened up down 500 points.  In fact when I woke up this...

Really a Head Fake As I suspected and as I stated in my last podcast at the end of the first quarter, I speculated that the rally that closed out the quarter was really a head fake. When the quarter started, I said you would see a resumption of the downtrend of the evolving bear market, which I believe we are already in. Bear Market Even though technically we're not there yet because we're not dow...

Holiday Rally Major U.S. stock markets managed to finish a holiday-shortened week with strong rallies.  The Dow Jones was up 254 points on the day; earlier in the day it was up better than 400, so the last hour did see the U.S. markets giving up part of their gains.  The NASDAQ up 114 points, S&P up 35.87 points, so these rallies today were enough to put the market in the black for the week. B...

Incredible Stock Market Volatility We're having more incredible stock market volatility and I've spoken about the pickup in volatility as another sign that things are different; that we've had a change.  Increased volatility usually happens at inflection points, especially when we had a record period of minimum volatility.  A of a sudden, we're having incredible swings in the stock market.  Case i...

The Rally that Failed On my last podcast, which I recorded on Wednesday, I pointed out that the market's failure to hold the rally in the aftermath of the rate hike. In the face of all of the bullish statements made by Powell about how great everything was, and how strong the economy was, we had a near 300 point rally that failed. All Systems Go for a Market Decline The Dow surrendered the entire...

Fed Surprised No OneToday, the Federal Reserve surprised nobody. They raised interest rates by 25 basis points; the 6th rate hike since the Fed began, in December of 2015.  The rate is now between 1.5% and 1.75%, so the midpoint of that is around 1.635. So we're still significantly below 2%, but I guess we're closer to 2% than 1% and obviously, we're a lot higher than zero which is where rates sto...

Tomorrow is the first of the Fed's 2-day Federal Open Market Committee Meeting, and it's going to be the first meeting where there is supposed to be a rate hike and a press conference for the new chairman, Jerome Powell.  The markets are pretty much at 100% probability that the Fed is going to raise rates on Wednesday.  What the markets are grappling with is whether or not the Fed will raise rates...

Retail Sales Down Three Months in a Row I've got so much to talk about today, it's hard to even figure out where to begin.  So I'll start with some of the economic data that came out today, in particular, the February Retail Sales number. Remember last month we had a bad number, -.3, the second month in a row we had a decline in retail sales.  The expectation was for a big rebound in February, +.4...

NASDAQ New High The stock market had one of its best days of the year; I think it was the second best day.  The Dow was up 440 points - just under 1.8%.  The NASDAQ was up 132 points; about the exact same percentage as the Dow.  The NASDAQ is now at an all-time record high! It closed at 7,60.81. That is a new record. We have taken out the high from before the 10% correction.  The NASDAQ is the onl...

Continued Stock Market Volatility The U.S. stock market continues to be extremely volatile, and as I have said many times on this podcast, I think this volatility following a long-term record lack of volatility is a good sign that the uptrend has changed.  So there's a good chance that the bull market is now a bear market, although few people seem to realize that.  We're still relatively close to...

Trade, Comparative Advantage and Protectionism I want to devote this entire podcast on the subject of trade and comparative advantage and protectionism, and this trade war that President Trump is so confident about.  He wants to declare war because he thinks we are going to win.  He's a winner, and he wants America to win and so he wants to launch a trade war so that America can win. The Trade Def...

Second Consecutive 300-Point Drop in the Dow The Dow Jones was down 380 points today, in fact this is the second consecutive 300-point drop we've had in the Dow. The Dow is now down about 4% for the month of February which just ended today.  This also means the Dow's record-breaking monthly winning streak has also come to an end.  Remember, the Dow was up every month since Donald Trump was elected...