The Other Hand

Some personal reflections on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11. And some stuff on the budget and interest rates This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Economist has a big piece this week on ‘the rise of the illiberal left’. That newspaper is as worried about the extreme left as it is about the totalitarian right. So are we. One aspect of political extremism is lying. Chris’s written piece on this is questioned by Jim - not uncritically! Economic forecasting is an exercise in futility. Most of the time. This is a public episode. If you would...

Lots of economic data over past few days, all pointing to very robust growth as the economy reopens. Plenty of questions remain over the sustainability of that growth. Almost all countries are in the same post-pandemic (we hope!) boat: a big surge in growth but supply constraints and a changed labour market raise plenty of questions. Another shiny new housing plan but how robust are its foundation...

So much shallow thinking is applied to so many of our problems. Not least housing. But also low pay and inequality. The Fed gets all this, even if many do not Why does Dublin stink? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Hong Kong stock market is off 20% from its high earlier this year. That’s the conventional definition of a bear market. Is this the start of something big - the long-awaited global market correction - or is it just down to China’s attempts to cut it giant corporations down to size? What is China actually up to? It’s not easy to question the environmental consensus. Those that do so are vilifie...

Anger is not a strategy. You won’t get lower house prices or lower rents by shouting at the people who bring you the facts. You certainly won’t get more houses if you vote for politicians who magnify and exploit your anger. Following the Great Financial Crisis there was the age of austerity. The Covid crisis is shaping up to be the exact opposite. The tragedy unfolding in Afghanistan was surely av...

Jim takes us through the latest economic news Why has the environment become so political? Surely it’s just a big problem that needs a solution without left and right taking swings at each other? Ireland is, at last, a big vaccination success. Is this because there are fewer anti-vax nutcases? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus...

What does economic normality look like? We suggest that nothing will be normal until interest rates rise. Zero interest rates are connected to lots of things: income and wealth inequality, ever higher house prices. But have we turned Japanese? And has Australia quietly moved on from zero covid? recognising that it is a ‘forever strategy’? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this...

Jim has been travelling but thinks he might need to keep it quiet. China has taken a sledge hammer to its education and tech sectors. Why? Latest IMF economic forecasts on a watershed day for the Irish Economy. Some Covid arithmetic explaining why vaccinated people turning up in hospital is not as worrying as first appears. And young people looking for their pitchforks. This is a public episode. I...

Latest inflation news on both sides of the Atlantic has been grim. The debate goes on: is the surge in prices temporary? Lots of data on the Irish economy and a changed future fiscal stance: more spending for longer. The state of our politics: the usual suspects call this austerity. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes,...

Anyone heading off after July 19th should steel themselves for sticker shock, not least for car rental prices. Inflation continues its global creep. Boris Johnson look a worried man - for very good reason. The numbers don’t support what he is doing - or at least reveal a massive gamble. Just as England’s social problems reveal a very troubled country. This is a public episode. If you would like to...

Boris Johnson has always been a gambler. His biggest yet is the decision to lift all Covid restrictions on July 19th. Latest eurozone economic data suggest the long awaited lift-off. Are all newspaper articles still written by real people? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Ac...

The UK government believes the time has come to live with Covid. NPHET does not. We look at the evidence and what each government believes. In particular, we shine a laser beam on the trade off between health and the economy. Either there is one or there is not. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.su...

Surely governments have a wider remit than do medics and scientists? What is the bigger picture? What is the future for the younger generation? Who is looking after their interests? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomics.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On the 5th anniversary of the Brexit referendum, Chris Grey publishes Brexit Unfolded, his magisterial account of what has happened since that fateful day. The book explores the debate as it unfolded and the evolution of Brexit’s vague definition into the hardest of outcomes. In conversation with Chris Johns, Professor Grey reveals he almost used ‘ lies can never become policy ’ as the book’s subt...

Markets decided weeks ago that the inflation scare is temporary. Now they are doubling down with a bet that the ‘relation trade’ is over: that means big reversals in bonds, commodities and much else besides. Signal or noise? There is far too much muddled thinking on antigen testing. It’s a useful addition to the toolkit. Why NPHET is so opposed is a mystery A UK by election reveals that southerner...

Johnson once again fluffed his lines when he had to speak them live. He’s all bluster, zero beliefs and much worse than a mere mini-Trump. 90+% of covid in the UK is of the India/Delta variety. Does scientific advice make sense? Do the current lockdown restrictions? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjpeconomic...

The G7 has a long and mixed history. It used to be about exchange rates. Today it is mostly taxes but there have been important environmental initiatives of late. Staff shortages in surprising places: out and about in London and Dublin UK and EU fall out over sausages. Johnson’s next capitulation is in sight, if the past is anything to go by. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss...

A raft of economic data this week suggests economies on both sides of the Atlantic have taken off like a rocket. But, in the US at least, workers are notable by their absence. The UK looks to be trouble with the Delta variant. How bad could it get and does it threaten the recovery? Property taxes are in the frame. Politicians who should (and probably do) know better say they are in favour of wealt...

Comments from civil servants about Dublin’s Street life raise all sorts of questions. Only some of which are about Covid: the ghosts of authoritarian priests are seen walking the Capital’s streets. We all need to be mindful of our inner traffic warden. There could be an authoritarian also lurking in there somewhere. The OECD is getting a lot more optimistic about post-Covid recovery. Joe Biden is...

Ireland announces the reopening plan. But the Common Travel Area is still not common: Britain has kept it operating through the pandemic, Ireland has not. US inflation surprises on the upside again; as does the cost of your breakfast. Talks about talks about interest rates going up might be about to begin. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get ac...

The future of housing and house prices. Can and should the public sector get much more involved? The competition between economic metaphors: the tomato ketchup economy? If you like this podcast please sign up and/or share with your friends. Get involved in the discussion! Many thanks. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes...

Reaction to our last podcast has been massive and it remains the non-covid issue for Irish politics. It will become the biggest issue once the pandemic is over. Why can’t the government see that they are gifting the next election to you-know-who? The near half-century of neo-liberalism looks like it is coming to an end. We discuss Professor Dani Rodrik’s wise words on what has happened and what is...

A look at what drives house prices. Populists will grab the headlines - and maybe the votes - but they have no solutions, only strategies to make things worse. House prices going up are a global phenomenon, one thats been around for a long time. The role of interest rates is under appreciated. If you like this podcast please join the discussion, tell your friends and/or sign up - we write on this...

England turns blue. The end of the Union looms into sight? US jobs disappoint and, once again, reveals the pointlessness of economic forecasting. Jim turns the podcast blue with his revelations about sex toys. The US jobs report may have lessons for Ireland, the UK and elsewhere: ending pandemic unemployment assistance will be tricky. Supply shortages get worse and commodity prices boom. If you li...