The Noble Update Podcast

$315 BILLION in stablecoins are now backed by US Treasuries. And I don't understand why no one's questioning this. Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch: Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create demand for Treasuries, make it easier for people outside the United States to hold dollars. Sounds great. Until you look at...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Shift to a more conservative portfolio posture: Reduce exposure to risk assets, particularly high-valuation tech, as the market is likely in the early stages of repricing for a slower-growth, higher-inflation reality. [00:02:30] * Rotate capital into hard assets and domestic infrastructure: Focus on U.S. energy producers, petrochemical companies benefiting from...

And that not to protect your retirement. But to fast-track trillion-dollar money-losing AI companies into your portfolio. Let me explain what's about to happen. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public THIS YEAR. Combined expected market cap: roughly $3 TRILLION. SpaceX is targeting a June IPO at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation. It merged with xAI in February and plans to raise...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Execute a Rotation into Energy and Defensive Staples : Capital should be moved out of early-cycle technology and financial sectors into late-cycle assets, specifically integrated energy, resources, and consumer staples. [00:10:25] * Monitor the Liquidity Cycle for a 2027 Bottom : Portfolio strategy should be framed around a structural decline in global liquidit...

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1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Reduce exposure to technology and AI-related names: Exit or pare down positions in the “Magnificent 7” and software names, as they show deteriorating technical patterns and are considered overvalued. [12:36 - 13:19] * Dollar-cost average into an S&P 500 index fund for a core holding: For a foundational, low-maintenance portion of a portfolio, systematically buy...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Prepare for Sustained Geopolitical Risk Premium: Assume the Iran conflict will not be resolved quickly. The targeting of Kharg Island directly threatens 90% of Iran’s oil exports, creating a floor under oil prices and a persistent source of volatility. [ 01:14 - 02:02 ] * Rotate Capital Away from AI Hype and into Real Assets: The market is now punishing compani...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Rotate Capital into Gold Miners for Asymmetric Risk/Reward: Based on the analysis of record profitability, low valuation multiples, and operational leverage, initiate or increase positions in gold mining equities. The core investment thesis does not rely on gold prices moving higher from current levels to generate substantial returns. [07:28 - 08:25] * Apply a...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Re-evaluate the “Gold vs. Bonds” trade as a core portfolio hedge: While the long-gold position has been successful, the short-bond component has been less effective in US Treasuries. Consider implementing this thesis through alternative expressions, such as going long Japanese banks, which benefit from rising domestic yields. [00:08:02] * Maintain or add to gol...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Fade the AI Hype, Focus on Fundamentals: Based on Nvidia’s earnings action and the unsustainable business models of “neocloud” providers like CoreWeave, investors should avoid or consider shorting overvalued AI hardware and compute stocks. The market is signaling that the data center buildout bubble is peaking. [00:28:47 - 00:30:06] * Prepare for a Commodities...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Rotate portfolio weights away from the U.S. and into non-U.S. developed markets: The structural overweight to the U.S. (75% of global market cap vs. 25% of global GDP) is an extreme anomaly that is likely to revert, making relative value trades (long rest-of-world, short U.S.) a high-conviction opportunity [23:15, 24:30] . * Initiate or increase exposure to har...

1.Strategic Actions and Decisions * Aggressively rotate portfolio exposure away from US large-cap tech : The “Magnificent Seven,” and passive index funds, redirecting capital into international markets, small/mid-cap value, energy, and gold. The group cites a “tectonic shift in leadership” where foreign markets (like China) have already begun to outperform and commodity-driven economies are benefi...

As markets are closed today, we’ve got a special edition of Talking Markets for you, recorded February 11. George Noble , author of the fantastic Noble Update , joined us to share why “the last shall be first and the first shall be last” - as markets are at a critical inflection point where the US-centric, tech-driven leadership of the last few years is handing the baton to the commodities, emergi...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Rotate Capital Out of Tech: Actively reduce exposure to Mag-7 and software stocks (e.g., Microsoft, Nvidia, Palantir) as they show distribution patterns and are “dead money” or in corrective phases. [00:29:35, 00:34:47] * Deploy Capital into Defensive Rotations: Increase allocations to sectors showing accumulation, specifically Energy (XLE), Utilities, and sele...

***UPDATE: tickets for the July 22 summit are now on sale! 15 ELITE INVESTORS ARE REVEALING THEIR TOP STOCK PICKS Jay Pelosky - Keynote Speaker This March 11 virtual conference will be generational. $99. No fluff, no mindset talk – just raw actionable insights to MAKE MONEY Register now to lock in early-bird pricing (recording available if you can’t make it live): Noble-capevents.com This is a pub...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Shift from US to International Markets : As US mega-cap tech corrects, allocate capital to Japan, Europe, and emerging markets, all of which are entering new secular bull markets [00:04:23-00:04:47]. * Overweight Energy, Metals & Regional Banks : Increase exposure to energy (especially offshore/service) and precious metals (gold/miners) as they break out, and p...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Assess capital allocation: Julien Garran states the current AI-driven capital misallocation is 17x worse than the dot-com era, indicating severe systemic risk. [1:50] * Model macroeconomic impact: Prepare for scenarios where a slowdown or reversal in AI investment could reduce GDP by 3-6%, necessitating macro intervention. [2:35] * Evaluate AI vendor financing...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Pivot away from speculative technology investments (AI, crypto, high-valuationsoftware) toward sectors like commodities (gold/silver miners), energy, and international markets [00:02:31 – 00:02:49]. * The AI trade is overvalued and identifies a systemic risk; short or avoid companies reliant on unsustainable AI narratives and “Neo Cloud” financing models [00:50...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Rotate out of tech, software, and crypto—“just say no to technology, just say no to Bitcoin, just say no to software”—and move into energy, materials, and physical assets. [00:07:49 – 00:08:13] * Reassess AI investments immediately. The group discusses breaking news that Nvidia walked away from a $100 billion deal with OpenAI, which they see as a major crack in...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Shift portfolio allocations toward commodities and small-caps, as a major market rotation is confirmed away from large-cap growth and toward natural resources and value. * Maintain or initiate positions in gold and silver, treating pullbacks as consolidation opportunities within a powerful bull market driven by macroeconomic fear, not short-term speculation. *...

1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Portfolio Rebalancing: Divest from government bonds (sovereign debt) and transition toward gold and silver to hedge against “default by inflation” and negative real yields [ 09:02 ]. * Sector Risk Mitigation: Avoid high-beta AI “Neocloud” stocks due to circular financing concerns and unsustainable capital expenditure cycles [ 29:52 ]. * Nuclear Position Adjustm...

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Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, Jay explains why he believes we are in the early stages of a powerful bull market for emerging ma...

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe