The Macro Trading Floor

Alf welcomes back Brent to the show, and the co-host duo discusses macro data, Fed's Waller speech, Japan and China. But most importantly they share thoughts and observations about the current low volatility market regime, how to approach it trying to avoid the most common macro traders' mistakes, and how to think of risk/reward when looking at insurance trades. Here are some non-trading and inves...

This week Alf welcomes Dario Perkins to the show. Dario discusses how we got here with much more benign inflationary dynamics without a big damage to labor markets - hint: Central Bankers were lucky more than skilled. Dario and Alf discuss the path ahead for economies and monetary policy, and a trade idea. Alf opens and closes the show with his thoughts on the big Central Bank events of the week....

The bond market is waking up to the idea that inflation might be a bit stickier and the Fed's hands are tied. Alf and Brent discuss what this implies for global macro asset classes, and highlight a few trade ideas.  Sign up for the free waiting list for Brent's upcoming Spectra School course: https://www.spectramarkets.com/school/

Alf and Brent discuss how animal spirits seem to be running loose in several asset classes. Signs are evident not only in stocks but also in gold, Bitcoin and option markets. They also focus on Japan and the potential tectonic shifts in the Bank of Japan monetary policy stance.

Alf and Brent discuss the outlook for the US economy, and how bond markets have adjusted their pricing to reflect the odds of a soft landing. Is there a trade maybe? They then move their focus to Canada, Europe, New Zealand, China: a tour around the world searching for macro opportunities. Two trade ideas and the most useful/stupidest thing they heard this week to top up the comeback episode of Th...

The Macro Trading Floor is back! And there are quite some surprises...

A last, fascinating tour across global macro asset classes before Alf and Andreas switch the lights off for a while. Want to keep up with Andreas and Alf’s macro views? You can keep up with Andreas through the brand new macro podcast called ‘Macro Sunday’ as well as through his research platform at www.stenoresearch.com, where you can currently get a 30% discount with the code ‘macro30’. Also reme...

In this episode, Alf and Andreas discuss the decisions from the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan.  In a few episodes, The Macro Trading Floor is about to stop for a while: want to keep up with Andreas and Alf’s macro views? You can keep up with Andreas through the brand new macro podcast called ‘Macro Sunday’ as well as through his research platform at www.stenoresearch.com, where you can currently get...

The debt ceiling soap opera is over and hence it’s time to rebuild the Treasury General Account - Alf and Andreas bust some of the myths around this topic, and discuss the real market implications out of this. They also look at inflation developments around the world, labor markets and conclude with some actionable investment ideas. If you enjoyed this episode and you want to read more macro analy...

Tech stocks are pushing stock indexes higher, with AI-related companies (NVIDIA?) leading the rally more decisively while the ''S&P 495'' doesn't join the party. Alf and Andreas discuss this trend, update us on the debt ceiling negotiations, and present some actionable trade ideas. If you enjoyed this episode and you want to read more macro analysis and investment strategy from Alf and Andreas you...

How does a professional macro investor think about a multipolar world where investment opportunities and challenges might lie outside the US and China? How does he manage risks, correlations and how does he go about finding new trade ideas and implementing them? Jim Leitner is one of the great long-standing macro investors of our time and he joins Alf on The Macro Trading Floor to answer these que...

The X-Date for the debt ceiling is approaching and US politicians don't seem keen in finding a swift resolution. This will impact global liquidity, the bond markets and the US Dollar. Alf and Andreas discuss this theme, reflect over US inflation and present some actionable trade ideas. If you enjoyed this episode and you want to read more macro analysis and investment strategy from Alf and Andreas...

Subscribe to The Macro Trading Floor YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFk1qCySNf2FIzIidVVW81A -- Alf and Andreas discuss the recent Federal Reserve and ECB decisions and the market reactions. They also dig deep into the unfolding regional bank crisis and discuss the credit crunch in the US and in the Eurozone. Finally, towards the end of the show they highlight actionable trade id...

Subscribe To The Macro Trading Floor: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFk1qCySNf2FIzIidVVW81A -- On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the continued banking turmoil as First Republic Bank lost around $100 Billion in deposits & saw its stock plunge over 95%. How will this impact loan growth & credit creation in the economy, and how will that in turn impact market...

Subscribe to The Macro Trading Floor YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFk1qCySNf2FIzIidVVW81A -- On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas take a tour of the global macro landscape by looking at the key themes to watch around the globe. We discuss the signals emerging out of Asia and how this will spillover into European & U.S markets. To hear all this and m...

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas begin by breaking down the bank earnings on the back of the recent banking turmoil across markets. We then discuss why markets are rallying as everything from the S&P, Banks & Bitcoin begin to retrace prior losses. With the U.S Dollar also erasing its gains against other major currencies, is this the perfect environment for a continu...

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the recent economic data releases and the growth slowdown they are signalling. We then explore the chances of a Fed pause/pivot. Have the probabilities increased since the recent turmoil in the banking system has given the Fed more cover to reign in their hawkish stance? Finally, Alfonso & Andreas share their actionable trade...

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas begin by discussing the banking turmoil of recent weeks and how commercial real estate could impact loan books in both the U.S and Europe. Alfonso & Andreas then move on to discuss the hot topic of the week, the U.S Dollar. With headlines hitting the wire mentioning energy transactions being conducted in Yuan and further relations be...

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the continued turmoil across the banking sector. Alfonso & Andreas break down the liquidity measures set in place for the current period of banking turmoil which include the Fed's discount window, Bank Term Funding Program and the record $60 billion usage in the FIMA repo facility. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tu...

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the continued fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and what it means for markets. The Fed's H.4.1 report was released this past week, which saw the balance sheet increasing by roughly $300 Billion. The balance sheet increase consisted of a record $152.9 billion usage in the Fed's discount window, $11.9 billion in...

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas walk through the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. On a historic week where we saw the collapse of the largest bank since 2008, we walk through the dynamics throughout 2020 - 2023 that caused SVB to fail, what risks lie ahead and if we should expect spillovers into the broader banking system. To hear all this and more, you'll have to...

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the data points suggesting a possible resurgence of inflation in both the U.S and Europe. As the yield curve continues to reprice higher, how does this impact the higher for longer thesis in rates? Alf and Andreas then share their actionable trade ideas, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's show is sponsored b...

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas walk through the biggest stories of the week and discuss everyone's most asked question right now, hard landing, soft landing or no landing? As the U.S housing market drops the most since 2008, will the economy be able to handle higher rates for a sustained period of time? Alfonso & Andreas then walk through the best risk and reward...

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas reflect on the first six weeks of 2023. As most investors anticipated recessionary pressures in H1, and for markets to head lower, so far "animal spirits" persist, economic data remains strong and markets refuse to budge. Finally, Alf & Andreas share their actionable trade ideas, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow An...

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Andreas and Alfonso welcome Kevin Flanagan Head of Fixed Income Strategy at WisdomTree for a discussion on everything happening in global bond markets. Since 2022, the consensus has flip flopped from recession, to soft landing as markets have rallied, the labor market has remained strong, credit has been fairly contained and signs of financial stress...