The Macro Compass

Welcome back to The Macro Compass - and happy 2023!Thank you for the amazing support last year. I wish you and your families the best for this upcoming year. Tell Me - What Are The Macro Models Saying? The two main forces driving global macro and markets are the rate of change of (nominal) growth and the monetary policy stance. Real-economy money creation and leading macro indicators inform us on...

Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass. In this timely piece we are going to cover the recent Bank of Japan meeting and its implications for markets. Before we start, a kind reminder: if you find value in the timely macro analysis and portfolio strategy The Macro Compass provides, this (and much more) will very soon require a paid subscription. Gates are closing in only 10 days: check out w...

Hi all, and a warm welcome back! Quick reminder: from January 1st, getting access to The Macro Compass content will require a paid subscription. The more I look at what the team is producing for 2023, and the more I get excited about achieving our mission: help people step up their macro game and become better macro investors. The regular content you are used to on this newsletter will be greatly...

(Audio file now fixed) Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass. In this piece we are going to cover the Fed meeting and its implications for markets. For free. One last time. So, a kind reminder: if you find value in the timely macro analysis and portfolio strategy The Macro Compass provides, this (and much more) will very soon require a paid subscription. On the TMC platform we will step up...

Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass. As you know, from January 1st getting access to this content (and much more!) will require a paid subscription . Today we have a big news: monthly subscriptions are now open! Check out which subscription tier suits you the most, and come join this exciting macro learning journey. Let’s step up your macro game! Yes, But Is It Priced In Already? This sh...

Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass! Quick reminder: from January 1st, getting access to this content (and much more!) will require a paid subscription . As a loyal TMC reader, there is an exclusive offer for you: get in now and pay only 9 months instead of 12! The offer is time-limited: it runs for only 4 more days , and out of the 1,000 available spots only 224 are left (78% already ta...

Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass! Quick reminder: from January 1st, getting access to this content (and much more!) will require a paid subscription. The exclusive offer to get in by paying 9 months instead of 12 runs until December 10 ( only 6 days left) , and spots are limited. If you find value in these macro strategy pieces, you are going to love the enhanced TMC products in 2023...

A warm thank you to the 2,000 early birds who took advantage of the exclusive offer and subscribed to The Macro Compass premium services! The ‘‘pay-8-get-12-months’’ offer will not be available anymore. Yet, given the large amount of requests we decided to extend one last time-limited, seats-limited offer to our TMC readers. Until December 10th , the first 1,000 subscribers counting from today wil...

Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass! Quick reminder: from January 1st, getting access to this content (and much more!) will require a paid subscription. As a loyal TMC reader, there is an exclusive offer for you: get in now and pay only 8 months instead of 12! The offer is time-limited: it runs for only 3 more days , and out of the 2,000 available spots only 145 are left ( ~20 for Pro su...

Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass! A quick reminder that from January 1st, getting access to this content (and much more!) will require a paid subscription. The exclusive offer to get in by paying 8 months instead of 12 runs for only 7 more days , and 86% of the available spots have already been taken. Not much time left: check out which subscription tier suits you the most and take ad...

Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass! From January 1st, getting access to this content (and much more!) will require a paid subscription. As a loyal newsletter reader, you can sign up now and get access to the TMC services for the entire 2023 paying only 8 months instead of 12. This offer is limited in both time and spots available. You have until November 30th (10 days left) to be amongs...

Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass! A warm thank you to the many subscribers who secured their spot to continue this macro learning journey together in 2023 by signing up for our premium products. From January 1st, getting access to this content (and much more!) will require a paid subscription. As a loyal newsletter reader, you can sign up now and get access to the TMC services for the...

Hi all, and welcome back to The Macro Compass! Do you remember July? Here we are again: left to assess whether we are looking at a bear market rally or a sustainable turning point for the stock market. Last week’s softer than expected inflation print spurred a massive rally across asset classes: the 60-40 portfolio posted one of its strongest 2-day performances ever, precious metals zoomed higher...

For years, I was blessed with the opportunity to run a $20 billion multi-asset institutional portfolio. And yet, something didn’t feel right. The amount of information, data, and knowledge available to financial institutions is unparalleled…and yet, strictly reserved only for The Ivory Tower members. I didn’t like that. I grew up in a humble background in the South of Italy - my father is a forkli...

‘‘It is VERY premature to think about a pause in our interest rate hiking cycle’’ Jerome Powell - FOMC November press conference Hi all, and welcome back to The Macro Compass! We finally got a pivot - but it wasn’t the one many investors were hoping for. At the FOMC press conference, Powell pivoted from hawkish to… more hakwish. Through the use of 3 unambiguous punchlines , Chairman Powell made su...

‘‘We have made substantial progress in removing monetary policy accommodation, and we have to recognize there are clear signs of an economic slowdown in the Eurozone.’’ Christine Lagarde - ECB October press conference Hi all, and welcome back to The Macro Compass! Over the last two weeks, several G10 Central Banks came across as ready-to-pivot. Australia, Canada and now Europe are starting to weig...

‘‘We want to perceive ourselves as winners, but successful investors are always focusing on their losses.’’ Peter Borish - Founding Partner of Tudor Investment Corporation Hi all, and welcome back to The Macro Compass! This week felt like the good old days. I was in London for some conferences, but most importantly for the Indian food…kidding: I meant to meet clients and friends working for the to...

‘‘Stability leads to instability. The more stable things become and the longer things are stable, the more unstable they will be when the crisis hits.’’ Hyman Minsky Hi all, and welcome back to The Macro Compass! Recently, there have been crucial developments in the (global) pension fund industry. And to give you some context, we are talking about a $40+ trillion industry here. Years and years of...

‘‘History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.’’ Mark Twain Hi all, and welcome back to The Macro Compass - we are now 100,000+ strong, wow! Looking at historical parallels to assess prevailing macro conditions can be a useful exercise - also in markets, one can argue that in the end history doesn’t perfectly repeat itself but if often rhymes. In December 2021, carrying a similar analysis I...

‘‘Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.’’ George Soros - The Man Who Broke The Bank of England Hi all, and welcome back to The Macro Compass! The FX vigilantes are back - and that’s an important news. Global FX markets are on fire, with wild moves involving several currencies around the world and mostl...

‘‘Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the EUR. And believe me, it will be enough .” Mario Draghi, July 2012 ''We will keep at it until inflation is down to 2%. And our monetary policy tightening will be enough. It will be enough to restore price stability.'' Jerome Powell, September 2022 Hi all, and welcome back to The Macro Compass! Yesterday’s Fed meeting was...

''The economy of imaginary wealth is being inevitably replaced by the economy of real and hard assets''. Vladimir Putin, September 2022 Hi all, and welcome back to The Macro Compass! Last week, Vladimir Putin released a massive speech that clearly outlined his strategy to bring Europe to its knees. For decades, Europe’s business model has been largely structured around cheap energy and input costs...

‘‘If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen’’ US President Harry Truman, 1942 Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass! Global markets are at important crossroads. Central Bankers around the world are showing an ever increasing commitment to fight inflation: Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole is being fully digested by bond markets, and the upside surprise in European core inflation ha...

‘‘We will keep at it until we are confident the job (i.e. killing inflation) is done.’’ Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole speech Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass! Economic data continues to disappoint with some pretty impressive downside surprises in leading, interest-rate sensitive sectors like housing. QT is about to accelerate and the friendly dynamics behind the Fed balance sheet compos...

Global macro and markets are a gigantic puzzle that will always fascinate investors and lure most to believe that in the end we can put all the pieces in the right place and find the Holy Grail of Investing. The reality is different: we will always miss some pieces, and we will often be wrong. The common trait of the best investors and hedge fund managers I can call friends is not having a macro c...