The Lumber Word

"The Lumber Word" podcast, hosts Charles, Matt, and Ashley delve into the current market dynamics across various lumber species. They observe that while Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) is experiencing a sell-off, other species are rallying. This divergence prompts a discussion on whether SYP's performance signals a market in harmony. The hosts also explore how traditional traders of Canadian and U.S. s...

Gregg and Ashley are back from the Global Wood Summit in Vancouver and bring Matt up to speed on everything he missed. They dive into insights from the Summit, forecasting where the lumber market might head in 2025. From the ongoing cross-border lumber dispute to potential shifts in production, they break down the factors that could shape next year’s supply and demand. Could we hit $700 Chicago on...

The Lumber Word takes the show on the road and does Episode #97 in front of the live audience. Gregg, Ashley, and Charles talk about what they heard the last few days from industry experts on lumber, logs, pulp & paper along with many other exciting speakers. Mitchell Preger from Industrial Forest Products also joins us today. Thanks to Russ Taylor for the invite and the opportunity to expose...

Join industry veteran Sig Thoma as he dives deep into the factors shaping lumber pricing. Matt and Ashley get Sig's insights on housing affordability, who are snapping up new homes, and the 10-30-year yield curve's impact on the market. We also explore the sticky situation with lumber mill costs, why residuals are a pain, and what expectations for Q1 2025 could bring in terms of curtailments. What...

In this episode, Matt, Gregg, and Ashley dive into a week packed with events shaking up the lumber world. How does the flow of lumber look now, and what can we expect heading into 2025? The team grabs their crystal lumber ball to give you insights into the future. Plus, we dig into the cross-border dispute—who’s getting a slice of that $11 billion pie? What are the hot items and what should you be...

In this episode, Charles DeLaTorre joins us. We break down how #lumber users are adopting the JPT (Just Past Time) inventory method and what it means for the market. With everyone betting on higher prices next year, how should buyers, sellers, and risk managers play their hand? With everyone thinking one thing it will probably not play out the way we all have it scripted in out head.  We also dive...

This week on The Lumber Word, we’re joined by Chris Beard from John Burns Research & Consulting! I’ve seen them at events, and they are the OG of research in this market! Chris dives into the stats that keep our market moving and gives us the John Burns perspective on housing starts, permits, and long-term trends. We ask the big questions: What’s the lag between interest rates and housing dema...

In this episode, Matt, Gregg, and Ashley dive into the post-curtailment lumber world, sharing their seasoned lumber trading insights as they try to make sense of this wild market. Are home centers in for a shock in 2025 with potential production shortfalls? Will there be a rush for premium grades? The team dissects overvalued and undervalued products, ponders why 4" lumber is dragging, and breaks...

In this jam-packed episode, we’re joined by a friend, and lumber industry expert Charles DeLaTorre to upgrade our SYP knowledge. It’s been a whirlwind week in lumber, and with Canfor's recent curtailments shaking up North American markets, we're diving deep into where we stand with supply and demand. Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Ashley had a lively debate on what the future holds for lumber prices in...

 In Episode #90 of "The Lumber Word Podcast," Gregg, Matt, and Ashley dive deep into the current lumber market, debating whether we're at the peak or just getting started. The team discusses the velocity and strength of the truck market, as well as historically low inventory levels. Are mills sitting on a lot of dressed inventory, or are buyers overextending by purchasing extra trucks? With short...

In this episode, we're excited to have Russ Taylor from Russ Taylor Global joining us! We kick things off by chatting about his upcoming event, the Global Wood Summit, happening this October 29-30. And guess what? The Lumber Word will be doing a live podcast right from the event! Go to  www.globalwoodsummit.com  for the details. Today, we dive into the latest market trends from the past 30-60 days...

In this episode, we welcome Joe Pepe from LMC to help us break down the current state of the lumber market. We dive into where we stand in the lumber cycle—is supply finally catching up with demand? Matt highlights the differences between the 2x4 market and 2x6 and wider, while we discuss key indicators to watch for in the upcoming housing starts report. We also explore how lean end users are keep...

In this week's episode of "The Lumber Word," we are joined by Charles DeLaTorre, owner of Industrial Forest Products. Get ready for a lively discussion as we challenge each other on why the lumber market moved over the past month. What did we see that others missed? And more importantly, will it continue? Charles dives into Southern Yellow Pine (SYP), providing insights that are sure to expand you...

In this episode of "The Lumber Word," Matt, Gregg, and Ashley dive into the recent lows in lumber pricing and discuss the recent strength of the past three weeks. With some commodity funds buying back short CME positions, the big question is whether this trend will continue or if they will shift gears again. Why is there so much negativity in the market, and what does it mean for the future? Our h...

In this week's episode of The Lumber Word, we’re joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist for First Trust. Brian shares his expert analysis of the housing market, discussing interest rates, housing supply, and what economic signals mean for the future of housing. He also weighs in on whether we’re in a recession and offers predictions for the prices of new and existing homes. Tune in for this insi...

In this episode of "The Lumber Word," Matt, Gregg, and Ashley are all back together to dive deep into the current lumber market. Matt kicks it off with an engaging update about last week's mood at the Inland golf outing. Gregg follows up with a detailed breakdown of today's housing starts data, providing valuable insights for our listeners. The team then takes a comprehensive look at the market, a...

In this episode, we're joined by Dustin Jalbert, Senior Economist at Wood Products Fastmarkets RISI, to unravel the current zeitgeist of the lumber market. Ever wonder what's going on with supply and demand? We've got you covered as we dive deep into consumption and production figures. We also share our projections for the housing market through the rest of 2024 and into 2025. Plus, we'll update y...

In Episode #82 of "The Lumber Word," we welcome back Charles DeLaTorre to dive deep into the Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) market, along with all other traded species. With four consecutive down months, we explore whether we've hit the bottom or if there's more to come. The crew breaks down the market structure, examining who's long, who's short, and who's potentially thriving or struggling. To under...

In this episode of "The Lumber Word," the team is joined by a special guest, Earl Heath, head analyst from Madison's Lumber Reporter. Together, we dive deep into the lumber industry's looming challenges this year. Are prices ever going to rise? Are production costs as high as producers claim? What will be the tipping point for change? We explore these pressing questions and more, providing our lis...

In this solo episode of "The Lumber Word," Ashley takes the reins while Gregg and Matt are away (they’ll be back next week!). Tune in as Ashley dives into the latest on the lumber market, housing starts, and market structure. Discover the crucial information Ashley relies on daily and weekly, including the Commitment of Traders reports, Volume, and Open Interest, which reveal a lot about the lumbe...

Join us for an exciting episode as we welcome Robin Cross, a renowned lumber trader and broker, to the show. With years of experience in CME lumber futures, Rob has built a stellar reputation for his expertise and client relationships. We kick things off with a deep dive into the cash lumber market before unraveling the intense "Market Structure" standoff between Industry Longs and Fund Shorts. Th...

In this week's episode of "The Lumber Word," we are thrilled to be joined by Matt Layman from  www.laymansguide.com . We dive deep into the current state of the lumber cycle, exploring key insights and trends that are shaping the market. Our lively discussion covers Southern Yellow Pine (SYP), the stalling multi-family housing market, and the mindset of buyers and sellers. We delve into the supply...

In this abbreviated episode of "The Lumber Word," Ashley provides a succinct overview of the lumber market since last week. He discusses key observations and offers a brief prognostication on lumber price movements over the next 60 days. In the latter half of the episode, Ashley delves into the genesis of "The Lumber Word," unveiling new additions to the podcast format and future directions. The e...

Welcome to Episode #76 of "The Lumber Word"! Today, we're diving into the sluggish lumber market with our recurring guest, Casey O'Neil. We'll cover a range of topics, from OSB and lumber to everything in between. Join us as we explore why the industry still holds a lot of hope and discuss the reasons behind the CME's significant premium over cash prices. Whether you're a seasoned lumber trader or...

In this episode of "The Lumber Word," we delve into the dynamics surrounding the May lumber futures expiration. We analyze the Builders' Confidence Index, housing starts, lumber shipments, and the impact of European imports on the market. Our conversation is lively as we discuss strategies for navigating current lumber price levels, including whether to buy forward or adopt a buy-and-hold approach...