The Loonie Hour

Banking crisis spreading across the US and more issues at Credit Suisse. Is this an isolated event or a potential contagion? What are the market implications for Canada? Bond yields are falling. The ECB raises rates. Canadian Real Estate Prices drop 15%, new listings hit 20 year lows.  Buy NordVPN and win extra subscription time https://nordvpn.com/looniehour   See omnystudio.com/listener for priv...

The Bank of Canada keeps rate hikes on pause, threatening a weaker currency as other central banks push forward with higher rates. What does this mean for the typical Canadian household? Important Jobs numbers are released. Inflation upside risks. Continued bull market for Canadian energy? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Canada's GDP was flat in Q4, falling well below the Bank of Canada's forecast. The housing market continues to be starved of inventory as sellers attempt to hold out market conditions. Extend and pretend, amortizations are growing at Canadian banks. Inflation remains sticky across the US and Euro Zone as growth slows.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation in Canada surprised to the downside. However, shelter and food inflation, two things you can't live without- remain elevated. The public sector continues to grow as the entrepreneurial spirit stagnates. Commercial Real Estate remains under pressure. The Market is now more hawkish than the Fed.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

National home prices in Canada continue to slide, falling 12% on a yearly basis, the deepest slide on record. Signs of sticky inflation persist, suggesting the Bank of Canada might still have more work to do on interest rates. The Wealth gap could explode higher in the next recession. Could interest income from high interest rates actually be easing financial conditions?  See omnystudio.com/listen...

A big Vancouver Real Estate Developer goes belly up on over $700M in debt. Is this the canary in the coal mine? The Bank of Canada admits they had to pause over extreme household indebtedness. The Fed says disinflation is underway. The yield curve is now the most inverted since the 1980's. Sign up for Shakepay with the promo code: LOONIEHOUR, and you’ll receive $10 after you buy your first $100 wo...

More rate hikes from the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England. Are markets overly optimistic about the future of interest rates? Is the Canadian housing market nearing a bottom? We have Ron Butler join us for a guest interview to discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly in the Canadian mortgage market. Sign up for Shakepay with the promo code: LOONIEHOUR, and you’ll receive $10 after you buy your...

The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates another 25bps but has signalled they will pause and hold from here. What does this mean for housing and financial conditions? Is a soft landing achievable or wishful thinking? Consumer confidence is increasing but models suggest there is still near a 50/50 chance of a US recession this year. Sign up for Shakepay with the promo code: LOONIEHOUR, and you’...

National house prices continued their slide in December and are now down 17% since peaking. Inflation continues to fall but businesses don't believe we will see 2% inflation anytime soon. Twinkie bets are out, the Bank of Canada is poised for a rate hike next week. Investors are lining up to withdraw nearly $20B worth of funds from private Real Estate. Sign up for Shakepay with the promo code: LOO...

CPI inflation in the US continues to decelerate, right in line with expectations. We discuss the market implications and guess where inflation could be later this year. Canadian Bank CEO's send out a warning to regulators over vulnerable borrowers. The Fed says rising house prices created a wealth effect that boosted inflation. Meanwhile, another central banker says it's not their job to fight cli...

Toronto and Vancouver home sales fell nearly 50% in the month of December. The comps are going to look awful from now until March. Is the Fed looking in the rearview mirror? Why the jobs data is lagging and why it's possible inflation can come down quicker than we might expect. Another recession signal just flashed red. Sign up for Shakepay with the promo code: LOONIEHOUR, and you’ll receive $10 a...

Liquidity is scarce to end the year. Stocks are down, bond yields are rising once again. Delinquencies are set to rise. The boys discuss the outlook for 2023 and provide some forecasts on possible scenarios. Sign up for Shakepay with the promo code: LOONIEHOUR, and you’ll receive $10 after you buy your first $100 worth of bitcoin. https://shakepay.me/r/LOONIEHOUR Register for Loonie Hour Social Ho...

Canada added over 800,000 people to the population, the largest increase going back to the 1970s. The economic machine that is immigrating people and selling them housing continues to churn. CPI inflation remains rather sticky, leaving the Bank of Canada with some difficult decisions in January. Stock market volatility remains elevated as recession risks remain firmly anchored. Sign up for Shakepa...

National home prices continue to slide lower, now down 16% since peaking in March. US headline inflation continues to move lower but the Fed ain't pivoting! More rate hikes from the US, Europe and England this week. Could passive investors see little to no returns for several decades? Sign up for Shakepay with the promo code: LOONIEHOUR, and you’ll receive $10 after you buy your first $100 worth o...

The Bank of Canada raised rates another 50bps, however they are now signaling a pause is in order. What are the implications for markets moving forward? More stress in the housing market, government spending sprees, and the probabilities of a financial crisis. Sign up for Shakepay with the promo code: LOONIEHOUR, and you’ll receive $10 after you buy your first $100 worth of bitcoin. https://shakep...

Canadian GDP growth slows ahead of Bank of Canada rate hike next week. Is the Bank of Canada nearing the end of their rate hike cycle? Retail sales are flat over the past few years and housing is now falling. Jerome Powell readies the market for an easing, bond yields fall as growth slows. Sign up for Shakepay with the promo code: LOONIEHOUR, and you’ll receive $10 after you buy your first $100 wo...

Bank of Canada says half of fixed payment variable rate mortgages have reached their trigger rates and this means that about 13% of all outstanding mortgages are interest only, paying no principal. Meanwhile, the BC Government introduces more housing changes. And China is back into lockdown threatening the outlook for oil demand. Sign up for Shakepay with the promo code: LOONIEHOUR, and you’ll rec...

National house prices slid lower in October, bringing the total price decline to 15% since peaking earlier this year. Some lenders are starting to lay off staff as mortgage applications dry up. While inflation has peaked, recent data suggests it remains quite sticky at 6.9% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the lads discuss the ongoing fraud story of FTX. Sign up for Shakepay with the promo code: LOONIEH...

Romspen, one of Canada’s prominent private mortgage lenders with $3.2-billion in assets under management, is freezing investor redemptions, citing some trouble with loan repayments. Anecdotal evidence is piling up for a hard landing in Canada. Everywhere you look there is something blowing up, including FTX which was the worlds second largest crypto currency exchange. Inflation continues to turn l...

The Fed raised rates another 75bps and says there is still work to be done. Keith makes the case for a hard landing in the months ahead. Big tech stocks continue to get crushed. Meanwhile, the Canadian government has promised to ramp up immigration targets to 500,000 by 2025, with part of the objective to support the housing market. Affordable housing be damned! Sign up for Shakepay with the promo...

The Bank of Canada hiked a dovish 50bps this week, contrary to market expectations for a larger move. Is the Bank of Canada the first to throw in the towel? What are the implications for the Loonie? Meanwhile, new home sales are tanking in Canada, falling more than 90% in Toronto. Financial stability risks are increasing as we await another jumbo hike from the US Fed next week. Live Event at the H...

Canadian inflation continues to decelerate on a rate of change basis but it's coming down too slowly for markets. This is setting the Bank of Canada up for another jump rate hike next week. National house prices continue to slide lower as mortgage rates move towards 6%. Troubles continue to brew in Japan and the UK as sovereign debt issues mount. Loonie Hour Live at Hockey Hall of Fame Tickets: ht...

Another hot inflation print out of the US will keep the Fed from pivoting. Rates are moving higher and we should see 6% mortgage rates in Canada come November. How will the economy digest this? Interest expenses are surging not just at the household level but at the sovereign level. This is where the risks are today. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tiff Macklem says more rate hikes are coming and the job is not done yet. When was the last time a central bank engineered a soft landing? We are nearing a financial mishap. What do Canada's smartest housing people think about the future of the Real Estate market? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Turmoil in the UK as surging interest rates nearly collapsed the entire pension system. The Bank of England is now doing QE with double digit inflation. Pressure is mounting on the Fed but there is no imminent pivot. Canadian GDP remains flat despite record immigration growth, human stimulus is masking a recession. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.