The IRF Podcast

In this podcast Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight discusses the political situation in Japan and the potential impact of the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishida. Tobias then considers the various geopolitical concerns that Japan faces in the Northeast Asian region and the wider world. In particular, he assesses the potential impact of sharply higher crude oil prices on the Japanese economy if the mi...

In this podcast Diana Choyleva explains the reasons for her contrarian call on the near-term outlook for the Chinese currency. She discusses the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy, particularly those in the property sector, and assesses the overall effectiveness of the government’s economic policies. In addition, Diana highlights the geopolitical factors that are now hampering China’s eco...

In this podcast Andrew Hunt discusses in detail the key underlying monetary trends in the main Western economies and explains why he expects a new era of lower interest rates and greater currency volatility as the post-Plaza world crumbles. After an assessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, Andrew considers the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy and how these wil...

In this podcast Shamil Ismail discusses how the rapidly evolving demographic trends will impact on global financial markets. He points out that the strong growth of the global population over the past century provided a firm underpin for market growth. Shamil explains how these demographic trends are changing as some countries’ populations are decreasing and there is a rising proportion of older p...

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. ----more---- Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms.    In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the global financial markets in the first half of 2024 and discusses the outlook for the seco...

In this podcast Peter Warburton, the founder of Economic Perspectives, discusses the outlook for global inflation and the limited scope for action by the major central banks in the US, EU, UK and Japan. Peter also highlights his concerns about the conduct of fiscal policy in several countries since 2019. In doing so, he outlines his contrarian view on financial stability as a constraint on central...

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Wolfgang Munchau, the Founder of Eurointelligence. ----more---- In this podcast, Wolfgang Munchau assesses the outlook for Russia’s attritional war on Ukraine from a European perspective and discusses how it is likely to end. Wolfgang notes that the Ukraine war, and other global developments, have had a profound impact on Germany’s export-orientated economy, whe...

In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a very influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. In their book they predicted that in the medium-term inflation would take off and that interest rates would increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalisation. They argued...

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski of ACG Analytics. ----more---- ACG Analytics is an independent research firm that translates public policy for investment fund managers and analysts. Their research focuses on specific policy issues and actions in the United States, the European Union, Asia and Latin America. They anticipate how government policies in key marke...

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Nicholas Watson, Managing Director of Teneo Political Risk Advisory, to discuss whether the recently elected President Javier Milei will be able to succeed where his predecessors have failed, namely to implement the necessary measures which would lead to a durable stabilisation of the crisis-stricken Argentinian economy. ----more---- In his assessment, Nicholas dis...

David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster, who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models that predict financial markets. ----more---- In this podcast, David Murrin discusses the importance of the Kondratiev (K-wave) commodity super-cycle to the outlook both for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implicati...

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. ----more---- Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research & institutional firms. He specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by his proprietary timing models, which use both quant...

The IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke Environmental, Social & Governance-related research and investment advice. ----more---- In this podcast Lenka Martinek reviews the performance of ESG investments in 2023 and highlights the influence of global geopolitical and macroeconomic factors on...

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder and Senior Analyst of Intertemporal Economics. ----more---- Brian founded Intertemporal Economics in 2018. Previously he worked with Bernard Connolly as a senior analyst at Connolly Insight, where he specialised in geopolitical event risk, monetary policy, labour markets and energy. Prior to Connolly Insight, Brian was employed in v...

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of the CPM Group. ----more---- Jeffrey has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeff provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for com...

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Marcos Buscaglia, the Founder of Alberdi Partners. ----more---- In this podcast Marcos discusses the political and economic outlook for various countries in Latin America, including Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador. Marcos founded Alberdi Partners in 2016 to provide economic, political and market research services on Latin American countries for institutiona...

David Osman of the IRF is joined by Ryoji Musha, the Founder of Musha Research.   Ryoji Musha founded Musha Research in 2009 following a long and distinguished career working for leading global investment banks in Japan and the USA since 1973. During that period, he achieved the top-rating for Japan Equity Strategy in the Institutional Investor polls.   In this podcast Ryoji Musha discusses the re...

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory. Ron is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms. ----more---- In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the US dollar in the first half of this year and assesses the outlook for the US currency against the eu...

The IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke environmental, social & governance-related research and investment advice. ----more---- ESG investing has become an essential aspect of the services that many financial institutions provide for their clients. Given the growing popularity of ethical inves...

In conversation with the IRF's JP Smith, Mark Latham Founder and CEO of Commodity Intelligence explains how his news story driven AI process helps the team to identify prevailing narratives in the market and potential inflection points. ----more---- Over the past three years this approach has led to some very timely calls, including a relatively bearish stance on the energy complex in 2022 prior t...

This latest episode of the IRF Podcast looks at the outlook for the Turkish economy and financial assets in the wake of Turkey's 2023 first-round election. ----more---- IRF Senior Advisor, JP Smith hosts Michael Harris, Founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, who's been ranked number one strategist for Turkey thirteen times.    Mike outlines the probable outcome for the forthcoming second round, lik...

The IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder of Intertemporal Economics. ----more---- In this podcast Brian Pellegrini discusses the political factors that influence the recurring problems relating to Congress passing legislation to raise the US debt ceiling. Brian reflects on the various fiscal, monetary and macro-prudential policy dilemmas associated with the recent spike in inflationary p...

The IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money. ----more----   In this podcast Helen reflects on Rishi Sunak’s premiership so far and assesses the prospects for the UK economy and financial markets in the year ahead. She discusses the outlook for economic growth, inflation and monetary policy.    Helen compares the outlook for interest rates and government bond yields in the...

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Patrick Perret-Green, the Founder of PPG Macro. ----more---- In this podcast Patrick argues that the impact of the problems in the banking sector is likely to be highly disinflationary as the contraction in credit creation outweighs the creation of money by the US Fed. Whilst the stock of money supply remains extremely high, the flow is contracting at a rate unseen...

David Osman of IRF is joined by Ben Rabidoux, the Founder of North Cove Advisors. ----more---- They discuss the importance of the housing sector as a driver of consumer spending and broader economic growth in Canada. The Canadian government is trying to achieve a soft-landing with the central bank providing an appropriate degree of monetary tightening to curb inflation without creating a recession...