The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One

This year has not been short on worries for market participants. Now, another concern is creeping onto the list: stagflation. Early signals of a slowing US economy, coupled with rising prices, have caught investors’ attention, though they are not yet fully reflected in market pricing. John Stopford unpacks the complex likelihood of stagflation taking hold, its potential impact and how he is positi...

Infrastructure credit is emerging as a powerful way for institutional investors to combine resilient returns with real-world impact. Thanzi Ramukosi highlights a strong pipeline across energy, water, transport and digital connectivity, offering diversification, stability and support for South Africa’s development. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Malcolm Charles unpacks the contrasting outlooks for global bond markets, starting with a ‘sunnier’ South Africa buoyed by improving fundamentals and resilient fixed income returns, before heading offshore where clouds of policy uncertainty and tariff tensions loom large. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A global commodity index has hovered near multi-year highs for months, but beneath the surface, individual commodities tell very different stories. George Cheveley delves into the supply-and-demand dynamics behind key commodities, including platinum group metals, copper, oil, and gold. He discusses what’s powering the rally, and what may lie ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more i...

The South African Reserve Bank delivered a widely expected 25 basis-point rate cut, but surprised the market with its ambition to target a 3% inflation rate sooner than anticipated. Vivienne Taberer analyses the decision, decodes the Governor’s tone and shares her take on what’s next for SA interest rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The JSE All Share Index has surged past the 100 000 mark, doubling in just 5 years. Hannes van den Berg explores the significance of this milestone, while cautioning that the rally has been narrow, driven largely by the Resources sector and a handful of heavyweight stocks. He raises the key question: can SA Inc. step up to broaden the market rally? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more i...

As the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar plays a pivotal role in global markets. But has it reached a critical inflection point? Sahil Mahtani, Director at Ninety One’s Investment Institute, examines four key forces that may have already ended the dollar’s long-term bull run – potentially marking the start of a multi-year bear market cycle. The implications for asset allocators and investors...

After a turbulent start to 2025 driven by tariff tensions, markets have found firmer footing. Sisamkele Kobus unpacks South Africa’s economic trajectory, the ups and downs of the Government of National Unity (GNU), and the South African Reserve Bank’s stance on inflation, before offering her reflections on inflation targeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Geopolitical tensions have once again exposed the oil market’s vulnerability to global events, fueling volatility and uncertainty for producers, consumers, and investors alike. Paul Gooden unpacks the forces driving recent market disruptions, including the fragile truce, the role of OPEC+ and US shale producers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fixed income has long held ‘safe-haven’ status, but that reputation is cracking. In bond markets today, old assumptions are being upended. Peter Kent unpacks the blurring lines between developed and emerging market debt, the new global order where traditional labels no longer apply, and why bonds' defensive qualities are no longer a given. Meanwhile, headwinds for emerging markets are easing – and...

With CPI consistently below the target range, the SARB is proposing a lower, more ambitious 3% anchor. Vivienne Taberer examines what a 3% target would mean for the economy, markets, the rand, and monetary policy, concluding that the long-term gain would outweigh the short-term pain.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After a turbulent start to the year, 2025 is evolving into a year of opportunity. Malcolm Charles unpacks the key drivers of the bond market and dives into two significant events for South Africa: Budget 3.0 and President Ramaphosa’s recent meeting with Donald Trump. He explores what these developments could mean for the economy, markets, and sets out their positioning. Hosted on Acast. See acast....

Fresh from a meeting with National Treasury, Adam Furlan shares a cautiously optimistic view on Budget 3.0. With signs of fiscal discipline and borrowing restraint, he unpacks the key takeaways – and what they mean for bonds and the rand. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Moody’s, after some deliberation, joined its peers and knocked the US off its AAA perch. Markets seemingly shrugged it off, but it’s not that simple. John Stopford unpacks the implications, including why Trump’s "Big Beautiful Bill" could trigger a Truss-style trauma. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ninety One’s 2025 Capital Market Assumptions was recently published based on data until the end of March, before the Trump tariff shock that so unnerved market participants. But as Daniel Morgan explains, many asset classes have already come full circle. Looking ahead, however, he anticipates a decade of modest returns where outperformance is unlikely to come from broad exposure alone, requiring i...

Inflation is under control in South Africa and the price of money surely set to fall. Despite an uncertain international backdrop, the SARB is expected to cut interest rates twice this year. Vivienne Taberer examines the case for cuts, why prices are behaving in South Africa and why the MPC is hawkish. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Paul Gooden breaks down the complex forces moving oil and gas prices in 2025 — from OPEC’s fragile balancing act to the fading punch of US shale. But the real story might be in natural gas, where AI demand, electrification, and LNG exports are shaping a compelling new growth curve. This is energy investing beyond the headlines — analytical, forward-looking, and grounded in a global perspective. Ho...

Hannes van den Berg, unpacks how the team is navigating 2025’s waves of volatility. From sentiment swings and shifting earnings trends to gold’s safe-haven rally and the trade tensions shaping global equities — this conversation offers a timely look at what’s working (and what’s not) and why conviction matters more than ever. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A 100 days have flown by. Under the stewardship of Donald Trump, the US and the world have had to sit up and take notice, sometimes for all the wrong reasons. Philip Saunders and Lindsay Williams try to remain non-partisan when discussing this most divisive of US Presidents by analysing his impact on an assortment of asset classes. While Lindsay quietly gnashes his teeth, Philip methodically stand...

In this episode, we explore how corporate cash can work harder—without compromising on liquidity or safety. With the repo rate steady and a VAT hike ahead, Tsitsi Hatendi-Matika unpacks practical strategies that can be tailored to match corporates' operational cash flow cycle.    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Trump administration’s varied and often controversial executive orders and policy changes have kept market participants on edge. US assets, having been a dominant force for investors for so long have recently underperformed. The fear is that certain measures, notably tariffs, will crimp economic growth and push inflation higher. Philip Saunders discusses whether these fears are justified and i...

The revised Budget tackles the near-impossible challenge of driving growth while managing fiscal pressures and funding critical sectors. Adam Furlan explores what it reveals about the dynamics within the Government of National Unity (GNU), unpacks the short-term market reaction and long-term implications, and outlines the positioning of the Ninety One Diversified Income Fund. Hosted on Acast. See...

For nearly 25 years, JIBAR (Johannesburg Interbank Average Rate) has been South Africa’s preferred benchmark rate for overnight and term lending. This is set to change as Zaronia (the SA Rand Overnight Index Average) replaces Jibar. In the inaugural episode of our Cash Talk series, Vivienne Taberer unpacks the upcoming changes and the likely impact on cash investments. Hosted on Acast. See ac...

The furious pace of political pronouncements in the first quarter of 2025 has economies and markets on high alert. SA has not been spared, as aid from the US has been halted and tariffs threatened. Hannes van den Berg analyses all these factors and explains how he navigates investment decision-making as the noise grows louder. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It’s not just gold that’s been on an upward trajectory. Commodity prices across the board have been rising from the low Covid base of 2020. Recent short-term upward momentum has in part been fueled by the much-vaunted Trump tariff syndrome, but other factors are also contributing. George Cheveley summarises the commodities complex with a special focus on gold, and sets out where he sees opportunit...