Hot Hand Theory
The Hot Hand Theory Podcast
Where film breakdown meets data analysis in real basketball conversations. XJ and Geoff challenge conventional wisdom about what drives winning, how players create value, and what the game is actually showing us. We bring behavioral science and strategic thinking to NBA analysis, testing theories against what we see on the court. New podcast episodes drop weekly.
Where to listen?
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Episodes
Will the Knicks regret trading Immanuel Quickley? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast EP 11 (Pt 1) 03.01.2024 50:55
On the eleventh episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, Geoff and XJ discuss the Knicks trading Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett for OG Anunoby. The two share their macro and micro takeaways from the trade and look forward to the future for both the Knicks and Raptors post-deal. Additionally, they discuss miscellaneous topics such as whether Donte DiVincenzo's incredible shooting is sustainable an...
Magic and Pacers cooling off and Wolves title contenders? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast EP 10 (Pt 2) 28.12.2023 1:01:28
On part 2 of the tenth episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, Geoff and XJ discuss the Orlando Magic's and Indiana Pacers' recent struggles and debate whether the Minnesota Timberwolves are legitimate title contenders.
Are the Knicks Quickley approaching a fork in the road? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast EP 10 (Pt 1) 28.12.2023 47:00
On the tenth episode (🎉) of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, XJ and Geoff discuss the Knicks' recent game against the Thunder and break down all angles of Substitutiongate. The two talk about why they each disagree with Tom Thibodeau's rationale for substituting RJ Barrett for Immanuel Quickley to combat the Thunder's length at the wing position and explain why—concerning lineups and rotations—the "w...
Exploring the Nets' Potential and Bucks' Ceiling | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast EP 9 (Pt 2) 20.12.2023 33:29
On Part 2 of the ninth episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, XJ and Geoff discuss the Nets and Bucks. The two speculate whether the Nets may be more of a dangerous team than they are given credit for and imagine how they might look if they acquired Donovan Mitchell. In the second half of the conversation, they debate whether Dame and the Bucks have a ceiling they haven't yet reached and if they...
Knicks' Offensive Surge and Defensive Dilemmas | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast EP 9 (Pt 1) 20.12.2023 1:11:26
On the ninth episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, XJ and Geoff discuss the Knicks' recent offensive success on their West Coast trip and their defensive struggles over the past couple of weeks. The two explore the effects of various rotation decisions made by the team as well as potential lineup configurations. In this first part of the pod, Geoff and XJ also talk about RJ Barrett's defensive i...
Underrated players, fading stars, and LeBron's greatness | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast EP 8 (Pt 2) 13.12.2023 1:03:00
On Part 2 of the eighth episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, XJ and Geoff discuss the Jazz, Suns, Clippers, and Lakers. The two talk about how a player like Lauri Markkanen is able to always have an additive effect on his team and would allow star or superstar-level teammates to be their best selves without compromising his own impact. They also talk about how good Jusuf Nurkic has been despite...
Who is the Knicks' most impactful center? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast EP 8 (Pt 1) 13.12.2023 40:57
On the eighth episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, hosts Geoff and XJ discuss the current state of the Knicks after learning they will not have Mitchell Robinson for at least the next 2 months. In Part 1 of the pod, the two also discuss how not having Immanuel Quickley affects the team's overall performance, how the Knicks can get back on track defensively, and the different ways that Mitchell...
Real or Not Real ft. ShwinnyPooh! | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast EP Ep 7 (Pt 2) 05.12.2023 1:27:45
On part 2 of the seventh episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, Geoff, XJ, and ShwinnyPooh of The Strickland determine whether some early trends around the league are “real” and sustainable in the long term or "not real” and we should expect to see a substantial change in a positive or negative direction over a larger sample size. The trio explores: • Whether a Brunson + Quickley Knicks' starting...
Real or Not Real ft. ShwinnyPooh! | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast EP Ep 7 (Pt 1) 05.12.2023 47:20
On the seventh episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, hosts Geoff and XJ welcome their first-ever guest, the insightful ShwinnyPooh from The Strickland! In this captivating Part 1 of the pod, the dynamic trio dives deep into a riveting recap of the Knicks' season. Shwin passionately unveils why Knicks fans should relish the current team state and provides a compelling analysis of the squad's very...
Interesting insights on the Hornets, Pistons, and Raptors | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast Ep 6 (Pt 2) 28.11.2023 54:27
In part two of the sixth episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, Geoff and XJ discuss the Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, and Toronto Raptors. The two explore whether the Hornets have an underrated young core, theorize that the Pistons could actually be much more talented than their production would suggest, and posit whether the Raptors should execute one big move that could change their traj...
Is the Julius Randle "D-Day" approaching? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast Ep 6 (Pt 1) 28.11.2023 1:09:59
On the sixth episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, Geoff and XJ give their broad takeaways from the first 16 games of the Knicks' season. The pair discuss Julius Randle and whether the Knicks are approaching a point where they must decide about his future with the team sooner than you might think. The episode also includes a discussion about whether Jalen Brunson can be the best offensive player...
What are NBA "impact metrics" and how can we use them? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast Ep 5 (Pt 3) 22.11.2023 1:05:13
XJ and Geoff do a deep dive discussing "impact metrics" - advanced analytics that attempt to quantify a player's overall contribution to their team's success on the court represented by a single number - and how we can use them as a part of our basketball analysis. The two discuss interesting observations from the season's first release of Dunks and Threes' EPM grades. The discussion includes a he...
Is Julius Randle the key to beating the Heat (and Suns)? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast Ep 5 (Pt 2) 22.11.2023 22:09
XJ and Geoff talk about how the Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns are playing so far this season. The conversation includes a discussion about whether Julius Randle is the key to the Knicks' ability to defeat both teams and a discussion of the merits and methods of double-teaming superstar players like Kevin Durant.
How promising is the Knicks' early season performance? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast Ep 5 (Pt 1) 22.11.2023 1:12:18
On the fifth episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, Geoff and XJ recap the Knicks' loss to the Timberwolves and previous wins over the Hornets, Wizards, and Hawks. The pair debate over whether there is any concern about the Knicks' poor record against the better teams in the league or if their dismantling of bad teams is a cause for optimism. The episode includes a discussion of how Immanuel Quic...
Has Anthony Edwards made the leap to MVP level? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast Ep 4 (Part 2) 14.11.2023 1:28:27
In part 2 of the fourth episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, Geoff and XJ discuss interesting observations on the Hawks, Wizards, Hornets, and Timberwolves. Among other topics, the pair discuss whether Anthony Edwards has made the quantum lead to MVP level and have a nuanced debate over the sustainability of RJ Barrett's performance this year.
Are the Knicks now overly dependent on RJ Barrett? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast Ep 4 (Part 1) 14.11.2023 52:52
On the fourth episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, Geoff and XJ recap the Knicks' loss to the Celtics and wins over the Spurs and Hornets. The conversation includes a discussion of Julius Randle's concerning inconsistency, the Knicks' improved ball movement this season, and how RJ's amazing start affects the team's plans.
Are the Knicks back on track for 50+ wins? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast Ep 3 07.11.2023 1:48:08
On the third episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, Geoff and XJ recap the Knicks' big win over the Clippers and preview their upcoming week of games against the Spurs, Hornets, and Celtics. The conversation includes a discussion of Mitchell Robinson's next-level play and the outsized impact of rebounding on both offensive and defensive success. The two also have a fascinating conversation about...
What's real from the Knicks first 3 games? | The Hot Hand Theory Podcast Ep 2 31.10.2023 1:53:18
On the second episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, Geoff and XJ recap the first week of the New York Knicks' 2023-24 season, including a discussion of RJ Barrett's tremendous play on both sides and Immanuel Quickley's concerning approach and challenge a common perception about Julius Randle. The two also dive into a preview of the upcoming 4 games against the Cavs, Bucks, and Clippers.
Hot Hand Theory Podcast Episode 1 24.10.2023 1:54:50
On the first episode of the Hot Hand Theory Podcast, Geoff and XJ preview the New York Knicks 2023-24 season, including a recap of the preseason and offseason, their projections for the Knicks' record this year, and an analysis of the Knicks' first three games regular season games. The two also dive into an interesting conversation about the different ways that RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley imp...
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