The Horn

COP27 will be hosted on the African continent this year and presents a unique opportunity to bring more attention to the already devastating impact of climate change on African countries. While the Global North is producing the majority of emissions driving climate change, its fallout is disproportionately felt in the Global South. Meanwhile, the potential links between climate change as a potenti...

The Horn of Africa is in a tumultuous period. Armed conflict has returned to Ethiopia’s Tigray region after a humanitarian truce between the federal government and Tigrayan leaders collapsed in August. A political impasse between the military leadership and the civilian pro-democracy movement in Sudan has paralysed the country’s political transition. Meanwhile, the younger generation in the region...

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire! . Just a few months back, a humanitarian truce in Ethiopia offered a glimmer of hope that an end might be in sight to the war in and around the country’s northern Tigray region. Fighting pitted the federal government, forces from the Amhara region, bordering Tigray, and Eritrean troops on one ha...

The African continent is facing a multitude of challenges ranging from food and commodity insecurity worsened by the war in Ukraine, to the climate crisis, strong economic headwinds and ongoing deadly conflict in various areas. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has accelerated global political trends unravelling the prevailing order, putting African countries increasingly in the crossfire of geopoliti...

Kenyans went to the polls last week in what turned out to be a closely fought but so far strikingly peaceful election. After six tense days of vote counting, Deputy President Ruto was declared Kenya’s next President with a wafer-thin majority. While the election has been broadly regarded as free and fair, his challenger, Raila Odinga, a political heavyweight backed by outgoing President and former...

To mark the end of Season Three of The Horn , Alan discusses a few major developments in the region with Crisis Group experts. First up, he speaks to William Davison, Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, to discuss the prospect for possible peace talks in Ethiopia after the humanitarian ceasefire declared in March between federal and Tigrayan forces. They discuss the recent welcome steps towards peace tal...

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Kenya from Crisis Group's Global Podcast Hold Your Fire! . Kenya’s presidential race has been turned upside down. After a high-profile split with President Kenyatta, his deputy William Ruto – despite being in government for the last nine years – is running on an anti-establishment platform. Having distanced himself from Kenyatta, Ruto is positioning hims...

Somalia has been fighting the Al-Shabaab jihadist insurgency for well over a decade. After reclaiming control of Mogadishu and other cities in the early 2010s, government forces – with the support of African Union troops – have made limited progress since. Instead, Al-Shabaab has adopted guerilla tactics and managed to consolidate control of rural areas, while regularly conducting deadly attacks o...

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected on the slogan: “Somalia at peace with itself and at peace with the world”. As Somalia’s former leader returns to power after five years, the country faces immense challenges. For one, the Islamist group Al-Shabaab continues to control significant swathes of territory, as the new leadership tries to regain ground and make improvements in the security sector. Lookin...

Many African countries are suffering from the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: disrupted wheat supplies, soaring prices for industrial goods and raw materials, as well as a shifting of the world’s attention from the needs of the Global South. At the same time, African diplomacy on the Ukraine war has been mostly muted. While a lot of media coverage is given to the handful of countries...

Russia’s relations with Africa are under even greater scrutiny in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine and amid the mixed reaction of African states toward the new war in Europe. Over recent years, Moscow has bolstered ties with countries all over the continent, particularly those plagued by internal violence and disillusioned with Western powers. Russia remains a leading arms supplier and Russian...

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire! . After almost seventeen months of devastating civil war in Ethiopia, the federal government on 24 March announced what it called a humanitarian truce. The offer would ostensibly allow aid into Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, which has, in effect, been under a blockade for months and where mi...

Extreme weather events in Africa are becoming increasingly common, often striking in areas already prone to insecurity and scarcity. While the relationship between climate and security is both complex and context-specific, the broad risks are clear: modelling shows that temperature increases of as little as half a degree could, in some contexts, lead to a 10-20 per cent increase in the risk of vio...

Africa’s response to the Ukraine crisis has been far from united. Emerging rifts were on stark display during the historic UN General Assembly session in early March: only around half of African states supported the resolution’s denunciation of Russian aggression. Where some countries robustly condemned the invasion as a flagrant violation of crucial norms, others were more hesitant, often highlig...

The African Union (AU) faces worrying headwinds in the year ahead. As the organisation approaches its twentieth anniversary, the democratic norms enshrined in its peace and security mandate look increasingly under threat. A recent coup in Burkina Faso just days before this year's AU summit marked the latest in a string of military takeovers that have toppled democratic governments in the Sahel and...

Sudan has been at a political impasse since a military coup in October removed the civilian-led government that had been leading the country's transition since the toppling of Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Attempts at wrangling a new power-sharing agreement with the military have so far failed to break the deadlock: a deal with former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok proved fruitless, prompting him to resi...

The project of forging a more united Horn of Africa has been a clear victim of the myriad crises rippling through East Africa. Regional security infrastructure has collapsed and attempts at multilateral conflict resolution have floundered. For its part, the body responsible for ensuring regional security, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), has become dysfunctional and seems in...

Recent weeks have seen yet another major turn of events in Ethiopia’s civil war. Only a month ago, the momentum was firmly on the Tigray side after an advance toward the capital. In response, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed exhorted citizens to enlist and vowed to lead a counteroffensive from the frontlines. Foreign governments also swooped in with support, especially drones, which altered the conflict’...

The African Union’s mission (AMISOM) has operated in Somalia for close to fifteen years. Initial military successes have led to a stalemate on the battlefield, as the military coalition of regional African troops has struggled to permanently degrade jihadist insurgent group Al-Shabaab. Frustration is mounting, both in Somalia and abroad. The Somali government, led by Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Far...

Even the most seasoned observers have been stunned by Ethiopia’s recent twists and turns. The first shock came in 2018, when the country saw a peaceful transfer of power to a coalition led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. For some, this promised a turning point for a country that had long struggled to open its political space and find a workable political model that balanced its strong state with reg...

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Somalia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire! . This week, as Ethiopia’s civil war enters its second year, Tigrayan rebels captured the strategically placed cities of Dessie and Kombolcha, only hours away from the country’s capital Addis Ababa. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed imposed a state of emergency and exhorted citizens to take up arms to de...

Sudan’s political order is crumbling. On 25 October, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and other senior officers ousted the country’s civilian government. A week on, it is unclear whether Sudan’s fragile transition can be salvaged. While vast demonstrations condemning the power grab pose a serious challenge to the generals, a coalition of military leaders and armed groups have closed ranks in support...

Civil activists in Africa face increasingly strong headwinds. States continue to use tried-and-tested repression alongside increasingly sophisticated forms of legal and financial pressure to limit the influence of the continent’s activists. Despite these obstacles, Africa is brimming with energy, as showcased during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet this political activism does not always follow the path...

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Somalia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire! . Many people in the Somali capital Mogadishu watched with apprehension as the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan. Could Somalia, struggling against its own Islamist insurgency – Al-Shabaab  – face a similar fate? In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are jo...

As the twenty-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks approaches, this last instalment of The Horn ’s mini-series about jihadism along the Swahili coast explores two decades of the “war on terror” and how they affected the Horn of Africa. Alan Boswell welcomes a panel including Crisis Group’s Murithi Mutiga, project director for the Horn of Africa, the BBC’s Mary Harper and Boston University Professo...