The Horn

Russia’s relations with Africa are under even greater scrutiny in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine and amid the mixed reaction of African states toward the new war in Europe. Over recent years, Moscow has bolstered ties with countries all over the continent, particularly those plagued by internal violence and disillusioned with Western powers. Russia remains a leading arms supplier and Russian...

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire! . After almost seventeen months of devastating civil war in Ethiopia, the federal government on 24 March announced what it called a humanitarian truce. The offer would ostensibly allow aid into Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, which has, in effect, been under a blockade for months and where mi...

Extreme weather events in Africa are becoming increasingly common, often striking in areas already prone to insecurity and scarcity. While the relationship between climate and security is both complex and context-specific, the broad risks are clear: modelling shows that temperature increases of as little as half a degree could, in some contexts, lead to a 10-20 per cent increase in the risk of vio...

Africa’s response to the Ukraine crisis has been far from united. Emerging rifts were on stark display during the historic UN General Assembly session in early March: only around half of African states supported the resolution’s denunciation of Russian aggression. Where some countries robustly condemned the invasion as a flagrant violation of crucial norms, others were more hesitant, often highlig...

The African Union (AU) faces worrying headwinds in the year ahead. As the organisation approaches its twentieth anniversary, the democratic norms enshrined in its peace and security mandate look increasingly under threat. A recent coup in Burkina Faso just days before this year's AU summit marked the latest in a string of military takeovers that have toppled democratic governments in the Sahel and...

Sudan has been at a political impasse since a military coup in October removed the civilian-led government that had been leading the country's transition since the toppling of Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Attempts at wrangling a new power-sharing agreement with the military have so far failed to break the deadlock: a deal with former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok proved fruitless, prompting him to resi...

The project of forging a more united Horn of Africa has been a clear victim of the myriad crises rippling through East Africa. Regional security infrastructure has collapsed and attempts at multilateral conflict resolution have floundered. For its part, the body responsible for ensuring regional security, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), has become dysfunctional and seems in...

Recent weeks have seen yet another major turn of events in Ethiopia’s civil war. Only a month ago, the momentum was firmly on the Tigray side after an advance toward the capital. In response, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed exhorted citizens to enlist and vowed to lead a counteroffensive from the frontlines. Foreign governments also swooped in with support, especially drones, which altered the conflict’...

The African Union’s mission (AMISOM) has operated in Somalia for close to fifteen years. Initial military successes have led to a stalemate on the battlefield, as the military coalition of regional African troops has struggled to permanently degrade jihadist insurgent group Al-Shabaab. Frustration is mounting, both in Somalia and abroad. The Somali government, led by Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Far...

Even the most seasoned observers have been stunned by Ethiopia’s recent twists and turns. The first shock came in 2018, when the country saw a peaceful transfer of power to a coalition led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. For some, this promised a turning point for a country that had long struggled to open its political space and find a workable political model that balanced its strong state with reg...

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Somalia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire! . This week, as Ethiopia’s civil war enters its second year, Tigrayan rebels captured the strategically placed cities of Dessie and Kombolcha, only hours away from the country’s capital Addis Ababa. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed imposed a state of emergency and exhorted citizens to take up arms to de...

Sudan’s political order is crumbling. On 25 October, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and other senior officers ousted the country’s civilian government. A week on, it is unclear whether Sudan’s fragile transition can be salvaged. While vast demonstrations condemning the power grab pose a serious challenge to the generals, a coalition of military leaders and armed groups have closed ranks in support...

Civil activists in Africa face increasingly strong headwinds. States continue to use tried-and-tested repression alongside increasingly sophisticated forms of legal and financial pressure to limit the influence of the continent’s activists. Despite these obstacles, Africa is brimming with energy, as showcased during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet this political activism does not always follow the path...

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Somalia from Crisis Group's global podcast Hold Your Fire! . Many people in the Somali capital Mogadishu watched with apprehension as the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan. Could Somalia, struggling against its own Islamist insurgency – Al-Shabaab  – face a similar fate? In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are jo...

As the twenty-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks approaches, this last instalment of The Horn ’s mini-series about jihadism along the Swahili coast explores two decades of the “war on terror” and how they affected the Horn of Africa. Alan Boswell welcomes a panel including Crisis Group’s Murithi Mutiga, project director for the Horn of Africa, the BBC’s Mary Harper and Boston University Professo...

As jihadist ideologies have spread across Eastern Africa, governments are struggling to counter their growth, while the militant movements themselves are divided between the competing franchises of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Meanwhile, the dominant jihadist group in the region, Al-Shabaab, is emboldened by the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan. What does the future hold? In this episode of&nbs...

The roots of militancy in northern Mozambique go back years, but the insurgency’s true extent didn’t catch the world’s attention until the Cabo Delgado attacks earlier this year. Meanwhile, a humanitarian crisis worsens and neighbouring countries are deploying troops to help reverse the threat. As yet, however, there is little progress toward resolving the conflict. In a new episode of The Horn ’s...

Somalia’s Al-Shabaab insurgency was born of a strong nationalistic reaction to the Ethiopian invasion in 2006. Over the years since, the group has treaded a thin line between galvanising local support and tapping into the rhetoric of global jihadism, including through allegiance to al-Qaeda – a strategy that has seen it grow in prominence amid a governance vacuum. In this second instalment of a mi...

In this first episode of The Horn ’s special mini-series about jihadism along the Eastern African seaboard, Alan Boswell talks with historian and analyst Ngala Chome about how new ideologies East Africans brought back from the Middle East sowed the seeds of militant doctrines that took root within some communities amid a climate of political marginalisation.   They unpack the role of col...

Last month, the war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region took a stunning turn as Tigrayan forces retook the regional capital Mekelle. This week, Alan Boswell talks with Declan Walsh, Chief Africa Correspondent for The New York Times , about his reporting at the moment federal forces evacuated Mekelle and his reflections as the conflict continues to escalate and spread.    Walsh offers an on-...

This week marks the tenth anniversary of South Sudan’s independence, much-celebrated at the time but now eclipsed by the brutal civil war that followed. The conflict, which saw the army split along ethnic lines, killed an estimated 400,000 people and displaced a third of the country’s population. A 2018 peace deal signed by the war’s two main protagonists, President Salva Kiir and his former Vice...

In July 2011, South Sudan gained independence with immense international support. Achieving statehood was seen by many as the end of an unstable coexistence with Sudan, but the bloody decade that followed is testament to the dangers and difficulties of state-building.  Joining Alan Boswell this week to reflect on South Sudan’s troubled ten-year journey is Dr. Luka Biong Deng Kuol, Dean of Aca...

Earlier this week, fighters loyal to the ousted leaders of Ethiopia’s Tigray region recaptured Mekelle, the regional capital, as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed withdrew federal forces and announced a unilateral ceasefire after eight months of brutal war. This week on  Hold Your Fire! , Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia, about this dram...

Somaliland is enjoying a boost following parliamentary elections at the end of May that resulted in a surprise victory for the opposition. Dr. Mohamed Farah Hersi joins Alan Boswell to explain what this changing political dynamic means for the country as it continues its quest for recognition as an independent country. They discuss the strong bonds that hold Somaliland together in pursuit of exter...

Ethiopia is set to hold delayed elections on 21 June, a milestone that – before the ongoing war in the Tigray region – many observers believed would be a litmus test for the transition under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Violent flare-ups in various parts of the country, a poll boycott by some opposition groups and postponed votes in several locations all cast a shadow over the landmark election. Joi...