The HC Commodities Podcast

On March 8th 2022, Nickel prices spiked 100% to $100,000 a tonne in a matter of hours, triggering billions of dollars in margin calls and threatening the very existence of the exchange. The LME took the unprecedented, and controversial, step of cancelling all trades made that day. A decision which enraged some but saved the exchange and the shorts, creating a cascade of legal battles continuing to...

In 1993, Metallgesellschaft, the German Global Industrial conglomerate lost $1.3bln in oil derivatives trading through its US subsidiary MGRM. The details leading up to their implosion and the subsequent actions taken by their CEO, trading counterparties and their lending banks have been hotly debated by academia, business school students and their contemporaries in the markets ever since. In this...

Tantalum… a story of insatiable demand with Hadley Natus You probably have not heard of Tantalum. However,  like the Greek mythological figure it is named after, the world is developing a need for it which is not easily satisfied. The supply chain of Tantalum also poses some fundamental questions on the supply chain of the electron economy. Tantalum is in our cell phones, TVs and EVS due to its re...

Oil Supply & Demand in 2030 with Joel Couse   The energy transition will not be an easy path for a world built on hydrocarbons. The demand picture for the next decade is easier to divine than supply. To meet continued demand, more oil needs to be discovered and produced and more refineries are needed to transform it into the products we use. But who will invest? Who will  finance? And who will do...

The Case for Sustainable Aviation Fuel with Steve Mawer Growth in commercial air travel is unrelenting and so its carbon footprint - worrying airlines, passengers, and policy makers alike. Yet, air travel is the hardest to abate sector. Heavy batteries and decades long development cycles mean air travel won't be electrified any time soon. This is where SAF steps in. What is it? Where is it produce...

The Price of Time with Edward Chancellor Award-winning, financial journalist and historian Edward Chancellor join us to discuss interest rates and the impact on the commodities sector. Interest rates – the price of money and time – have been unnaturally low since the global financial crisis. This has led to a profound impact on finance and society. Global corporates found financial engineering mor...

In part 2, we examine how the retail fuel world will manage the next decade and the transition to EVs. Will the highly efficient supply systems built over the last two decades decay as investment (and maintenance) dries up? What will happen to prices? Who will trade and who will have the last gas pump in town? How will fuel retailers pivot to EVs? Where will roadside chargers be and will retailers...

Margin, Volatility & Supply in Retail Fuel with Doug Haugh: Part 1 Fuel is the key driver in the oil market. The story of how diesel and gasoline reach the pump, and who traded it on the way, has shifted dramatically over the past 30 years. Producers, Traders and retailers have ebbed up and down the value chain on the tides of margin, volatility and market efficiency. In that journey, trading team...

The ocean is the world’s largest battery, charged by the sun and the wind year round. Harnessing that energy for power generation has proved problematic for years. Yet, it would bring significant advantages over, and in combination with, the existing renewables suite; lowering intermittency and solving for issues of land use and scale. What is the status of the race to harness the waves? What are...

Oil & Gas Markets in 2023 with Paul Horsnell In this episode we are joined by Paul Horsnell, Global Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered, to review the major events that impacts oil and gas markets, as well as broader commodities, in 2022 and what major themes and learnings we can take into 2023. 2022 was an extraordinary year for the commodities sector with organizations struggling...

The Fate of Rome: climate, disease and the end of an empire with Kyle Harper (Christmas Special)    The Roman Period affords us one of the most documented and detailed histories of an ancient civilization. Yet since Edward Gibbon, its decline and fall remains hotly debated. However, over the last couple of decades we have complemented the written evidence with a wealth of climate and disease resea...

Insects & Commodities with Charlie Drew Insects are fundamental to the commodities world. As pollinators, they are crucial to the agri sector and food production. Increasingly, they are being used to recycle trash and farmed to provide protein for aquaculture, animal husbandry and even humans. However, these very alien creatures also show us a way to think very differently too – generating a colle...

Climate Change is the dominant investment theme of the next 30 years. To decarbonize the planet while managing and mitigating the risks of a more volatile climate will require trillions of dollars, creating immense opportunities and risks for investors. Our guest is Bruce Usher, author of the recently published book “Investing in the Era of Climate Change’ – a clear-eyed handbook on the investing...

The European Energy Crisis is viewed through the lens of a gas supply crisis, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While true, it is as much a product of a European nuclear energy crisis, centered on France. A crisis that is both acute but also forecast to be chronic. And yet, nuclear power is still hailed as the solution to this same crisis and energy transition in general. All the while,...

Following the recent LME week and COP27, we are checking in on the metals market. In particular, Copper, Aluminum and Steel. All these metals face the twin forces of energy transition & sustainability alongside a global market destabilized by COVID, trade wars and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What have been the major trends in these metals in 2022 and what is the outlook for 2023? How will each o...

Titanium is an engineer’s dream. Lighter than steel yet stronger than aluminum and extraordinarily corrosion resistant, titanium can help facilitate the clean energy transition—from EVs to wind turbines. Yet ittypicallyremains the preserve of space programs and Swiss watches. The current process for manufacturing titanium is expensive, complex, toxic and highly carbon intensive. Additionally, like...

Gas stations have played a pivotal role in civil infrastructure for over a century. The pump has served as a proxy for a country’s development status and a polity’s health. Over time its role has developed. As fuel margins tightened, companies reimagined themselves as roadside retailers. Others have backward integrated into supply and trading firms. However, what does the energy transition hold fo...

LNG now drives natural gas prices in Europe. After decades of this only being the case in Asian markets, LNG could shortly price markets worldwide. How did we get here in terms of assets, players and politics? Will this remain in place throughout the energy transition? What does it mean for producers like the US?  What does it mean for Natural Gas traders and who stands to benefit? Our guest is Ta...

What is happening to the Super-Cycle? The thesis is redistributive policies, energy transition and deglobalization have dramatically constrained supply while ballooning demand. Arguably, all conditions have tightened exacerbated by conflict, energy subsidies and a worsening emissions outlook. So why have commodities fallen off the Spring highs? Is this a pause before prices inexorably march upward...

In this episode, we take a look at the Meat Industry and the ag and animal nutrition sector that underpins it. The sector faces unprecedented challenges. Producers are working to meet the demands of a growing population while adapting to long term trends such as changing consumer expectations, in addition to innovating to address the challenges presented by climate change. At the same time, they f...

The past decade has seen a vibrant investment market centered on food and agri technology, in part driven by the twin imperatives of sustainability and resilience in a changing climate and in response to changing consumer demands.  Some returns have been atmospheric such as alternative protein first movers like Beyond Meat. Large agri and food houses have been keen investors and buyers as they res...

The Lithium-Ion battery is central to energy transition. However, the key components within it come with a heavy environmental toll and are captive in an opaque supply chain dominated by a handful of Chinese companies. Western OEMs are now scrambling to meet demand for batteries while navigating these trade-offs. Governments are reacting to how the core components – Nickel, Lithium, Cobalt and Cop...

A hundred or more years ago, the oil business was vertically integrated and companies, often back by governmental support, scrambled to secure untapped reserves. So it is with Lithium at the dawn of the battery age. The parallels do not stop there as this episode uncovers. Access to Lithium is becoming the crucial bottleneck for battery companies, OEMs and countries alike – and a combination of pr...

Throughout history Solar flares have swept the earth, creating nothing more than a planet wide lightshow for the human race. However, in the digital age, we are uniquely vulnerable.  Even relatively weak events can destroy our uniquely vulnerable power grids – leaving whole regions in blackout for months, even years. Powerful events, like the 1859 Carrington Event, could destroy civilization as we...

Batteries are now at the center of geopolitical competition. Lithium extraction and processing is not going to meet forecasted demand. All the mineral components of batteries have environmental impacts, especially cobalt and graphite. It’s against this backdrop that commodity traders are investing in battery recycling. Can and how are batteries recycled? What are the technical, regulatory  and mar...