The HC Commodities Podcast

A lot has changed in the last three years when it comes to investing in the energy transition. Inflation and rising rates have altered economics, the tools and the returns expected. ESG is no longer the all-conquering paradigm sweeping all theses before it. The complexity of delivering the transition (and the trade offs) are better understood. Western governments are far more focused on securing t...

  The EU has set ambitious goals to decarbonize, especially in transportation, accelerated by the geopolitical necessity to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons. However, the minerals and even technological know-how for the electron economy especially, sits largely outside the region. The also face stiff competition for both, especially from the US - supercharged by the IRA. How is Europe planning to c...

Food inflation is persistent globally, even after the underlying commodity prices have dropped. What is going on? Will food prices normalize and if so when? Has something structural happened? And what is the outlook for the softs and grains markets in a turbulent world both in trade and weather. Is China demand growing and what does El Niño mean for crops? What does high food prices mean for globa...

On June 1st, in front of a live audience in London, we recorded a special live podcast to celebrate the launch of Adi Imsirovic's new book: Brent Crude Oil - the genesis and development of the world's most important benchmark. The panel consisted of some of the leading figures in the past and current development and trading of Brent. What is Brent? Why is it so important? And what does the inclusi...

Commercial Real Estate, Rates & Renewables with Eugene McGrane   The Commercial Real Estate market is in trouble. High interests rates & low occupancy are stressing central business districts across the world. Meeting the demands of the energy transition is an added challenge. Retooling our energy infrastructure requires land for new grid infrastructure – often in urban coastal areas looking to im...

Coal Trading with Hayn Park   Coal demand reached an all-time peak in 2022. Prices reached levels not seen for over a decade. China is permitting two new coal fired power plants a week and Germany is burning lignite to meet its power demand. Traders reaped huge rewards trying to connect a fragile, disrupted, supply chain. As the world strives for the energy transition, removing coal from our power...

In late April, we brought together a panel of leading thinkers and executives from across the sector to discuss the impacts of rising interest rates on commodities in front of a live audience in New York City. This inaugural Live HC Insider Podcast event was hosted by HC Group and Brown Brothers Harriman. Where are rates headed? What does it mean for prices, traders, producers, investment and the...

Commodities in a Deglobalizing World with Jeremy Shapiro   Commodities have been at the heart of globalization. Traders roamed freely and commodities priced to the marginal cost of production. Since the mid-2010s that started to change politics moved toward populism and nationalism and geopolitical competition heated it. Today, traders have to navigate a sanction minefield and the weaponization of...

Commodity Indexes with Tim Kramer,  JC Kneale and Preston Peacock:   Commodity indexes have grown in popularity among institutional and private investors, tracking the prices of a diversified basket of commodities to generate returns and hedge inflation, with current allocations totaling over $1.6 trillion in assets. Despite their acceptance, many investors are unsure of how these complex indexes...

Description  A View From the Top with Saad Rahim   In this episode, Saad Rahim, Chief Economist of Trafigura, the global commodity trading house, joins us to give an overview on the current state of the commodities markets. China is open for business. OPEC is cutting production. Is Oil poised for a big rise? Are cyclical markets over...replaced by a more volatile, less efficient, price-spiking and...

Powering Heavy Industry with Manoli Yannaghas Heavy industry accounts for one third of power consumption. Many leading industrials and miners have ambitious targets to reach net zero. While renewables deployment capture headlines, what about efficiency? What about demand management? In this episode we dive into how new technologies can help companies understand their power consumption and make sig...

How long will the energy transition take? The challenges are underestimated. Energy consumption will continue to expand as emerging economies develop, and as new classes of technologies emerge (not least AI where its inherent power consumption is an order of magnitude more than conventional computing). The switch from fuels that are mainly liquids and gases to hardware-intensive technologies like...

  Hedge Funds & Commodities with Tor Svelland   In this episode, we return to hedge funds and their role in commodities for investors, market participants and talent. Why is money returning to hedge funds with commodities focus or exposure? What does it take to succeed in the volatile sector? What tools and experience do hedge fund traders need? And is there anything structural that means this tim...

The Pathways to Decarbonize Transportation with Michael Barnard   In this episode, we take the long view of decarbonizing transportation. How will cars, trucks, trains and planes move in 2050? Which technologies will win out and why for each of these modes? Which countries and companies will lead these wholesale revolutions and which bets look safest? What are the pathways available? What criteria...

In this special episode, I provide notes, quotes and my take away from the FT Commodities Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland. Starting the day Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS, the conference was held against a backdrop of financial turmoil and geopolitical fractures. What do the leaders of the commodities sector see as the major opportunities and challenges, after a year of record profits and the...

  Decarbonization is crucial to tackling climate change. Yet, human history has been a story of increasing energy consumption and hydrocarbons unleashed global development. Today, hope and investment is pinned on a suite of alternatives, especially wind and solar. The economics work. However, do the energetics? Our guest has spent a decade looking at the energy return on investment (EROI) and his...

Edward Chancellor, financial historian and journalist, returns in this special update to discuss the unfurling banking crisis. We discuss the common thread across the financial stresses around the world is rising interest rates to tackle inflation. Should central banks be intervening? What has the Fed done with SVB? Are the events with Credit Suisse and the US banks the start of a broader financia...

  Paul Posoli was at the forefront of energy trading through a 20 year career. In this episode, we follow Paul’s story has he joins Enron, builds a trading desk for a merchant and an investment bank, mapping through his career the peaks and valleys this sector has had. At the heart of that journey is Paul focus on people and talent. And it is that focus that led Paul to join Cristo Rey, a non-prof...

On March 8th 2022, Nickel prices spiked 100% to $100,000 a tonne in a matter of hours, triggering billions of dollars in margin calls and threatening the very existence of the exchange. The LME took the unprecedented, and controversial, step of cancelling all trades made that day. A decision which enraged some but saved the exchange and the shorts, creating a cascade of legal battles continuing to...

In 1993, Metallgesellschaft, the German Global Industrial conglomerate lost $1.3bln in oil derivatives trading through its US subsidiary MGRM. The details leading up to their implosion and the subsequent actions taken by their CEO, trading counterparties and their lending banks have been hotly debated by academia, business school students and their contemporaries in the markets ever since. In this...

Tantalum… a story of insatiable demand with Hadley Natus You probably have not heard of Tantalum. However,  like the Greek mythological figure it is named after, the world is developing a need for it which is not easily satisfied. The supply chain of Tantalum also poses some fundamental questions on the supply chain of the electron economy. Tantalum is in our cell phones, TVs and EVS due to its re...

Oil Supply & Demand in 2030 with Joel Couse   The energy transition will not be an easy path for a world built on hydrocarbons. The demand picture for the next decade is easier to divine than supply. To meet continued demand, more oil needs to be discovered and produced and more refineries are needed to transform it into the products we use. But who will invest? Who will  finance? And who will do...

The Case for Sustainable Aviation Fuel with Steve Mawer Growth in commercial air travel is unrelenting and so its carbon footprint - worrying airlines, passengers, and policy makers alike. Yet, air travel is the hardest to abate sector. Heavy batteries and decades long development cycles mean air travel won't be electrified any time soon. This is where SAF steps in. What is it? Where is it produce...

The Price of Time with Edward Chancellor Award-winning, financial journalist and historian Edward Chancellor join us to discuss interest rates and the impact on the commodities sector. Interest rates – the price of money and time – have been unnaturally low since the global financial crisis. This has led to a profound impact on finance and society. Global corporates found financial engineering mor...

In part 2, we examine how the retail fuel world will manage the next decade and the transition to EVs. Will the highly efficient supply systems built over the last two decades decay as investment (and maintenance) dries up? What will happen to prices? Who will trade and who will have the last gas pump in town? How will fuel retailers pivot to EVs? Where will roadside chargers be and will retailers...