The HC Commodities Podcast

May you live in interesting times - as the proverb goes. Will those times continue? On October 16th, at the Yale Club in New York City, we held our latest Live Event hosted by ITFA with additional sponsorship from Brown Brothers Harriman, The Mercury Group, Goba Capital and HC Group. The commodities sector has seen unprecedented volatility. What has that meant for the sector’s ecosystem? How has i...

In mid -November, in Azerbaijan at COP29, momentous decisions could be made that would advance the carbon markets globally. What are they and what are the chances of that happening and what is the state of the carbon market today? Our guest is Nick Marshall, co -founder of TASC, a project developer focused on channeling funds into carbon reduction projects around the world.   For related content a...

Commodities sit at the heart of global trade and as such are at the center of the rise of protectionism. After a long period of globalization and ever freer trade, there is a perceptible and growing shift back to mercantilism and protectionism. This is driven by great-power competition with the energy transition being a key driver. Tariffs, sanctions and direct market intervention are ever more co...

Utility scale batteries are proliferating across Western power grids, particularly in the US. And far more are set to come. These batteries offer the ability to manage grids, especially with the influx of renewables, or make economic returns on trading around them. Yet, their very presence is changing the dynamics of power markets. What are these batteries, where are they placed and who owns them?...

Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered an avalanche of economics sanctions by the West. What followed was an undeniably world-changing financial experiment that risked throwing the world into a devastating recession, testing the very limits of economic warfare and Western cohesion. Commodities sit at the heart of this story with profound ramifications for the global sec...

Over the next two years, the US is set to export some 12bcf/d extra of LNG. What does this mean for the US market? Where will it go? And can supply keep up? Will there be sufficient demand in Europe? And what does this mean for traders - is a global footprint now a must?  Are the gas markets entering a new truly globalized era where US supply sets the price? All that and more is discussed in this...

Shale Oil & Gas has turned the US into an energy power house over the last 15 years. Will it disappear as quickly as it arrived or will it set to US apart for years to come? Within its short life, it has evolved quickly and our guest Matthew Bernstein now characterizes it as Shale 4.0. What were the previous iterations in participants, economics and output and what does the future hold? Matthew  B...

A commodity close to many of our hearts, but how does it end up in our mugs? Where is it grown, how is it processed and who trades it? How do the derivative contracts work and what might the future hold as climate, geopolitics and consumer tastes evolve? Our guest is Charlie Stephens, President of Amarella Café, an independent specialty coffee trader in the Americas. Still in his twenties, Charlie...

Is the commodities world lagging behind in AI adoption? And if so, how should the sector’s leadership think about applications and use? What even is it and how is it being used by other sectors? Our guest is Seth Dobrin, CEO of QuantmA1, an AI consultancy and General Partner at 1Infinity Ventures, a VC fund. Seth was former Global Chief AI Officer at IBM and Head of Digital Strategies at Monsanto....

As we head toward the end of the year and into 2025 where are oil prices headed? In this episode we recap the major events and decisions since COVID and the key drivers of oil prices. Then we turn to the outlook for the next two years. What is the supply and demand picture? What could OPEC’s upcoming decision mean – could a new price war start? And what are the potential disrupters in a more volat...

Brazil has been steadily deregulating its power market over the last two decades. This combined with one of the largest share of renewables in the generation mix of any advanced economy, alongside hydrocarbon production in the ‘Pre-salt’ off the coast, has made it a hugely dynamic market with lots of opportunity for participants, both domestic and international. What is Brazil’s generation mix and...

Are we seeing a regime change in Europeangas and power markets? Is Europe now entering a period of structurally lower energy prices and economic advantage as its decades long investment in renewables starts to pay off? Will other countries have to go through this journey? What does this mean for power trading opportunities? As we approach winter, is the European Energy Crisis in the rearview mirro...

The UN predicts global population will peak sometime in 2080s around 10 billion people. Companies, countries (think global social security schemes) and the commodities sector predicates forecasts on these assumptions. Yet, there is a growing body of evidence that these assumptions are far too optimistic and that not only will global population peak earlier but will subsequently decline much more r...

Global regulators are narrowing their focus on the commodities sector and billions of dollars have been paid in fines. The world has become both more transparent and more risky in the wake of deglobalization, sanctions and the energy transition bringing its increased public scrutiny. The risks are enormous both the companies and individuals. And as such, compliance is an ever more important topic....

show. Jonathan’s new book - Commodity Professionals: The people behind the trade – is a collection of interviews spanning all the professions that create the commodity supply chains. How have these roles evolved in a more volatile world? How are the trading houses fairing since we last caught up with Jonathan? For more on HC Group visit: www.hcgroup.global For related content and to find out more...

The energy transition is complex. That complexity tends to be papered over with simplifications and beliefs, even myths, both within the sector and the broader public on both sides of the debate. Yet, to make the right investments and decisions as companies and societies, it requires careful analysis and ultimately managing the inherent trade-offs. In this episode, we zoom in on the reality of the...

Is the commodity super cycle, long heralded, a mirage? Or, super charged by a capex cycle,  are we just at the start? What is the state of the commodity investment cycle? Why and how has geopolitics and dollar weaponization changed the landscape? If there is a global run up in prices will energy keep pace with metals? What does all this mean for the trading sector and investors? Returning to the H...

Data is the new the economic engine of the world. Globally, data centers are proliferating bringing their huge demand for energy – especially clean energy delivered reliably. Markets, policy and regulation are still adapting, often too slowly, to the changing energy mix and decarbonization demand. Could data centers be the engines of change to bring our power grids into a renewable ready world? Co...

In this episode we explore commodities’ role in asset management and portfolio construction? Why should asset managers and investors seek exposure to commodities within their portfolios? What are their historical long-term performance as part of a broader mix of equities and debt? Indeed, are institutional investors currently underweighted, especially as we enter a period of higher inflation and i...

Hedging is the basic tool of the commodity trader. Yet, outside that community it is little taught, little understood and underutilized – especially as raw material prices are becoming more volatile in an age of disruption. What is hedging? What are the costs and benefits and why is it not more exploited up and down the value chain. Our guest is Samuel Basi, author of the new book “Perfectly Hedge...

In commodities, the lowest cost producer or shipper is king. This in turn drives siting assets, determined by human factors such as cost, legal and tax regimes and geographic factors like proximity to rivers, coasts, production and markets. However, today the world is becoming more volatile both in weather events and in policy. And in fact locations a few miles apart can have very different risk p...

In this episode, our guest argues that not only is the energy transition happening, it’s happening faster and more profoundly that you can imagine…and it’s being led by China. The ‘age of renewables’ will be very different than the ‘age of carbon’ and the same forecasting assumptions do not apply. The energy transition is being driven by technology, economics, geo-strategy and, of-course, necessit...

In a deglobalizing and volatile world, sanctions can upend commodity markets overnight. Commodities underpin global trade and are often themselves direct targets of sanctions or swept up in restrictions imposed on trade infrastructure, such as finance and shipping. In this episode, we do a deep dive on the suite of Russian sanctions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine. How do sanctions work? How...

In this episode, we are diving into the Japanese power market, which by virtue of its size, generation mix and recent liberalization, is fast becoming one of the most active power markets in the world, attracting a host of domestic and international energy merchants. What is the regulation that underpins the market? How does it function and who are the participants? Who is, and where do you get, t...

Western Governments have enacted a slew of policies to support energy security and its transition to a greener future. These policies can radically shift the economic landscape for the commodity sector participants. However, the reality of implementing these policies, from the power lines needed to the mines for critical metals, requires navigating byzantine levels of planning and approval. What d...