The Grumpy Strategists

The Grump Strategists move back into their renovated bunker deep in the Brindabellas to assess the finely-managed Albanese-Trump meeting. Full marks to PM Albanese & Ambassador Rudd for stage managing & delivering the meeting. The critical minerals deal has been celebrated as historic. It was a delightfully cheap distraction from tricky questions about Australian defence spending. But the...

Marcus is back from Australia's croc-filled Outback. He catches up with Michael on global events: America's end to a Baltic states security initiative and the Trump Administrations' prep work for a Xi-Trump meeting - a Tik Tok half deal & pauses to a $400m US military aid package for Taiwan. They go Premier Allan's extraordinary connection of Victoria to Beijing's education system, and look in...

In Episode 49, Marcus and Michael go over the lessons for Australia from Europe's approach to dealing with an unreliable US over the war in Ukraine. They discuss the now disturbing centralisation of authority in the single person of the President in the US, and fly a new policy kite for growing the alliance in a time of Trump - reinventing US extended deterrence by requesting deployment of the US...

Ukrainian Ambassador Vasyl Myroshnychenko speaks with a grumpy strategist about his path from business to diplomacy, & the surreal experience of families - including his - like fighting in the Russian military during WW2 & now fighting against Russian invaders in their homeland. They cover connections between the war & our part of the world - North Korea and China's direct support to R...

Before Dr Hellyer jets off to Samoa, the Grumpy Strategists go Grand - Australian grand strategy looked at through its two enduring pillars of: 1. economic prosperity by mainlining into China's economy, and 2. a strategic pillar that relies on American security. Great stuff for the last 4 decades of 'rules based global order'ing, not so great for the competitive power-based world we're in now. We'...

The Grumpy Strategists drill into the facts behind Australian Govt announcements on drones to find disappointment: celebrating $16.7m on counter drone systems while spending $11m per day on AUKUS puts things into perspective, as does the fact Australia had roughly 700 drones in 2024 while the Russians fire 800 a night at Ukraine. They try to bridge the huge gap between Aust-UK AUKUS announcements...

One Grumpy Strategist talks with Beaten Zone Ventures boss Steve Baxter. They set out Steve's journey from the Army to business success in the tech world, to now running an outfit all about investing in smart Australian companies making the best defence tech on the planet - for everyone but Australia....Changing that could be as simple - but big - as adopting the Ukrainian military's almost gamifi...

The Grumpies go over an Audit report revealing the comprehensive, systemic failures of Defence, the Navy and its contractors to maintain and operate the Navy's two biggest ships. The obvious question is how can the Navy be capable 'stewards' operating and maintaining nuclear powered subs? But there's the good news that 8 years of continuous naval shipbuilding have delivered one, mostly harmless, p...

With the UK Eurovision entry "What the Hell Just Happpppppened??" fitting Australia's reaction to the Trump AUKUS review, Marcus and Michael discuss the two Oz views: "PANIC it's over!!!!" & 'There's nothing to see, IT'S ALL PERFECTLY NATURAL" bunch - and set out why both are wrong. Politics, security, industrial capacity & cash are all at work here. This review won't be the last, particul...

Back from teaming with Dennis Rodman to help Kim Jong Un fix his naval troubles, the Grumpies get into myth busting on defence spending & on drones. They examine 6 common Myth Takes on defence spending & capability - a common feature is they all excuse inaction. Similar manoeuvres are used by those who still insist Australia's sleepy response to drone warfare is masterful & strategic....

Taiwan's representative in Australia, Douglas Hsu, talks with a Grumpy Strategist about the World Health Assembly, now as a time to reinforce multilateral & international organisations, and paths to reverse Beijing's attempts to isolate & intimidate Taiwan. They do something unusual: look at the texts that say what the UN actually said about recognition of the PRC (no mention of Taiwan) an...

Marcus and Michael set out fast moving developments in military use of drones. they're happening not just in Ukraine, but in Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Singapore and the UK (just not in Australia). Then it's a dive into the Acting US Navy head's startling view that a US airstrike into Somalia was the biggliest in history. Then the Grumpies look at the investigation into the fatal Taipan helicopte...

The Grumpy Strategists road test Incat's latest product, the 130m electric ship "China Zorrilla", while assessing the whiplash shifts in American engagement with the Middle East. They contrast the ambitious 'Golden Dome' homeland defence project announced by Pres Trump with its lowballed price tag and courageously aspirational delivery date of 2029 with the Pentagon's troubled ICBM renewal program...

Marcus beams in from the Vatican after running the numbers for Pope Bob, while Michael fights his way through the clouds of smug spilling from the re-elected Labor government and a deeply relieved, complacent Defence bureaucracy. It turns out that the defeated Liberal-National coalition parties had a campaigning gift - unfortunately, it was in making Mr Albanese's performance look good. The Grumpi...

Marcus and Michael go through the -sparse - highlights of Australia's election campaign from a defence perspective - the Coalition's policy release has shifted the defence permafrost on funding and capabilities, and added a note of required urgency. But polls show a collapse in Australians seeing the US as a reliable ally. They also show reluctance to raise defence spending. Meanwhile, in DC the D...

This is the audio only version of the Grumpies' first video podcast. The full version is available on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le9t8gRT380

The Grumpy Strategists visit Trump tariffs' Ground Zero on Heard Island. While President Trump's shifting global moves are creating uncertainty about working with America, the good news is that Australian strategists & planners must have got everything about our world now right years ago, judging by the unchanging nature of Defence plans & budgets since the 2016 White Paper. The Grumpies e...

Grumpy Strategist Marcus Hellyer talks with co-founder Peter Jennings in SAA's secure bunker deep in the Brindabella ranges. They discuss the puzzle of the Canberra consensus that Australia is in a much more dangerous world, sitting alongside the fact that Australia's government and its security agencies are then taking no useful steps to strengthen our security. Instead, Australia is stuck with a...

Marcus and Michael explore the Government's confused position on disaster relief and the military. They assess the nuances in wombat-based pushback on US policies & set out the merits of the Government's emerging masterplan for tariff immunity. They outline various 'Plan B's for dealing with an unreliable or a more demanding America, canvass F-35 kill switches and the likely path for Defence i...

Like Run DMC & Aerosmith's "Walk This Way" collaboration, except on.....defence stuff....Marcus & Michael join the AustDefMagazine crew to assess Defence officials' patient explanations of why everything they touch takes 10 years, minimum. Marcus reveals his previous career in standover work & organised crime as we assess Trump 2.0 6 weeks in. And we look at AUKUS' health and reason fo...

Recorded at the 2025 Australian Defence Magazine Congress, the Grumpies look at the world & ask so what? Oz is facing a national crisis due to events in the US, with Russia & Europe, & given disturbing scenarios for next steps here in the Indo Pacific. Damage to fundamental underpinnings of the decades long AUKUS project & the core of the Oz-US alliance are serious enough that alte...

The Grumpy Strategists apply science to the Australian government's early engagement with the Trump Administration. Insights from prey species threatened by a predator help. They look at Japan's approach to hedging against US risks and how this connects to the new frigate program & Australia. The episode ends going through the numbers on US Navy missile use in the Red Sea, and celebrating the...

Marcus and Michael are back after a luxurious break to assess what Joe Biden ever did for us, what Trump 2.0 looks like as the rollercoaster starts, and what the unsleeping Australian Govt elves got up to over the Christmas period (these elves seem to be Bad Santa's little helpers). & we cover the Varghese review's approach to anyone providing alternative ideas to Canberra's Public Service man...

In Episode 30, Marcus and Michael look at what the numbers in Defence's Annual Report tell us about Defence's 'fasttracked' work on missiles, helicopters & ships. The numbers show systemic underachievement, not the generational, transformational change we hear so often from ministers & officials. Parents would be very unhappy with this report on their Defence child. But Houthi progress is...

The Grumpy Strategists answer the call from Australia's Embassy in Washington. They search for meaning in Defence's new religious texts - the Strategic Review and Defence Strategy - amongst the snowstorm of other reviews, strategies & plans. The new Workforce Plan gets a makeover - it's now beige. A Senate Estimates satellite highlight gets airtime, while the Chief of Navy and Deputy Prime Min...