The Global Gambit

Summary   This conversation delves into the intricate relationship between energy geopolitics and conflict, particularly focusing on the Iran-Israel tensions and the implications for global oil markets. Anas Al-Hajji provides insights into the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait, the dynamics of oil pricing, and the roles of major players like the US and Russia in shaping energy po...

Ukraine’s frontline is holding, but the real battle may be behind closed doors. As peace talks falter, Russian forces regroup, and Western support for Kyiv begins to fray. In this episode, former UK Defence Attaché John Foreman joins me to unpack the fragile diplomacy, shifting battlefield tactics, and the deeper power struggles shaping the war’s next phase. We explore how Russia’s economy is adap...

In this episode l am rejoined by Ankit Panda as we delve into the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, particularly focusing on the recent military clashes and the implications of their nuclear doctrines. Ankit provides insights into the current crisis, comparing it to past conflicts and discussing the role of the United States in de-escalation efforts. The conversation also touches on...

In this podcast, I was joined by Candace Rondeaux to discuss her new book, Putin's Sledgehammer, on the rise and fall of Russia’s Wagner Group, particularly the aftermath of its 2023 mutiny. Candace explores the historical origins of the Wagner Group, its ties to Russia's mafia, and its key role in Russia's global operations. She delves into the evolution of the group under Prigozhin, highlighting...

Summary The conversation delves into the strategic significance of the Panama Canal amidst rising US-China tensions, exploring the implications of recent US military agreements and the Panamanian government's response to pressure from the Trump administration. Experts discuss the historical context of US-Panama relations, public sentiment in Panama, and the potential economic consequences of clima...

In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Mihaela Pappa discuss the evolving role of BRICS in the context of global politics, particularly in relation to US foreign policy under the Trump administration. They explore the implications of BRICS as a symbol of a multipolar world, its initiatives in development and health, and the challenges it faces in terms of internal dynamics and divergence among mem...

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Rohit Goel discuss the current state of the global economy, focusing on the impact of Donald Trump's presidency on economic policies, particularly regarding China and emerging markets. They explore the challenges facing China, the dynamics of U.S.-China relations, and the implications of de-dollarization. The discussion also touches on the potential f...

In this conversation, I am rejoined by Dmitri Alperovitch to delve into the latest of the Ukraine War, focusing on the diplomatic engagements between the US and Russia, the strategic decisions made by Ukraine, and implications of Trump's foreign policy. We discuss the limited leverage the US has in influencing both Russia and Ukraine, the challenges of negotiating peace, and the realities of a war...

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Chris Fenton discuss the emergence of DeepSeek, an AI technology developed in China, and its implications for US-China relations, national security, and the influence of technology on global narratives. They explore the role of open-source technology, the impact of platforms like TikTok, and the complexities of Trump's foreign policy towards China. Th...

In this episode, I react to and explain the implications of Trump's tariffs from both an economic and geopolitical perspective. I highlight the historical context of tariffs, their intended purpose, and the potential consequences for international relations and the US economy. I also argue that while tariffs may seem beneficial in the short term, they could lead to significant long-term challenges...

Welcome to the Global Gambit 2025 - after some minor time off, we're back with more conversations and content, including more from me. This time starting with the 5 biggest geopolitical risks and themes in 2025! This time Pyotr discusses the major geopolitical risks and themes that could shape 2025, including the implications of Donald Trump's return to power, the ongoing US-China strategic compet...

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Ankit Panda, about the deepening political crisis in South Korea and its wider regional implications. They discuss the impeachment proceedings against President Yoon Suk-yeol, the potential rise of progressive opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, and the resilience of South Korea’s democratic institutions. The conversation also explores North Kore...

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Wladimir van Wilgenburg, journalist at the Kurdish Chronicle, about the dramatic collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the shifting power dynamics across the region. They discuss the rapid advances by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and other rebel groups, the fall of key cities including Aleppo, Homs, and Hama, and the surprising absence of interve...

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Marlene Laruelle about the ideological foundations of Vladimir Putin’s regime and Russia’s evolving identity under his leadership. They discuss the tension between restoring the Soviet Union versus the Russian Empire, the influence of strongman politics, and how Russia’s future may unfold amid growing friction with NATO and shifting U.S. leade...

In this conversation, Pyotr is joined by (ret) Colonel Bob Hamilton and now Head of Eurasia Research at FPRI to discuss the current situation in Ukraine, focusing on Zelensky's victory plan, public sentiment regarding the war, military strategies, and the implications of foreign support. We explore the complexities of defining victory, the role of NATO, and the technological adaptations in warfare...

Summary In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Richard Gowan, UN Director at the International Crisis Group, about the growing challenges facing the United Nations and the leadership of Secretary-General António Guterres. They discuss the contrasting messages delivered by world leaders at the UN General Assembly, including those from President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, and explor...

Pyotr is joined by the esteemed Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London. We focus on the war in Ukraine and the conditions for a negotiated settlement and the challenges in reaching any such agreement. We debate motivations behind Putin's actions and the implications for the use of military force in international relations including role of NATO and the conc...

Cyprus marked the 50th anniversary of Turkey's invasion to the north of the island on July 20th 1974. Since Cyprus and the Cypriot people have remained divided by a United Nations buffer zone to prevent further conflict, including the only remaining split capital city Nicosia. Despite diplomatic efforts between Cyprus, Greece, Turkey and even the UK that controls too strategic military bases, pros...

Israel and Hezbollah are on the brink of full-scale as the President Benjamin Netanyahu seriously considers sending the IDF into Lebanon. However, Hezbollah is not Hamas, being far more powerful and the flagship proxy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which could threaten escalating the war across the Middle East as the Ayatollah's don't want to lose such a military and strategic asset. This time l...

China thinks 'its their historical right to be' the world's foremost power, and the US 'doesn't have a moment to waste' in adequately preparing or responding to the flashpoint that could bring the 21st centuries largest powers to war: War over Taiwan. We truly are in a Cold War II and its time we stop kidding ourselves. That's according to Dmitri Alperovitch - Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of Silve...

Thanks to all who support my work on Patreon - you make this possible If you'd like bonus content, your own questions put to guests, and appreciate my efforts to bring diverse, nuanced conversations consider joining as a patron too or buying me a one-off coffee. Due to being MIA for so long - here is another episode! Normal service of the show will resume hereon-out, with 2 episodes a month. If yo...

Israel and Iran’s clashes over April 2024 has left the Middle East in state of permacrisis. While immediate threat of war escalation seems to have subsided, the long term geopolitical implications are unprecedented. Many consider this to be a new reality for the region and how we interpret developments. To explain why, Bilal Saab - professor at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service & Dr Sanam...

Since Oct 7th the world has been rocked by the Israel-Hamas War. That has caused a series if escalations, including the ongoing Houthi disruptions to maritime security and global commercial shipping. Its so severe, the US and UK have initiated airstrikes in Yemen, but has made little difference and if anything only emboldens the Houthis more and who say they wont stop until Israel ceases its opera...

South Asia - or the Indian subcontinent to others - is going through a concentrated set of shifts. Three of the main players - Bangladesh, Pakistan and India, all have major elections next year with each proposing potentially different directions - but which? Returning guest, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Program at the Wilson Centre sat down with me to outline, the challenges and d...

The United Nations Climate Change Conference - known to most as COP - and in this case, COP28, is the highest-level of international engagement and gathering to find collective solutions to the globe's greatest collective challenge. Yet, COPs have poor reputations, with little tangible products or outcomes occurring - other than an agreement of inaction. But, as l spoke to Nazanine Moshiri - senio...