The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (16 Sept 2025) Theme: USD softer into FOMC; crude and gold supported; US–China trade talks continue; Middle East and Eastern Europe remain flashpoints. FX & Central Banks USD extends yesterday’s downside; DXY under pressure ahead of US Retail Sales and start of FOMC two-day meeting. Fed Gov. Cook confirmed to attend FOMC after appeals court ruling; Senat...

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (15 Sept 2025) Theme: FX steady into a central-bank-heavy week; crude bid on Russia sanction talk; US–China trade/tech tensions intensify; multiple flashpoints on the geopolitical tape. FX & Policy USD steady ahead of FOMC mid-week; ~25bp cut widely expected; tone/dots key for FX path. ECB officials (Kocher, Nagel) signal cuts are done or nearly done; eu...

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (15 Sept 2025) Intro: Today’s episode covers key developments across FX, commodities, global trade, and geopolitics that are shaping markets as we start the week. FX & Central Banks Dollar steady into a big central-bank week, with the FOMC decision Wednesday the main event. ECB tone hawkish: Nagel and Kocher signal rate cuts are done or nearly done; euro...

📌 Week Ahead Market & News Briefing – Short Notes Fed Decision (Main Event): 25bp cut to 4.00–4.25% expected. Dot plot & Chair Powell’s tone key for FX. Fewer cuts than priced = USD bullish; deeper easing = USD bearish. USD/JPY Focus: BoJ expected to hold at 0.50% (95% probability). Fed outcome likely drives pair’s direction this week. Bank of Canada: CPI Tuesday, rate decision Wednesday...

Daily US Opening News – Show Notes (12th September 2025) Welcome to today’s market and news briefing — a focused look at FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics as we move into the US session. FX & Currency Markets The US dollar is recovering after Thursday’s losses, with the DXY near session highs ahead of University of Michigan sentiment data. EUR/USD is steady after a hawkish ECB tone, with...

Daily European Opening News – Show Notes (12th September 2025) Welcome to today’s current market and news briefing — your focused look at FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics as Europe kicks off the trading day. FX & Currency Markets The US dollar is attempting to steady after a sharp drop triggered by higher-than-expected jobless claims, which led markets to price in 71bps of Fed rate cuts...

Show Notes – Daily Market & News Briefing (11 September 2025) FX: DXY firm near 98 ahead of August US CPI; consensus sees 0.3% core M/M. EUR/USD below 1.17, focus on ECB decision (expected hold at 2%). USD/JPY near 148.00 as political risk lingers, BoJ outlook in focus. GBP/USD holding above 1.35; UK macro drivers light. Antipodeans marginally softer; PBoC sets stronger-than-expected USD/CNY f...

Show Notes – European Opening Briefing (11 Sept 2025) Trade & Tariffs: EU unlikely to impose sweeping tariffs on India or China despite US pressure. South Korea expects rational conclusion to US trade talks; industry minister traveling to US for follow-up negotiations. President Trump halted deportation of Korean battery plant workers to allow training of Americans. Mexico raising tariffs on l...

Show Notes – Daily US Opening Briefing (10 Sept 2025) Poland Airspace Incident: Russian drones repeatedly violated Polish airspace during attacks on Ukraine; Warsaw and Rzeszow airports closed. PM Tusk invoked NATO Article 4 consultations but said Poland is not in a state of war. NATO’s North Atlantic Council meets today to discuss response. US Tariff Push: President Trump urged the EU to impose 1...

Daily European Opening Briefing – September 10, 2025 : Geopolitics Poland reports unprecedented Russian drone incursions into its airspace during attacks on Ukraine; drones shot down, airports temporarily closed. France: President Macron appoints Sebastien Lecornu as new Prime Minister after Bayrou’s failed confidence vote. Middle East: Israel struck Hamas officials in Qatar; Doha condemns strike...

Show Notes – Daily US Opening News (September 9, 2025) FX USD softer ahead of key inflation data; markets remain focused on Friday’s weak NFP. EUR steady despite French PM Bayrou’s confidence vote defeat; Macron to appoint a new PM soon. GBP holds near 1.35, with focus on upcoming UK GDP data. JPY surged after BoJ sources suggested rate hikes are still possible this year, with some officials point...

Show Notes – Daily Briefing (Sept 9, 2025) FX USD steady ahead of BLS revisions, PPI, CPI later this week. EUR firmer despite Bayrou’s failed confidence vote; Macron to name new PM. JPY weak below 148 after Ishiba’s resignation; GDP revision supported sentiment. GBP holding 1.35, limited catalysts until UK GDP. AUD & NZD firmer on CNY fix, gains capped by weak Aussie consumer data. Trade &...

Show Notes – Daily US Opening Briefing (8 Sept 2025) FX USD softer post-weak NFP; Fed cut fully priced for Sept 17. EUR steady ahead of French PM Bayrou’s confidence vote, where defeat is expected. JPY weaker above 148 after PM Ishiba resigns, though stronger Q2 GDP limits downside. GBP flat near 1.35 with little data until UK GDP Friday. AUD/NZD firmer in Europe despite weak China trade data. PBo...

Show Notes – Daily European Opening Briefing (8 Sept 2025) FX: USD steady after weak NFP; markets fully price a September Fed cut. EUR flat ahead of France’s no-confidence vote. GBP steady near 1.35, UK GDP due Friday. JPY weaker above 148 after PM Ishiba’s resignation despite stronger Q2 GDP. AUD/NZD muted after soft Chinese trade data. PBoC fixes USD/CNY at 7.1029, signals stability. Trade &...

Episode Title: Week-Ahead Briefing — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics Episode Summary: A crisp look at what could move markets this week: US CPI and BLS jobs revisions for the dollar, the ECB’s projections for the euro, OPEC+ signals for crude, and a busy geopolitical slate from the UN General Assembly to France’s no-confidence vote, plus fresh US–Japan trade measures and looming US chip t...

Show Notes – Daily US Opening Briefing (Sept 5, 2025) Tariffs & Trade Trump to impose “substantial” chip tariffs soon; Apple and others spared. US to renegotiate North American trade deal with Canada and Mexico. US–Japan trade deal implemented: 15% baseline tariff on most imports, 75% increase in US rice purchases, USD 550bn investment package. Japan says auto tariff reductions take effect wit...

Show Notes – Daily European Opening Briefing (Sept 5, 2025) Tariffs & Trade Trump to impose “fairly substantial” chip tariffs soon; Apple and other major US tech firms spared. US–Japan trade deal formally implemented: 15% tariff baseline on most Japanese imports, 75% increase in US rice procurements, and a USD 550bn investment package. Japan says auto tariff reductions will take effect within...

Show Notes – Daily US Opening Briefing (Sept 4, 2025) Tariffs & Trade China imposed anti-dumping duties on certain US optical fibers, effective today. Japan–US in final talks to cut tariffs on Japanese auto imports; deal could take effect within 10–14 days. Joint statement and MoU on Japan’s investment package expected. FX USD modestly firmer ahead of ADP, ISM, and jobless claims. EUR steady b...

Show Notes – Daily European Opening Briefing (Sept 4, 2025) Tariffs & Trade Trump floated idea tariffs could eventually replace income tax. US warned countries not to back UN shipping emissions deal or risk tariffs. Mexico–US set up high-level groups to tackle cartels, tunnels, financial flows, and smuggling. China imposed anti-dumping duties on US optical fibers. Germany’s Chancellor Merz to...

Show Notes – Daily US Opening Briefing (Sept 3, 2025) FX USD rally fizzled ahead of JOLTS; DXY near session lows. EUR dipped to 1.1609 before recovering; weak PMI revisions offered little support. USD/JPY briefly broke 149 before pulling back; early party election talk adds to Japan risk. GBP slid to 1.3330 before bouncing; UK Autumn Budget set for Nov 26th. AUD outperformed peers, lifted by stron...

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (3 Sept 2025) FX: Dollar firm, euro slips to 1.16 despite eurozone inflation edging up to 2.1%. Yen weak on BoJ’s Himino reiterating scope for more hikes and Japanese political instability. Sterling tumbles below 1.35 as UK fiscal worries mount ahead of November budget. Antipodeans softer; PBoC fixes yuan stronger at 7.1089. Commodities: Gold hits fresh reco...

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (2 Sept 2025) Today’s update covers FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics: FX: Dollar firm after U.S. holiday, supported by GBP and JPY selling. Euro slips back to 1.16 handle after eurozone inflation ticks up to 2.1%. Yen weaker on BoJ’s Himino comments supporting gradual rate hikes, compounded by political instability in Japan. Sterling drops through 1.3...

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (2 Sept 2025) Today’s update covers FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics: FX: Dollar firmer as markets reopen from U.S. holiday. Euro slips below 1.17 ahead of eurozone inflation data. Sterling retreats from 1.3550, muted by UK cabinet reshuffle. Yen weaker after BoJ’s Himino signals scope for more rate hikes but flags global uncertainty. Antipodeans soft...

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (1 Sept 2025) Today’s update covers FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics: FX: Dollar softer on U.S. holiday; Fed’s Daly signals recalibration soon as tariffs lift prices and labor slows. Euro above 1.1700 despite ECB inflation concerns. Sterling holds 1.3500 amid UK fiscal debate. Yen indecisive as Japan postpones U.S. trade trip. Antipodeans supported by...

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (Week of Sept 1, 2025) This week’s focus is squarely on U.S. labor data and its implications for central bank policy, FX, and commodities: FX & Fed Policy: Markets are fixated on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls after last month’s weak print and sharp downward revisions. Consensus looks for ~75k jobs, unemployment at 4.3%, and wage growth at 3.7% y/y. Fed...