The Final Bell

Federal reserve keeps the pedal to the medal and keeps the money flowing which makes the markets happy. Expecting the USDA to cut some global crops tomorrow while increasing others. Feel weather wise is dryer in the Midwest, but Kansas & Nebraska as the dry spots. Crop ratings are still high. South America is dealing with dryness in Argentina. Some planting of winter wheat is underway while harves...

Cattle market has some bearish feel to the trade. Nothing exciting in the cash cattle market. Will we see boxed beef continue to drop? What about all the meat that is “sitting around”? Beef lower, cash lower, Latest inquiry from the Justice Department. 60 days yet of muddy waters to get through. Pork exports ALL TIME high. Are we building premium into the back months? Friendly to the grains.

6-8-20 Funds are liquidating during the day trade after liquidating overnight. Buy corn/sell beans is the feel. Weather is the market right. No major signs of drought in the Midwest. Crop progress info out later this afternoon. Southwest Kansas dry but not drought dry. Brazil should be releasing final bean & corn estimates. Shouldn’t be a surprise to see a large number of soybeans & unchanged on t...

6-5-20 Corn & Beans finish the week to the positive. Ethanol market remains stable on the week. Wheat has seen the struggles this week. Outside market influences continue to keep hold of the trade. China has our emotions on a string. Boxed beef drops…needs to, to be able to move product. Normally we are talking grilling, a result of boxed beef prices. June hog contract sets the tone for the trade....

6-4-20 Higher grains wrap up a Thursday trade. Ethanol margins continue to stabilize while warmer drier weather is starting to factor into the trade. Export sales for the week considered "ok" and the dollar trades lower again. A look at the basis in the country and all the dicamba talk surround the ag industry today.

6/3/20 Markets are trying to push positive. Data is starting to show the economy is bouncing back. More gas purchases. A rebound started in the month of May. Dollar is going down, selling treasuring. All supporting the commodities. NASDAQ is within 1 ½ % of high. Dow Jones up roughly 40% of where it was in March. Exception to all of this is corn as it seems to get shorted. More buying by China of...

China/trade/talk is it all getting brushed to the sidelines? Are we becoming numb to the talk? Any surprise from the crop progress report of Monday night? Beans saw some technical movement. Corn has been dead in the water. Wheat market is under some harvest pressure. Why flip the screen…cattle markets go limit down, what is going on in the cattle complex? Boxed beef is starting to fall like a rock...

6-1-20 Warmer weather moving in to the Midwest. Lower corn & wheat mixed beans. Ethanol margins remain stable. How much will China and latest ag import halts effect the trade? Does China want more soybeans? Is there worries about Phase One moving forward? How will South America factor in? Marketing year export inspections falling short, no surprise. Any surprises expected in the crop condition rep...

Highlight of the day was the wheat market…crop doesn’t look good & the market is finally responded to it. EU wheat isn’t good, U.S. wheat has some struggles. Tension once again with China. Shifting away from planting & focus goes to weather & plant growth. Rains of the past few days will help out the crops with upcoming heat. Bean exports were small, but to China.

How does the corn and soybean markets look to you this time? Are the funds playing much of an impact in the corn and soybean markets at this time? How is the demand for corn in the ethanol industry looking? What does feed demand look like to you? How are corn exports looking? Why is China buying soybeans from Brazil when our soybeans are cheaper? Do you think we have seen a bottom in the corn mark...

Getting a lot of questions about Hong Kong and the assessment & what will happen from that assessment. Will it affect Phase One? Brazil corn on what is being heard. Acre numbers & prevent plant…recent crop progress numbers, no big surprise. Are there some weather worries? Black Sea update with rains & damage. Livestock-where are we at on processing capacity? June cattle moves about the 100-day mov...

No news was good news from the weekend. No trade issues popping up. Some shorts in the market & not a lot of willing sellers. Scattered rain showers will slow some but welcome rain for others. Some solid weekly exports for the corn but soft for the soybeans. Ethanol…could we be getting back to a new norm with summer driving & ethanol exports could be the wild card? Easier to buy then it was to sel...

5-22-20 Looking at the frustration of turning the corner on COVID & then a trade war starts picking up. White House puts out 16-page release in regards to China. Will we see counter measures? Is China to be blamed for what is happening globally as we see countries increase pressure on China & China in turn puts tariffs in place. Torpedo’s Taiwan & soybeans. Seasonally tendencies for corn. Heading...

Looking at export numbers released today, weather front moving in bring some much-needed moisture to the western corn belt. Some trade friction with a return to demand. Mike had a report he did looking at China. Is there some retaliation coming from China to countries that question the COVID-19 start? Cattle on Feed report out on Friday. Grocery store with ground beef prices.

Corn received the short end of the spreads. Wheat has had some dry weather issues. The virtual wheat tour is under way in Kansas. How will that effect the way the market trades? Brazil has had some weather, is there a break headed their way in the drought. EU & Black Sea weather…what is the damage? Impact of the CARES act what will that mean for the markets. Update on African Swine Fever.

5-19-20 President Trump spoke to the farmers today. How are his comments going to have an effect on the markets today & in the days to come? Is the world starting to turn against China & will it help to straighten things out? Politics involved muddies the waters. Is there some stabilization happening in the ethanol market? The President also suggested not taking beef from other countries. A quiet...

Why was the Monday trade so quiet? Is it the calm before the storm? Dow was up, talk of China & trade once is making the news. Is the bans on foreign trade circling back to COVID-19 & China. Cooler temps will that have any effect on the crop progress tonight? Australia gets a tariff put in place on beef from China, China turns around and buys blueberries & barley from the U.S. will this lead to mo...

Post virus reopening…crude oil is getting higher; ethanol demand is picking up. Is there a shift in the markets? Potential inflation due to spending? COVID outbreaks at the ports in South America. What does that mean for U.S. exports? Crazy milk market. Seeing some pre-virus prices in come contracts! Lower box beef levels on a Friday.

May contract goes off the board today. Some disappointment in the beans. Weather will continue to be on the back burner. Bean & China…what about the trade talk wants? Cattle had another rough day with hogs being able to hold their own. Thoughts on the movement of boxed beef.

Risk off across the board. Equities under pressure. Did we forget about yesterday’s WASDE report that fast? Global economy is it falling apart? Are we opening to quick? Has a negative tone been set? How is the ethanol market faring? How dry is it in the Western U.S.? Another drop in the cattle market …same battle with what the value of the animals are at the slaughter plants.

Reaction to the WASDE report. Big stocks to use ratio for corn. How will these numbers play out into the rest of the trading week? Significant acres remain unharvested in North Dakota last month, USDA will re-contact producers there in May to gather production data on those acres. We will find those numbers out in June. Ethanol production numbers from today’s report. Only one big number in soybean...

Chinese buying soybeans. WASDE on Tuesday. Est for 2020 carryout is 3.3 billion could be a new record. Largest corn crop on record. What about the stocks to use ratio? How will ethanol & feed demand fair? What are the soybean numbers looking like? Lower stocks & carryout for wheat. On the flip side livestock took a hit on a Monday for the cattle. Hogs were lower, but not as drastic as the cattle m...

Green on the screen for a Friday in the grains. To keep in perspective, low commodity prices is taking its toll. Change in the week for corn, beans, wheat, cattle & hogs for the week. Demand & exports. Weather, ethanol working towards processing with DDG’s for livestock.

5-7-20 Another limit up day in the livestock…what does that mean for the near term? Relationship between grain & livestock producers in these current times. Will we see $500 Choice boxed beef? We go through these feelings every year with market movements, just this year its escalated feelings. We are socially isolated on a regular day in ag, but as it continues the feels are getting more stressed....

This weekend’s freeze, what does this mean for the Midwest? Weather in the Black Sea, Brazil sees less rain opportunities. What kind of summer do we suspect? Don’t forget next Tuesday’s WASDE report looking at the 20-21 marketing year. Cash cattle trade saw some .95 & then 1.10…that helped the limit up trade.