The Final Bell

8-28-20 • Import tariffs being cut in Brazil • China continues to buy at these price levels • Fed Policy change…could be good for commodities • Any concerns with this dry weather continuing? • Basis in the country with the current weather conditions • Chinese & the politics here in the U.S. • Cash cattle market a disappointment • COVID and lack of protein movement is becoming more sensitive

8-27-20 Where are we going from here? What do we have for a crop size? looking at past yields, what can we learn? Is there a risk premium before harvest South American farmers are getting ready for early planting with fwd. selling big cattle supplies...is the marketing lull there Will China be the big savior in the hogs?

8-26-20 • Hurricane Laura • Lack of rain in the Midwest • Look for another downturn in crop ratings on Monday • Better chance for rain starting Friday • China & its corn & soybean purchases • Bloomberg story on soybeans & China • What happens after the purchases? • Will we see buying after January 1? • Cattle market trade took a hit on the futures today • ASF & China

8-25-20 • Turn around Tuesday on the grains • Corn crop not as good as everyone had hope…market is starting to realize it. • Expect the USDA to start lowering yield estimates. • China keeps buying to make up for loss • Weaker dollar • “Virus” reprising isn’t done yet • Counter-seasonal year in grains can still be expected in 2020 • Are we on the wrong side of the market? • Government buying, gover...

8-24-20 • Lock in lower prices…you might be feeding a bit • Weaning calves early…more expense • Need to buy hay • Cattle on feed numbers • Cutouts have been working on almost 13 sessions to the positive • Packer still have the commitment to large strings • Hogs saw some positive trade • Quiet across the board for the most part • Soybeans were looking for another export announcement coming from the...

8-21-20 • ProFarmer released numbers on Friday afternoon • Some acres have been reduced in corn • How close does ProFarmer numbers run to actual numbers we see at year end • Some acre changes for soybeans • How are charts looking

8-20-20 Crop tour continues as they are in the heart of the damage Producers are getting fed up with year...now drought is picking up price action spreads in corn & beans China/floods Wheat market continues to be the positive

8-19-20 • Did see some spreading in the markets…supported wheat, not corn • China buys more beans… • Bean numbers looked good first ½ of tour…now they are getting into the disaster areas • Will China come in and “empty” our cupboards? • Rebuilding of the livestock industry in China is going to need food • U.S. has big supplies need to market • Basis has held better than we had thought • Impressive...

8-18-20 • Cattle are acting tired • Deliveries moved • Cash market saw some 107 but not enough to rally. North has seen some light trade • Slaughter level struggles • Feeder cattle acted a bit better • Funds are buying the cattle • Hogs were horrible • Gave back what we had gained on Monday • Worst is over for the hogs • ProFarmer Crop tour…so far, a rosy picture • Markets okay on the grains

8-17-20 • Positive grain numbers to start the week • Purchases this morning from China or Brazil? • Crop update later today • Crop stress is starting to appear around the Midwest • China dealing with weather, sales along with outside influences.

8-14-20 Fall Basis Coming off a crazy week both livestock and grains IA weather/ProFarmer Crop tour Deferred charts for the cattle High cash cattle market

8-13-20 • Market rally • Iowa crop issues from the storm • WASDE • Pro-Farmer crop tour • Mixed market trade for the cattle

8-11-20 • Weather that moved across the Midwest • USDA WASDE on Wednesday • Positioning with the report • ProFarmer Crop Tour • Reaction to the weekly crop progress report • Other currencies vs. the U.S. dollar • Turnaround Tuesday for the cattle • Cash cattle will continue to move higher in the days ahead • Hogs turned lower on a Tuesday

8-10-20 • Weekly Crop Progress Report • Weather • Weekly Exports • China…will buys be cancelled • Wheat traded lower • Center part of Iowa hit hard be weather • USDA Report later this week • Cattle/hogs how has back log caught up • Feeder cattle cash leveled off

8-7-20 This is a week many are ready to put to bed. Reality check is good once and awhile USDA Report next week Not everything isn't negative out there where is the ethanol market at right now don't become a buyer right now Funds still have a sizable short position as it typically does near harvest Are grain guys nervous on lack of protein movement

8-6-20 • Real crop conditions • Latest drought map • When will the markets catch up to the country side on crops • A lot of numbers being tossed around for yield potential • Weekly export numbers strong. • A pull back in the cattle doesn’t come as much of a surprise • Hogs with a mixed trade • Feeder cattle reaching highs we haven’t seen since Feb/early March

8-5-20 • Restrict expanded limits? • Why are markets not reflecting realty with the grain trade? • StoneX on yield information released this week-how are producers reacting? • Dakota Pipeline will not get shutdown while the case is heard-good for grain • Lebanon explosion and the need for grains…port issues due to the explosion • Hog prices are stagnate • Cattle prices continue to trend higher

8-4-20 • Crop progress report • Yield information that wasn’t a big surprise to the trade • Collusion in grains? • China buying more grain as they ramp up hog production • Struggles in the cattle market

8-3-20 • More bullish on cattle then in the past couple of weeks • Cattle coming around • Could be less cattle this fall then compared to previous years • August 5, 2019 $107.80 not far off from where we are today • Weeks…not months to getting caught up. • Cash will grind higher the next couple of weeks • Packers are willing to take on inventory. • COVID & retail trade & exports are amazing. • Hog...

7-31-20 • Major export business this week • Battle between good weather and crops • Is there inflationary concern with the dollar? • Record prices in China…how short are they on food? • Little boy that called woof. • Dairy price update

7-29-20 • DC Court of appeals decision Dakota Access Pipeline-removing risk for farmers • Higher crop ratings…some ratings the highest in 10 years • Some export business for wheat out of Kansas City • Hogs see triple digit losses…roller coaster in general for the livestock • Break in product prices. • Cash for cattle sparce • Safety for workers • Fear factor continues to reign

Tensions with U.S. & China BUT we keep seeing export sales to them & unknown Weather has become a non factor at this point for crops Softer ethanol margins Weaker dollar and the wheat market Beans giving up the fight to stay positive Demand for proteins Boxed beef movement

7-23-20 Corn was able to turn higher at the close Beans at & above $9 How much is China's flooding being factored into the markets? Food Inflation China's hungry for proteins

7-22-20 • China & a somber note with the Consultant in Houston • China did and another make purchases of soybeans • Cash trade Chinese buyers looking at corn & wheat • Growing amount of evidence their temp reserve is almost empty • Gasoline consumption took another drop • Restaurants continue to shut down after reopening

7-21-20 • Is corn stuck in a range or can we test contract lows • Beans had some resistance nearing $9 • Long term weather • Cash cattle coming in steady • Consumer demand moving forward • How has boxed beef been affected? • Kids going back to school…will we see the surge in buying • Are the cattle current? Social media dumpster fire • The market complex as a whole do you even want to look at twee...