The Expert Factor

It’s the Holy Grail. The answer to all our problems. The key to, well pretty much anything the next government wants to – and can – achieve. Rishi Sunak made it one of his five pledges. Keir Starmer placed it front and centre of Labour’s manifesto. But does anyone really know how to deliver economic growth? With Paul on his holidays, The Expert Factor is joined by IfG chief economist Gemma Tetlow...

Promises not to raise tax are a feature of every general election campaign, and this year is no different. But what are Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer really saying about tax – and what does it mean for what the government can spend on struggling public services? Which taxes could still rise? What taxes need reform – and how can government go about it? And what does the public really think about tax...

How do parties decide who gets to stand to be an MP? And are they doing it right? So far this general election has been whirlwind of surprises and unexpected recrimination. Keir Starmer has been accused of purging the Labour Left to install friendly faces in plum seats. And the Conservatives had to search frantically for new candidates to replace record numbers of their MPs who’ve decided to stand...

It is a week since a rain-soaked Rishi Sunak called a general election. So what on earth is going on? Does Rishi Sunak’s surprise decision make any more sense? Is the idea of national service going to win back the younger voters? Do the claims and counter-claims about tax add up? And will anyone talk about Brexit over the next six weeks? For impartial, insightful and, yes, expert analysis and insi...

Hillsborough. Bloody Sunday. Grenfell. Scott. Leveson. Chilcott. And just this week, infected blood, the Post Office and Covid. Public inquiries can make headlines. They can alter the course of political careers. They can bring closure. They can shape all our lives. So in the week that the contaminated blood inquiry’s final report was published, Emma Norris, the IfG’s deputy director and resident...

UK universities are widely regarded as some of the best in the world. Boasting six of Europe’s top ten universities, it’s easy to see why so many students choose to study in Britain. Yet despite this, Britain faces a major skills shortage. Outcomes vary greatly across students from different backgrounds. And prospective students are increasingly sceptical about whether a degree is worth the money....

The dust has settled, we've caught up on our sleep, and the Expert Factor team have assembled in the studio to make sense of a big set of local elections. Local Government Chronicle editor Sarah Calkin is this week’s special guest, joining Anand and Paul to explain what these votes were all about and why they matter.  So what do these elections mean for Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer? Will the resul...

The general election campaign will probably be all about immigration, the economy, jobs and the NHS, but an industrial strategy – or not, if there isn’t one – could be critical to the future of this country. But what exactly is an industrial strategy? And why should voters pay attention to whether the government has one – and what Labour might do differently? Hannah and Paul are joined on this wee...

The NHS is front and centre of a general election campaign. Rishi Sunak has placed the NHS at the heart of the five pledges he wants to voters to judge him on, while Keir Starmer has made NHS reform one of the five missions which he says would drive a Labour government. But money is tight, and performance levels are poor. That familiar subject of how to reform the NHS is surfacing again – along wi...

‘Stopping the boats’ was one of Rishi Sunak’s five priorities at the start of 2023. The numbers, and the visuals, of small boats arriving on the UK’s southern coast is an issue long seized upon by Nigel Farage and the Reform Party that has, to some extent, spooked both the Conservatives and Labour. And it is a policy problem that has caused massive headaches for the finest minds in government, a s...

With elections being held in the UK, India, the US, Austria, Belgium and for the European Parliament, 2024 is going to be a huge year for politics, politicians and political parties. But could it also be another big year for populists?   In recent years populist parties of the right and left have exploited anger towards the political elite, a loss of trusts in governments, and growing democratic d...

On 5 November 2024, up to 161 million American voters will go to the polls to vote for the next president of the United States – and will be faced with a choice between the same two candidates that stood in 2020. Joe Biden, the incumbent, will again face Donald Trump – the former president who lost to Biden in 2020. But polling suggests many voters are less than enthused by the choice. Non-MAGA Re...

Take a look at the polls and you might be forgiven for thinking that the next general election is heading towards one outcome and one outcome only. But that election could be months away – even next year, and a week, let alone a month, is a long time in politics. Keir Starmer keeps reminding his party not to be complacent, and Peter Mandelson has even predicted that the next election will result i...

A major new report by the Institute for Government says the centre of government – No10, the Treasury and the Cabinet Office – is not capable of meeting the challenges that the UK faces in the 21st century.  So what has been going wrong? How has No.10 failed prime ministers from different parties over the last two decades? What does the Cabinet Office actually do, and why has it more than doubled...

Politics is not for the faint hearted, but it feels like we’re witnessing an outbreak of increasingly divisive language. Lee Anderson has been suspended as a Conservative MP. Suella Braverman’s interventions divide opinion. The Labour Party – no stranger to running into controversy over its politicians or party members – has endured a particularly difficult time in the build-up to the Rochdale by-...

Jeremy Hunt will reveal his 2024 Spring Budget on Wednesday March 6th. So what can we expect from the chancellor?  Has the fiscal situation improved – or worsened – over the last few months? Are tax cuts really plausible given the state of public service performance?  How will Labour’s shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves respond? Will this be the last budget before the general election? And could this...

On the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Expert Factor team assemble to examine what an era of global instability means for the UK, for our government and for British politics. What would the return of Donald Trump to the White House mean for whoever wins the general election? How is the conflict in the Middle East impacting British politics – and the decisions that British p...

With Paul Johnson away on holiday, Hannah and Anand are joined by Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen's University Belfast, for a deep dive into recent dramatic political developments in Northern Ireland. A deal has finally been struck and power-sharing has been restored in Northern Ireland. So how will it work? What has been the human cost of an absence of government at Stormo...

Guess what issue tops the charts of voter concerns? It’s the economy, stupid. Interest rates have soared. We've had high inflation. Mortgage rates have hit eye watering levels. And tax rates are at record highs. So just how unhealthy is the UK's economy? How might things change in the run up to the next election – and will Rishi Sunak’s pledges work out? Will whoever forms the next government be i...

It is four years since the UK left the EU – and nearly eight years since that referendum. So what have we learnt? How has Brexit worked out – and what changes could yet be introduced? What is the current state of UK/EU relations? How might they develop in the future? And could a future government try and renegotiate the UK’s deal with the EU? This episode of The Expert Factor is a deep dive into h...

Adam Fleming, presenter of the BBC’s daily Newscast on BBC Sounds and Antisocial on Radio 4 joins us for this special live recording of The Expert Factor! What is the best way to hold politicians to account? Does it matter if a minister is given an official warning for making inaccurate claims? Who reads manifestos and do manifesto pledges actually matter? How can we find out what voters are reall...

Power changes hands overnight following a general election. Shadow ministers go from running small offices to being in charge of thousands of civil servants. Their advisers become all-powerful special advisers operating at the heart of government. And the leader of the opposition moves from an office in Parliament to 10 Downing Street, instantly handed the levers of power and a Rolodex of the worl...

This could be a pivotal year for British politics. A general election is set to take place in 2024. Rishi Sunak is urging voters to stick with the plan. Keir Starmer is pitching this as a year of change. So when might the general election be held? What is the most likely outcome? How will the economic outlook shape the next government’s options? Will the March Budget shift the dial? What are the b...

Spectacular by-elections. The Covid Inquiry. The privileges committee report into Boris Johnson.. War in the Middle East. An outbreak of civil war in the Conservative party. It has been quite some year. So how did Rishi Sunak's pledges work out? Has Keir Starmer done enough to convince the electorate? Is the economy on the mend? Are public services on the decline? Is Brexit still getting done? And...

Matt Hancock, Dominic Cummings, Rishi Sunak, Patrick Vallance, Chris Whitty and, of course, Boris Johnson have all relived – and tried to justify – the decisions taken by government during the pandemic. So as the year draws to a close, The Expert Factor takes stock of progress in the Covid Inquiry and whether the questions being asked – and the answers being given – are helping to explain how John...