The Exchange

A key inflation gauge shows prices are cooling. But are they cooling enough for the Fed to hit the brakes on interest rates? We’ll debate. Plus, Citi apparently isn’t worried about a downturn, giving the U.S. a double-upgrade today. Are U.S. equities the place to be? We’ll ask our strategist. And, we’ll look at big changes happening in Hollywood & the movie landscape, and see who’s best-positioned...

Inflation overseas is falling sharply. The Nasdaq is up 20% from its lows. And oil is popping 6% this week. Is the market giving us the “all clear” signal, or not? We’ll debate. Plus, we’ll read the tea leaves in the options market, as trading activity picks up in the VIX and high-yield areas. And, health care is one of the worst-performing sectors so far this year, and our investor says the upsid...

Kelly explains why rosy data doesn’t mean we’ve avoided a looming economic downturn. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It’s Day 2 for bank regulators on Capitol Hill. The biggest revelation so far? $100 billion was about to leave Silicon Valley Bank in a single day. The digital age is changing the game for bank runs, and how to prepare for them. We’ll look at how regulators plan to address that. Plus, our market expert insists the inflation downtrend is about to resume. We’ll ask what makes him so sure, and how he...

Bank regulators are in the crosshairs of lawmakers who want answers on Capitol Hill today. How could Silicon Valley and Signature Bank fail so fast? And could it happen again? We’ll bring you the latest developments, and get reaction from one expert who was a financial regulator during a previous crisis. Plus, Morgan Stanley is hailing Block’s Cash App as the place where Millennials & Gen Z do all...

More bank backstops came to light over the weekend, as U.S. officials reportedly considered expanding an emergency bank lending program.  First Citizens Bank also swooped in to acquire SVB’s branches & deposits. And the flow of deposits out of regionals and into larger institutions has started to slow, too. Goldman’s Chief Political Economist joins us to discuss all of it. Plus, one strategist say...

FT’s Gillian Tett says there won’t be a quick resolution to the current bank woes…and the Fed is not to blame.  The SEC recently warned Coinbase of securities violations, and one VC says he wants to see that fight make it all the way to the high courts.  Plus, as warnings of a credit crunch grow louder, we take a look at the names in the autos and clean energy sectors that can withstand that pain....

Markets are rebounding on hopes that the Fed could be done raising rates. But would that mean they expect more pain ahead in the banking sector? We’ll discuss. Plus, no further rate hikes should be good news for home buyers -- right? Not necessarily. We’ll dig into the divergence between yields & mortgage rates. And, TikTok’s CEO is testifying Capitol Hill, reassuring lawmakers that the app isn’t...

Kelly’s Power Lunch co-host Tyler Mathisen joins us for a special Fed Edition of The Exchange an hour before Powell and company’s rate decision.  Bankrate’s Greg McBride joins us with the real-world impact of the fastest and steepest rate hikes in history and what another increase means for consumers.  House Financial Services member, and former community bank examiner, Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer mak...

The highly-anticipated Fed meeting kicks off today and we’ll get you ready for all three possible rate scenarios--a hike, a pause or a pivot—and tell you how to position now.  And the Fed was left in charge of bank oversight after the Great Financial Crisis, but is the US banking system in better shape or is it just as dicey? Wharton Professor Peter Conti-Brown weighs in…and reveals why he’s getti...

Kelly explains what the biggest risk to the Fed’s balancing act really is. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The latest FOMC meeting is set to kick off tomorrow. Will they hike, or will they pause? Are there even any good options here, as questions on the health of global banking remain? We’ll speak with one economist who says the Fed should “pause” here, and another one who expects a “dovish hike.” They’ll each make their case. Plus, Bitcoin continues to rally, back above $28,000 and surging to a 9-mont...

Jefferies’ David Zervos says despite the financial instability, the Fed will continue to tighten. He tells us why the talk of a pivot is “rubbish.” First Republic holds more than $19b worth of muni bonds…is the safety trade about to be shaken up amid the bank stress? Plus, more than 100m options contracts expire today, and while bearish signals are cropping up, there are still pockets of bullishne...

The European Central Bank going full steam ahead despite global banking turmoil….so did the ECB just set the tone for the Fed next week? We look at what to expect and how it may impact the economy and the markets.  Plus, contagion from the banks * TO * the housing market would turn the last crisis on its head, but that’s exactly what could happen here. We’ll explain why a failure at First Republic...

Another day of banking concerns is dragging down markets. Credit Suisse appears to be the latest bank on the brink, as the Saudi National Bank says it won’t provide it any more capital. Investors here at home are hoping U.S. financials aren’t exposed to any counterparty risks here. We’ll tell you all you need to know, including how to protect your portfolio here. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz c...

Wall Street is reeling from the bank collapses we’ve seen over the past week, with many now calling for the Fed to pause rate hikes as a result. But former NEC Director Lawrence Lindsey warns that is the wrong response to what happened here. He’ll join us to make his case. Plus, the CEO of Charles Schwab will join us exclusively to defend his banking strategy, and explain why Schwab won’t suffer a...

Both SVB & Signature Bank are now out of business, while First Republic has secured funding from J.P. Morgan & The Fed. A major issue has been the safety of accounts over the $250,000 FDIC cap. But President Biden had some encouraging words this morning, after the government announced a new facility that will offer 1-year loans to banks and pay them par for collateral like treasuries & mortgages t...

Regulators just shut down Silicon Valley Bank, also known as ‘SVB Financial,’ in the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Shares were halted all day long as the bank’s capital raise reportedly failed.  And yet because of the strong jobs report this morning, some folks are still saying the Fed should hike by another half point at its next meeting in 10 days. But should they ac...

Banks under pressure…two stocks in particular making news today. It’s for different reasons, but both highlighting concerns about the banking system. We have the names, and why our guest says you should buy them regardless.   Plus, President Biden unveils his budget plan. We look at what’s part of it, and how it sets the stage for a debt ceiling showdown.  And, he has unique insight into the labor...

It’s Day 2 on Capitol Hill for Jerome Powell, with more of the same message: the data will determine what the Fed does next. Mohamed El-Erian says what comes next could very well be a Fed-made recession. Is he right? We’ll debate. Plus, rising rates & a lack of inventory are resulting in stubbornly-high home prices. We’ll look at new data suggesting it’s not getting any better. And, KBW warns a “s...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his semi-annual testimony before the Senate baking committee, saying the Fed will “stay the course until the job is done.” That could include higher interest rates than previously anticipated, and a quicker pace of hikes. And that has stocks selling off today. We’ll tell you all you need to know. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com...

Stocks are higher, even as the yield curve flashes a worsening recession warning. Are investors growing complacent? Will Jerome Powell address it on Capitol Hill? It’s a big week for the markets & the economy, and we’ll get you ready for it with how to be positioned for success. Plus, the White House is expected to crack down further on investments in China, but details are scant. So should invest...

Everyone’s talking about whether or not the Fed needs to take interest rates to 6% now. But what if even that number is too low? According to the “Taylor Rule,” rates should be headed towards 10%. Is that really feasible? We’ll ask “Taylor Rule” creator John Taylor himself. Plus, office REITs have been crushed by rising rates and slowing demand. But there’s one better positioned than the rest. We’...

Kelly explains why the traditional portfolio might not survive in this economic environment. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Is the Fed making decisions based on increasingly imprecise jobs data? One of our guests says “yes.” We’ll look at the issues, and potential fallout for markets & the economy. Plus, Europe has a major inflation problem. Experts have warned to stay away, but that’s not stopping our guests from investing there. They’ll tell us where they see opportunity. And, Matt Higgins of RSE Ventures joins us in...