The European Economy Podcast with Fexingo: ECB, Eurozone, and Continental Markets

Episode 55 of The European Economy Podcast examines the surprising surge in Eurozone dealmaking during a period of ECB rate hikes and geopolitical tension. Hosts Lucas and Luna break down the forces driving cross-border M&A activity, focusing on how higher interest rates and the energy price shock are reshaping corporate strategy. They discuss the role of private equity, the gap between Northern a...

Episode 54 of The European Economy Podcast examines the surprising contraction of the eurozone's trade surplus in mid-2026. Lucas and Luna break down the key drivers: a surging energy import bill from the Iran conflict (ECB rate hike on June 11), the euro's recent weakness against the dollar, and diverging export performance between Germany and Italy. They reference live data showing the euro at $...

The ECB just hiked rates for the first time since 2023, and the euro is rallying. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why a rate hike tied to an energy shock is actually boosting the currency — and what that means for Eurozone exporters and inflation. They look at the mechanics: how higher rates attract capital flows, why the trade-weighted dollar index at 120.1 matters, and whether this is...

Episode 52 of The European Economy Podcast — Lucas and Luna break down a surprising market trend: since the ECB's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026 — the first since 2023 — peripheral Eurozone stock markets like Italy and Spain have outperformed Germany's DAX by a wide margin. Over the past five days, Spain's ETF (EWP) is up 3.6%, Italy's (EWI) up 3.4%, while Germany's (EWG) is essentially flat...

Episode 51 of The European Economy Podcast examines a powerful shift underway in Eurozone bond markets. As the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023 on June 11, 2026 — in response to energy-driven inflation at 4.2% — yields on Italian and Spanish government bonds have risen sharply relative to German bunds, widening the spread by over 40 basis points in the past month. Lucas and Luna unpack...

The European Central Bank surprised markets with a rate hike on June 11, 2026, its first since 2023, as the Iran conflict drives up energy costs. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine how the hike is already reshaping bond markets across the Eurozone, with Italian and Spanish yields diverging from German bunds. They discuss the widening spreads, the impact on Southern European debt, and what thi...

The European Central Bank surprised markets on June 11 by hiking rates for the first time since 2023, citing a surge in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. But the impact isn't uniform across the Eurozone. In this episode, Lucas and Luna zoom in on Italy's ten-year bond yield—which jumped 35 basis points after the announcement—and explain why Portugal and Spain are outperforming. They unpack...

Episode 48 of The European Economy Podcast with Fexingo. In the wake of the ECB's surprise rate hike on June 11th—the first since 2023—hosts Lucas and Luna dissect a hidden fault line in eurozone sovereign debt. While German bunds have rallied as a haven, Italian BTPs sold off sharply, with the spread widening to 215 basis points. Lucas explains why energy exposure is the new divide: countries lik...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising surge of euro-denominated green bonds, which have returned 7.2% year-to-date, outpacing conventional sovereign debt by 180 basis points. They explore how the ECB's recent rate hike is paradoxically boosting demand for ESG-labeled debt, and why corporate issuers from utilities to automakers are flocking to the market. Using real data from the...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into why services inflation in the Eurozone remains stubbornly high at 4.5% year-over-year, even as energy prices have moderated. They unpack the role of wage growth in labor-intensive sectors like hospitality and healthcare, the impact of the ECB's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026, and how this two-speed economy is creating a divergence between goods and se...

The European Central Bank just hiked rates for the first time since 2023, triggered by surging energy costs from the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down the numbers: eurozone CPI at 4.2%, the impact on sovereign spreads between Germany and Italy, and what this means for the ECB's bond-buying toolbox. They explore why the ECB broke its own forward guidance, how markets are pricing in further t...

The eurozone economy is splitting in two. Manufacturing has stalled, but services inflation is running at 4.5 percent, the highest in over a decade. Lucas and Luna break down why a single haircut, hotel room, or restaurant meal is costing more across the continent, and what that means for the ECB's next rate decision. They look at the specific case of Spain, where tourism demand and wage growth in...

The ECB is about to cut rates again — but core inflation in the eurozone is running at 3.8 percent, well above target. Lucas and Luna dig into why services inflation is proving so sticky, looking at wage pressures in Germany's construction sector and the mismatch between headline and core that policymakers are wrestling with ahead of the June 2026 meeting. They also discuss what this means for the...

Industrial production across the Eurozone is diverging sharply. Germany's factory output shrank 0.4% in April while Spain's rose 1.2%. Lucas and Luna dig into why—from energy costs and supply chains to fiscal policy and the green transition—and what this north-south split means for ECB policy and the single currency. They reference the latest trade-weighted dollar index and the euro's recent dip t...

Episode 41 of The European Economy Podcast with Fexingo examines a puzzle: Eurozone GDP is growing, unemployment is falling, yet house prices in several major economies are flat to declining. Lucas and Luna drill into the specific case of Germany, where prices have fallen 2.3% year-over-year according to latest data, while France and Italy show similar stagnation. They explore the role of ECB's ti...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna drill into a surprising inflation pocket: rents. While headline Eurozone inflation has eased to 3.2 percent, rental costs are running at 4.8 percent year-over-year — the fastest pace in over a decade. Lucas unpacks why ECB rate hikes are actually pushing rents higher instead of cooling them, pointing to the pass-through from mortgage costs to tenant contracts. Luna...

In this episode of The European Economy Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising persistence of wage growth in the Eurozone despite slowing inflation and a cooling labor market. Using data from the ECB's latest wage tracker and the German IFO survey, they discuss how one-off bonus payments and minimum wage hikes in countries like Germany and Spain are keeping wage growth above 4.5%. They als...

The Eurozone corporate bond market is seeing a surge in issuance and outperformance relative to US counterparts in 2026. Lucas and Luna break down how ECB policy divergence, a stronger euro at $1.17, and a shift in investor demand for higher-quality European credits are driving the trend. They examine the role of the ECB's secondary-market purchases, the impact of the US dollar trade-weighted inde...

Episode 37 of The European Economy Podcast with Fexingo examines a surprising bright spot in the eurozone labor market: youth unemployment. As of May 2026, the rate for under-25s in the currency bloc has fallen to 13.2%, the lowest since 2008. Lucas and Luna explore why this is happening despite the ECB's prolonged rate hikes — looking at southern European countries like Spain and Italy, where you...

The European Central Bank's digital euro project is moving from pilot to potential rollout, and it's not just a tech story — it's a monetary sovereignty play. Lucas and Luna break down why the ECB is pushing for a central bank digital currency, how it could reshape Europe's payment landscape, and what it means for banks, privacy, and the euro's global role. They anchor the conversation in the curr...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the widening productivity gap between the eurozone and the United States. With eurozone real GDP growing at an annualized 1.6% in Q1 2026 while the US economy runs hotter, the hosts examine structural factors holding back European output per worker: smaller tech sector investment, slower adoption of AI in services, and labor market rigidities. They spotligh...

Episode 34 of The European Economy Podcast examines how Europe's rapidly aging population is becoming a structural economic force, reshaping everything from labor markets to fiscal policy. Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers: the Eurozone's old-age dependency ratio is projected to hit 31 percent by 2030, and Germany alone will need 400,000 new workers per year just to keep pace. They explore how a...

Lucas and Luna examine how Europe's services sector continues to power economic growth while manufacturing struggles, creating a two-speed economy that complicates ECB policy. Using June 2026 data on Germany's manufacturing downturn, record-low unemployment in services-heavy economies like Spain, and the persistent services inflation at 4.1%, they explore why this divergence matters for investors,...

European green bond issuance has surged past $600 billion in 2026, with France, Germany, and the EU itself leading a wave of sovereign and corporate sustainable debt. Lucas and Luna break down why investors are piling in, how the ECB's new green lending facilities are fueling the boom, and whether this is a genuine shift or greenwashing risk. They discuss the role of the EU's Green Bond Standard a...

For years, the Eurozone ran a comfortable trade surplus, exporting more than it imports. But that surplus has been shrinking, and in some months, it has vanished entirely. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine why — from rising energy costs after the Iran conflict to the structural shift in European competitiveness. They discuss the impact on the euro, on jobs in export-dependent economies like...