The Economic Effect with John E. Silvia

In this episode of The Economic Effect, John Silvia analyzes the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest Household Debt and Credit Report for Q1 2025—prior to the announcement of Liberation Day tariffs. The report reveals a rise in serious delinquencies across auto loans, mortgages, home equity, and credit cards, particularly among younger and middle-aged borrowers. This trend aligns with declin...

This week on The Economic Effect, we break down three key economic reports that paint a complex picture of the U.S. economy. From a surprise GDP dip to tariff-driven consumer behavior, we dive into how households and businesses rushed to get ahead of the April “Liberation Day” tariffs—artificially boosting imports while distorting traditional economic readings. We focus on the mixed signals in con...

This week on The Economic Effect, we dive into the growing wave of foreign investors pulling their money out of U.S. markets — and why it matters more than you might think. Host John Silvia, former Chief Economist, explains how these outflows are affecting everything from stock prices to interest rates and even the value of the dollar. What’s behind the shift? New tariffs and unpredictable economi...

Is a recession on the horizon—or are we just seeing shadows? In this episode, we dive deep into the economic data to decode the signals that matter most. From jobless claims to consumer sentiment, from manufacturing trends to commodity prices, we're breaking down six leading indicators that could reveal where the economy is truly headed in the coming quarters. With most data still reflecting the p...

The bond market just sent a hurricane warning—and investors are scrambling. Tariff wars, rising Treasury yields, and a sinking dollar have flipped the financial playbook upside down. Gold is back, the “flight to safety” is failing, and even James Carville’s favorite intimidator—the bond market—is getting nervous. Is this the end of conventional wisdom in global markets? And what happens when the r...

This week, President Trump unveiled a new set of tariffs on foreign nations, setting the stage for a complex sequence of global economic interactions. What does this mean for the U.S. economy, and what are the immediate effects of these tariffs? Although we're only seeing the first move in this global chess game, financial markets are already reacting. Prices for everyday goods like coffee and coc...

In this week’s episode, we’re diving into the most critical economic indicators that could shape the future of the economy—without the usual doom-and-gloom headlines. Are we really heading into a recession, or is it just a slowdown? We’re breaking down the latest insights, starting with the surprising drop in consumer sentiment. What does it mean for your spending habits and the future of the econ...

In this episode, we review recent economic developments, including the ISM manufacturing report signaling slower growth and rising inflation pressures. Consumer sentiment and personal spending have dropped, with inflation expectations rising and the trade deficit widening as businesses rush to import goods before tariffs take effect. These factors point to slower economic growth, higher inflation,...

Welcome to The Economic Effect with John E. Silvia   My goal is to pull from my background as Chief Economist, having worked with several investment firms and served on the Senate Banking Committee, to break down the week in economics. The core theme of this podcast revolves around dynamic economic decision-making, which is also the subject of my first book and an MBA course I taught at Wake Fores...

In this episode, we review the significant economic developments of the week. We break down three key reports that offer insight into the economic outlook and investment performance. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey showed a decline in consumer sentiment and a rise in inflation expectations, with one-year expectations jumping to 4.3% from 2.6%. The employment report revealed a...