The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making.

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of supply chain resilience. Supply chain resilience is vital and costly amid significant uncertainties related to labor and policy implementation. Companies will weigh strategies such as inventory expansion, multi sourcing, and reshoring. Will companies be willing and able to p...

We see five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of geopolitical reordering. National interest objectives will influence reordering of relationships between countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges, flows of trade, and investment. An important indicator underlying the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcomes of more...

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we will delve into the economic fault lines theme with a discussion of our top 10 economic predictions for 2024. Learn more about where we see inflation rates going, how we expect central banks to respond, and where we are likely to see growth in the coming year.  Featured expert: Ken Wattret , Glo...

The global environment has still not settled onto a clear pathway toward a new stability. As we enter 2024 in this disjointed world, we confront risks posed by potential volatility across the economic and political spheres. We also see potential opportunities arising from the new reality of greatly segmented global relationships.  In this episode, we discuss five overlapping themes as key for 2024...

Financial conditions in the US have tightened significantly of late, with a rapid jump in yields on longer-term Treasury securities, a material rise in the dollar, slowing in bank lending and continued weakness in equities. This argues for a slowing in growth of demand and GDP in coming quarters. In this episode of the Economics & Country Risk podcast, a member of our US economics team discusses t...

Deceptive shipping practices began to emerge as a topic of interest in 2020, following guidance from the US Treasury Department.   Subterfuge shipping has always been an issue. But this proverbial game of cat and mouse has continued to escalate in terms of the complexity of tactics used to circumvent these regulations, as well as the industry tools used to identify and combat them.   How are the t...

Droughts and flood events in recent years have highlighted the importance of water as a strategic global resource. Climate change will impact access to water and force many countries to modify how they manage resources, according to a new report from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The prevalence of severe difficulties to predict weather patterns is likely to continue across the globe affecting po...

Our Purchasing Managers' Index team discusses key 2023 themes through the lens of economies in the Americas.   The economists see quite a subdued picture in Canada from their latest survey results. Firms are concerned about high interest rates and how they may squeeze clients' budgets. The newly launched PMI for the Canadian service sector, which covers private sector services accounting for about...

Inflation was the economic bogeyman of 2022. Some Central European central banks believe they've banished the bogeyman and are cutting or preparing to cut interest rates. The story in neighboring Russia and Turkey is different, with central banks there making defensive moves to shore up the countries' currencies. What is driving inflation trends in these economies? And where are rates there headin...

We share our outlook for commercial and residential construction in Europe. We expect nonresidential structure spending to decline across the region. The speed and intensity of the correction in the eurozone housing market will vary by country.  What is driving our outlook in these markets? What headwinds are these markets facing, and when are they likely to ease?  Featured experts: Amandeep Bahra...

In this episode, we share an excerpt from our recent webinar exploring our latest global construction outlook. Our expert discusses the global economic drivers of construction markets, highlight changes in our forecast, and pinpoint areas of strength and weakness.  Featured expert: Jeannine Cataldi , associate director, Global Construction Group, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal...

Political change is coming to South and Southeast Asia. Elections have concluded this year in the Maldives and Thailand, and are scheduled to take place in Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia in the next year. With these elections comes the potential for sweeping policy changes and government instability.    What forces will shape this new political order? Where are we likely to...

Our forecast for US holiday sales is looking "delightfully average," according to Michael Zdinak, director, US economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence. Consumer spending has shown resilience to tightening financial conditions, thanks to a strong labor market and rising wages.   Banks, meanwhile, are eyeing deposit levels and delinquencies as interest rates have crept higher and inflation persist...

The supply chain story of 2023 so far has been one of normalization. Demand has slowed down with U. S. seaborne imports of consumer goods falling in the first eight months of the year. The seasonality of shipping patterns also appears to be returning to normal and global trade activity is likely to stabilize. But as ever, we see risks on the horizon. Trade policies are becoming more restrictive an...

Russia's economy seemed to show remarkable resilience in the face of waves of sanctions that followed its invasion of Ukraine. But recently the bank of Russia had to take steps to shore up a weakening ruble. Are the sanctions finally biting? And how much of a bite would it take to get Russia to the negotiating table? We discuss what has supported Russia's economy during wartime, shifts in trade ro...

The US market for home improvement was at an all-time high during the pandemic when many people were forced to live, work, and educate their children under the same roof. That demand disrupted supply chains for labor and materials and drove price inflation for lumber and other goods.   This year the market looks different, thanks to higher interest rates on home improvement loans, reduced availabi...

2023 has delivered some extreme weather, from extreme heat in Southern Europe to a dry spell that affected crop yields in Southeast Asia and Australia, often with tragic human consequences.     Extreme weather events like droughts and floods also present risks to economies and supply chains. For example, the level of the Rhine River in Europe can impact the transportation of a range of raw materia...

We all think of emissions when we're stuck in traffic, cars idling all around us. But how many of us think of ships waiting to get into busy ports? We may be stuck in road traffic for an hour, but ships can be waiting many hours to enter a port, generating emissions all the while.   What is the shipping industry doing to manage these wait times and get closer to their emissions targets — and save...

South Africa hosted this year's heads of state summit for the BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, and mainland China along with South Africa. The alliance admitted Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates as members from January 2024. And there's an indication of future expansion as well. What's the reasoning behind the expansion, and why are these countrie...

Sub-Saharan Africa has a potentially important role to play in the global supply chain of critical minerals, having very sizeable reserves of minerals needed for the green economy transition. Development of extractive industries on the continent is often constrained by weak infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and narrow financial markets. The increasing scrutiny over the compliance with environ...

Roughly 18 months ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, sending shock waves through financial and commodities markets. Since then, we've seen rounds of sanctions from the US and EU, an expansion of NATO, and an attempted mutiny in Russia. Still, the war grinds on. How long is the conflict likely to last? What risk factors could influence its trajectory? We discuss our recent report on the outlook for the w...

Cars. Steel. Semiconductors. Appliances. Pharmaceuticals.   More products are being made in Mexico for the US market — a trend known as nearshoring.   In our three-episode series on nearshoring to Mexico, you will hear the story behind the attraction and how long the love affair may last. We started with an overview of the economic and geopolitical risks and opportunities in episode one. We delved...

Building your manufacturing facility in Mexico can pay dividends. It can also pose risks to your business. How do companies weigh these factors when deciding whether to locate their operations in Mexico? In our three-episode series on nearshoring to Mexico, you will hear the story behind the attraction and how long the love affair may last. In our first episode, We set the scene with an overview o...

You may have heard about companies nearshoring to Mexico. Each week there seems to be another headline announcing an investment in the country's manufacturing sector. In our three-episode series on nearshoring to Mexico, you will hear the story behind the attraction and how long the love affair may last. We'll start in this episode with an overview of the economic and geopolitical risks and opport...

Supply chains are almost back to normal in terms of activity, inventories and seasonality. Yet there are plenty of uncertainties in both government policy and physical risk heading into the second half of 2023.  In this episode, the head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence shares insights from his recent Q3 outlook report.  Featured speaker :  Chris Rogers, head of supply ch...