The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Buyers of distressed real estate debt stand to make significant gains over the next few years, according to Joshua Pack, co-CEO at Fortress Investment Group. “This is going to be a trillion-dollar opportunity,” he said. Pack discusses how Fortress is getting ready for “a massive restructuring” in the sector with Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu i...

US-style creditor-on-creditor violence spreading to Europe is a worry for loan investors, according to Camille McLeod-Salmon, portfolio manager at Fidelity International. “What we are focused on is this move that’s in the US towards creditor-on-creditor violence — and the shift that you’ve had there — and that translating into Europe,” she said. London-based McLeod-Salmon talks to Bloomberg News’...

Geopolitics are a potential menace to public debt markets that could present opportunities for private lenders, according to Mike Dennis, co-head of European credit at Ares Management. “The capital markets in general are still pretty fragile,” Dennis tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “It wouldn’t take much for that liquidity to reverse out of the s...

Collateralized loan obligations are among the best debt investment opportunities for this year, according to John Wright, global head of credit at Bain Capital. Spreads on the structured investment vehicles, which repackage leveraged loans into bonds of varying risk, may tighten further, even as default rates rise, Wright tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’...

 The US economy is at risk of tipping into recession in the second half of this year, putting pressure on corporate debt markets, says Chris Alwine, global head of credit at Vanguard. “What would precipitate that shallow recession is that corporations are just not hiring, with a modest increase in layoffs,” said Alwine. Vanguard, one of the biggest money managers in the world, with $8.6 trillion i...

Private debt needs to get better at explaining itself as the $1.6 trillion asset class goes mainstream, according to James Reynolds, global head of direct lending at Goldman Sachs. “We collectively need to just demystify what we do — which is in simple words, lending to corporates,” Reynolds tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in the latest Cr...

Private-debt firms are set to consolidate as larger companies dominate deal flow, according to Marc Chowrimootoo, portfolio manager at Hayfin Capital Management. “We’re seeing a concentration within fewer hands,” Chowrimootoo tells Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee and James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Julie Hung in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “That trend is going to continue.” He identifies d...

Commercial real estate faces a tough 2024 as trillions of dollars in debt comes due and refinancing gets harder, according to Neil Callanan, corporate finance czar at Bloomberg News. Offices in financial centers are especially under pressure after banks tightened lending standards, Callanan tells Bloomberg senior editor James Crombie in the latest episode of the BI Credit Edge Podcast. He’s watchi...

New entrants to the rapidly-growing private credit market, scrambling to deploy capital as demand exceeds supply, risk making loans that don’t perform well, according to Alan Schrager, senior partner and portfolio manager at Oak Hill Advisors. “You sort of love private credit tourists who potentially do bad deals, because bad deals that ultimately you don’t own make you look good on a relative bas...

Private credit will hog the limelight in 2024, with ever-larger deals and continued expansion, even as high rates and a slowing economy add risks. To discuss the outlook for next year, Paula Seligson and Lisa Lee — senior reporters in Bloomberg’s global private credit news team — join senior editor James Crombie in the latest episode of the Credit Edge podcast. Private debt will likely attract mor...

More companies will default on their debt next year because of higher rates and slower earnings, but there won’t be a widespread crisis, says Christopher Sheldon, co-head of credit and markets at KKR. “We don’t think it’s Armageddon,” he tells Bloomberg News senior reporter Lisa Lee and senior editor James Crombie in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. He expects continued stress in the retai...

Private credit offers double-digit returns with structures that can reduce risk, just as increased competition boosts secondary trading options, says Mark Attanasio, co-founder of Crescent Capital. “We don’t see a bubble yet,” he tells Bloomberg News senior reporter Lisa Lee and senior editor James Crombie in this episode of the Credit Edge podcast. He avoids transport and energy, but is looking t...

When fast-food chain Raising Cane’s tapped the US capital market this month, it revealed a $7.6 billion fortune held by CEO Todd Graves. Strong demand for the chicken-finger maker’s bonds highlights growing investor appetite for risky debt as the US economy appears headed for a soft landing, Bloomberg News reporter Michael Tobin tells Bloomberg senior editor James Crombie in this episode of the Cr...

Private credit’s rapid growth and lack of transparency are concerns to be monitored as funding costs jump, says Fraser Lundie, head of fixed income at Federated Hermes in London.  Steep rises in interest payments for lower-rated companies are “not going to be absorbed cleanly and easily,” he tells Bloomberg News senior reporter Lisa Lee and senior editor James Crombie. “The lack of look through is...

WeWork Inc. — known for free-flowing booze and a fleeting $47 billion valuation — declared bankruptcy just two years after going public. This cautionary tale of over-indebtedness highlights the perils for investors who fall in love with businesses they don’t really understand, says Bloomberg News senior reporter Reshmi Basu. And it’s a warning for lenders to astronomically-valued start-ups as borr...

Private lending is the best opportunity in debt markets today, says Tristram Leach, co-head of European credit at Apollo Global Management. “If I had to pick a single area that I think you’re meant to lean in to — and frankly, where we’re seeing clients lean in to as well — it is private credit,” he tells Bloomberg News senior reporter Lisa Lee and senior editor James Crombie. An extra 200 bps ove...

Opportunities for robust returns in debt markets are the best “in quite some time,” despite rising default risk, says Rob Zable, global head of liquid credit strategies at Blackstone. In this episode of the Credit Edge, Bloomberg News senior reporter Lisa Lee and senior editor James Crombie quiz Zable on his optimistic outlook — and where he sees risk. Plus Bloomberg Intelligence analyst David Hav...

The resignation of a top Texas bankruptcy judge after it emerged he was dating a leading lawyer has rocked the insolvency world. To analyze the fallout, we’re joined by Steven Church and Amelia Pollard from Bloomberg News. Creditors may now challenge some of the judge’s prior rulings, while his downfall revives scrutiny of where companies are filing for bankruptcy. Also in this episode of the Cred...

Fortune favors the bold in credit markets this year, with the biggest returns coming from the highest-risk debt. To analyze why and what’s next, we’re joined by Gowri Gurumurthy, a veteran high-yield bond reporter at Bloomberg News. Triple C rated bonds and leveraged loans are poised to extend gains barring a major geopolitical shock, while defaults will probably stay low, Gurumurthy says. Also in...

The $8 trillion mortgage-bond market plunged to levels rarely seen since the global financial crisis as Treasury yields surged. To analyze why and what’s next, we’re joined by Christopher Maloney, mortgage strategist at BOK Financial Capital Markets, and Bloomberg News reporter Scott Carpenter. Homebuyers face the threat of even larger debt payments, while credit investors may find an opportunity...

China’s property crisis has lurched into a perilous new phase — with significant implications for the world’s second-largest economy, according to Bloomberg News’ Alice Huang. The deepening distress hurts other industries and repels foreign investors, Huang says. In this episode of the Credit Edge, Bloomberg News senior editor James Crombie also asks Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Spencer Cutter a...

Leveraged finance has sprung back to life with jumbo buyout deals and dividend loans, according to Bloomberg News’ Claire Ruckin. Credit investors are increasingly hungry for risk and companies are piling on debt amid hopes of a soft landing and lower rates ahead, Ruckin says. In this episode of the Credit Edge, Bloomberg News senior editor James Crombie also asks Bloomberg Intelligence analyst To...

Companies hitting the bond market at record pace left investors hungry for more, according to Bloomberg News’ Caleb Mutua. The deluge will be short-lived as borrowers retreat, waiting for interest rates to come back down, Mutua says. In this episode of the Credit Edge Podcast, Bloomberg News senior editor James Crombie also asks Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mary Ellen Olson about what’s next for...

Hedge funds are jumping into the collateralized loan obligation market in pursuit of fat and steady returns, according to Bloomberg News’ Lisa Lee. CLOs are meanwhile menaced by the lingering threat of recession and higher rates — while increasingly repackaging private debt — Lee says. In this episode of the Credit Edge Podcast, Bloomberg News senior editor James Crombie also asks Bloomberg Intell...

Banks are readying about $15 billion of leverage buyout debt for sale starting in September, stepping back into M&A after losses piled up on their books last year, Bloomberg News’ Paula Seligson, says. Also on this episode of the Credit Edge podcast, Bloomberg News corporate finance reporter Olivia Raimonde chats with Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jody Lurie, who covers the leisure sector. Lu...