The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence

Loose underwriting standards are increasingly troubling for private credit market participants, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “This concern has been growing for a period of time,” David Havens, BI’s senior analyst for private credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. Weak underwriting discipline was flagged by pri...

JPMorgan Asset Management sees value in the debt of companies building out AI, but it’s keeping a close eye on how much more they plan to spend next year. “If we’re seeing capex increase at the same rate that we saw 2025 to 2026, I think that’s probably a little bit of a red flag,” Stephanie Doyle, a portfolio manager at the $4.3 trillion firm, tells Bloomberg News&rs...

Secondary trading of private credit is on track to more than double last year’s record volume, according to HarbourVest Partners. “Through the first quarter we’re run-rating above $50 billion this year,” Greg Ciesielski, the $150 billion global private markets firm’s head of credit secondaries, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence&rsquo...

Rookie private lenders that have to sell in a downturn are a potential threat to credit markets, according to Citi. “If the cycle turns and these tourists, rather than working out loans, just start selling them at below the economic value — what happens to the rest of the market?” Mickey Bhatia, the firm’s head of spread products, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie a...

Middle East shipping disruptions are boosting US companies bruised by cheap Chinese supply, according to Sycamore Tree Capital Partners. “It really slows down the ability for some of those Asian-based chemical companies to produce,” Trey Parker, the asset manager’s co-founder and chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’...

US companies with $770 billion in loans are hitting a wall as interest rates stay elevated, according to Davidson Kempner. “We’re in year three of what’s already the longest default cycle in 20 years,” Suzy Gibbons, the hedge fund’s head of research, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in the latest Credit Edge pod...

A retail exodus from business-development companies has dragged their debt to levels that are starting to look attractive, according to MFS Investment Management. “Pressure for redemptions that they’re facing likely ends up creating some opportunities within the public credit markets,” Alex Mackey, the firm’s co-chief investment officer for fixed income, tells Bloomberg New...

Business development company turmoil is making direct lenders cautious on corporate debt risk, according to PGIM, which oversees more than $200 billion in private credit. “It’ll have a bit of a chilling effect,” Matt Harvey, the firm’s global head of middle-market direct lending, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Matthew Geudtner i...

The plunge in software debt creates opportunities to buy cheap loans from companies that will survive AI disruption, according to Permira Credit. “The market has overreacted,” Ian Jackson, the firm’s head of strategic opportunities, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tolu Alamutu in the latest Credit Edge podcast. “The broad selloff...

A bank retreat from private credit piles pressure on business development companies already reeling from a wave of redemptions, according to SLR Investment Corp. “You’re starting to see banks get nervous and start to pull back,” the BDC’s co-Chief Executive Officer Michael Gross tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Arnold Kakuda in th...

Third Point is getting ready to scoop up credit assets that others have to sell to raise liquidity as cracks in the market spread. “This is probably one of the most exciting times to be a credit investor,” Shalini Sriram, the hedge fund’s head of structured credit, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg in this episode of the C...

Consumer discretionary companies are at risk of downgrades and default if the war in the Middle East drags on, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “We’ll definitely see a bunch of companies that have been holding on finally shake out,” Jody Lurie, a BI credit analyst focused on leisure, travel and lodging, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in this special episode of the...

Fear of software defaults amid AI disruption creates opportunity for high-yield debt buyers, according to Capital Group, which has $3.2 trillion under management. “Markets are adopting a bit of a shoot first ask questions later strategy when it comes to software,” said Shannon Ward, a fixed income portfolio manager who serves on the firm’s fixed income management committee. &ldqu...

Software default rates could hit double digits as AI disruption spreads and loans come due, according to Bain Capital. “We’re going to see real stress,” said Angelo Rufino, the firm’s head of special situations in North America and corporate special situations in Europe. “We will see a full credit cycle as the reckoning really comes to resize capital structures to the...

Systematic credit investing has room to expand into leveraged loans, structured finance and emerging markets, according to Acadian Asset Management. “You could take an issuer approach to do security selection in the leveraged loan market,” Scott Richardson, the $178 billion firm’s director of systematic credit tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence&r...

Mortgage-backed securities look attractive even after government purchases snapped spreads tighter, according to Clark Capital Management. “I don’t think the trade is completely over yet because corporates are even tighter,” Oliver Chambers, head of fixed income for the firm’s separately managed accounts, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence&...

Technology companies flooding debt markets are just getting started on funding a $4 trillion artificial intelligence boom, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “This is the tip of the iceberg,” Robert Schiffman, BI’s senior tech credit analyst, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “A lot will depend on at what pace in...

Corporate loans signed when rates were low are increasingly hitting a wall as they come due, according to H.I.G Bayside. “There’s a level of discount in these stressed credits that we haven’t seen for a number of years,” Jackson Craig, who co-heads the credit-focused arm of H.I.G. Capital, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tim Rimi...

Investors underestimate the hazards in private debt, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. “There’s a lot of additional credit risk that people are often taking in some of these private situations that you kind of turn a blind eye to,” Christian Stracke, the $2.3 trillion asset manager’s president, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligenc...

Pressure on highly-indebted companies will intensify as interest rates remain elevated, according to Seix Investment Advisors. “We have a lot of credit zombies — B3/B minus or CCC rated credits — that still have very weak interest coverage, generating zero free cash flow,” George Goudelias, chief investment officer of the firm’s leveraged finance platform, tells Bloom...

Despite all the negative headlines around private credit, Neuberger Berman says direct loans pay a lot more than traded debt and barely make a loss. “We pretty consistently see a 200 basis point differential,” Susan Kasser, the gobal investment management firm’s head of private debt, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this...

Venezuela debt holders will likely have to wait years to get their money back after regime change in the oil-rich nation, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. “The near-term challenges are nothing short of massive,” says Damian Sassower, chief emerging-markets credit strategist, in this special episode of the Credit Edge podcast. “I think the rest of this year is spent trying to...

Credit is one of many overvalued markets and the technology sector is particularly risky, according to Richard Bernstein Advisors. “We’re kind of in an everything bubble at the moment,” Mike Contopoulos, the firm’s deputy chief investment officer, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Robert Schiffman in the latest Credit Edge podcast....

Long-term debt bets on technology companies that are borrowing heavily for AI may end in tears, according to Newfleet Asset Management. “It’s one of the biggest risks out there,” said Dave Albrycht, the multi-sector fixed income manager’s president and chief investment officer. “There’s no free lunch in the bond market,” he tells Bloomberg News’ Jame...

KKR is looking to Europe and Japan for yield as US debt spreads grind tighter. “Investors are very focused on relative value in a market where there’s not a lot,” Tal Reback, global investment strategist for the firm’s credit and markets business, tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence’s David Havens in this episode of the Credit Edge pod...