The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

This week’s slate of economic data left pundits divided even as investors cheered on rising markets. Retail sales surprised to the upside, inflation was muted, and bank earnings beat forecasts. However, deeper trends raise caution: tariff receipts are surging, homebuilders are cutting prices, and the Trump–Powell standoff briefly rattled equity and bond markets. Manus remains bullish yet uneasy, w...

David Putro, Head of Analytics for Morningstar Credit, doesn’t sugarcoat it. In this candid conversation with the LightBox team, he offers an unflinching look at where distress is building in commercial real estate and why resolution is moving at a crawl. With a sharp focus on office, multifamily, and malls, David explains why this cycle is unfolding slower than the last, and why some properties m...

It’s halftime in 2025, and The CRE Weekly Digest team is back with a data-driven gut check on a market that’s proving more resilient than expected. Despite tariff shocks, geopolitical tension, and consumer gloom, CRE hasn’t blinked. In fact, capital is flowing, transaction volume is up, and nine-digit retail deals are making a surprise comeback. Manus sees signs of a second half surge, powered by...

It’s a milestone week at The CRE Weekly Digest —our one-year anniversary and 52nd episode. From launch day to today, we’ve unpacked the headlines, challenged assumptions, and surfaced the trends that matter most for CRE professionals navigating uncertainty. This episode is no different.  Markets are running hot, with stocks brushing all-time highs despite risks from Middle East volatility to tarif...

What does it take to make a property—and a team—resilient in today’s volatile CRE landscape? Holly Neber, Chief Resilience Officer at AEI Consultants, joins the LightBox team to unpack the rising urgency around climate risk, insurance hurdles, and resilience planning. A 30-year environmental veteran and chair of the ASTM task group behind the industry’s first Property Resilience Assessment (PRA) g...

Inflation cools, tariff tensions ease, and investors start breathing a little easier, but is CRE catching a tailwind? The team digs into surprisingly positive CPI and PPI reports, unpacking why the market's fears may have overshot reality for now. With the May LightBox CRE Activity Index posting its first monthly decline of the year, the big question is whether this is a blip or the beginning...

CMBS workouts aren’t for the faint of heart—and CMBS expert Shlomo Chopp knows it better than most. With 20+ years of experience untangling distressed assets, Shlomo offers a rare, unsparing look into what borrowers, bondholders, and even AAA investors often get wrong. From why “non-recourse” loans aren’t always what they seem to how banking can relationships collapse under pressure, Shlomo lays o...

Markets may have cheered a court ruling limiting presidential tariff power—but don’t mistake it for clarity. The LightBox team—Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker—unpacks what’s really moving CRE: supply chain strains, shaky retail guidance, and tariff whiplash. Retailers are pulling forecasts, investors are fatigued, and Manus warns we’ve moved “from panic to complacency” way too fas...

How are regional banks navigating today’s choppy economic and federal policy waters? The LightBox team gets an inside look when they talk to Matthew Osborne, EVP and Chief Credit Officer at Eastern Bank – a regional bank in the Boston MSA.  Matt explains why Boston’s chronic housing shortage is helping multifamily remain a magnet for capital, even as affordability pressures rise, and how a VC-fuel...

What separates good brokers from great ones? In this special episode, Martha, Manus, and Dianne chat with two titans of CRE sales—Bob Knakal and Rod Santomassimo— who get real about what it takes to succeed, scale, and stay relevant across decades of market cycles. From the grind of daily prospecting to the power of knowing what the market data means, they break down the 3 characteristics of top p...

Does the first U.S. trade deal signal an off-ramp to global trade tensions? Stocks surged on news of the UK agreement, but other indicators suggest the market’s ebullience may be front-running reality.  And the Fed knows it. Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker break down the signals that may impact CRE. From lighter cargo ships at the Port of Los Angeles to persistent uncertainty in c...

Distress is building in the CRE market—and borrowers are running out of room as opportunistic investors prepare to jump in.  The power duo Tammy and David Goldfisher of The Henley Group join the LightBox team to break down what’s really happening behind the scenes with distressed commercial real estate assets, workouts, and the evolving capital markets landscape. With over 30 years of experience e...

Markets may be uncertain, but the LightBox team is keeping it grounded—with some perspective and invoking the classic Gimme Shelter . As investors brace for tariff fallout, Manus, Dianne, and Martha break down the latest headline fatigue, a housing market under pressure, and the question of whether the lending engine will keep running. The team dives into a stalled $778M securitization deal, a fun...

The timing for this conversation couldn’t have been better.  Former Federal Reserve insider Tyler Wiggers gives us a break down on what the Fed is thinking right now about monetary policy especially in the wake of the tariff turmoil and market volatility.  He shares why rate cuts may be further off than the market (and the Trump administration) hopes, and how the Fed is tracking stress points in r...

Rick Jones, Founder and Principal of Jackstay Ventures LLC, joins the LightBox crew to unpack the latest capital markets chaos stirred up by post-tariff volatility and macro uncertainty.  The conversation spans the latest pulse on recession risk and lender behavior to the evolving role of warehouse lending and the long-awaited wave of distressed debt. Rick’s take? The CRE market is doing just fine...

The team breaks down what Manus calls “tariffs on steroids” and why the impact is more opaque than anything we’ve seen before. With investors reacting to tariffs with a stock sell-off and a flight to the safety of Treasurys, the discussion focuses on the potential impact to commercial real estate (CRE).  Is CRE the new safe harbor? The LightBox CRE Activity Index suggests yes—for now. March saw it...

This week the LightBox podcast team talks with Lisa Pendergast, President and CEO of Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) about the CRE debt market. Together, they discuss the current landscape of the commercial real estate finance market, highlighting a sharp rebound in market sentiment and CMBS issuance volumes. And, despite the robust levels of new issuance, lenders are proceeding wit...

A round of mixed economic data took a back seat to the investor focus on the Federal Reserve meeting. With the expected no change on interest rates, the focus was on Chairman Powell’s outlook, inflation forecasts – (yes, he said transitory again), and how the stock market corrections are shaping investor sentiment. The team also unpacks new data about the impact of tariffs, especially on consumer...

Markets whipsawed this week against a barrage of policy and economic headlines. Inflation cooled more than expected, which was welcome news, but investors grappled with trade war escalations sparking recession fears and a sharp selloff in equities. Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down how macro uncertainty is shaping investor sentiment, from rising bond yields to heightened volatility in the stock...

Martha, Manus, and Dianne tackle another week of economic uncertainty, breaking down the latest data—and tariff turbulence—and what it signals for CRE. Stagflation fears are creeping in as the economy weathers a turbulent cycle—much like a white-water rafting trip, where each rapid brings fresh uncertainty. Mortgage applications jumped over 20% as buyers seized lower rates, while a surprising wave...

Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down the latest twists that impacted the commercial real estate market this week, from bond yields and the flipping yield curve to the drop in consumer confidence to the lowest pending home sales reading in over 25 years—all signaling a bumpy road ahead. The team asks: are we stuck in the mud? The retail sector is facing its own turbulence, with store closures and l...

Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down a short, yet jam-packed week in the markets, from the Fed’s “status quo” minutes and weak housing data to Walmart’s downbeat retail outlook and a major shake-up in government office leases. They dissect the 2.3 million square feet of leases on the chopping block—half in D.C.—and the ripple effects for landlords, small-town economies, and lenders. While CRE sent...

Martha, Manus, and Dianne dig into the latest economic data, including inflation reports that sent mixed signals to the markets. Consumer inflation came in hotter than expected, rattling the bond markets, while Fed Chair Powell maintained a steady stance, signaling no rush to adjust policy. The team also discussed the downstream effects of federal layoffs, the cautiously optimistic forecast for CR...

Investors had plenty to chew on this week, as Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker tackled everything from earnings reports to Trump tariff turbulence, keeping heads on a swivel amid policy uncertainty. Treasury rates drifted lower, sparking cautious optimism, while Professor Manus broke down a major federal workforce buyout and what it could mean for unemployment. On the CRE front, th...

The last week of January delivered a mixed bag for the markets—the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, a fresh GDP print showed slower-than-expected growth, but most notably AI upstart DeepSeek sent shockwaves through the tech market with its launch. In this episode, Martha Coacher, Dianne Crocker, and Manus Clancy dig into the AI disruptor’s Sputnik moment and its potential impact on data cente...