The Bitcoin Layer

In this episode, Nik covers bitcoin's 22% week and a run that took price to just shy of $80,000. He walks through the multi-year trend line connecting the FTX lows to the start of the ETF bull market, why bitcoin generates most of its returns in short concentrated bursts, and the bullish divergence that showed up before this move. Nik explains why he thinks the real driver was not the Treasury buy...

In this episode, Demian welcomes back Joe Consorti for a conversation on the Clarity Act and what it means for bitcoin. Joe explains the bill's three buckets, how it would separate commodities from securities and put bitcoin under the CFTC, and why he sees that as a win for investor protections rather than price. He covers why the bill has stalled in the Senate over ethics concerns, why he thinks...

In this episode, Demian welcomes back Stacie Waleyko, a bitcoin developer with the Bitcoin Dev Project, on the Coldcard entropy vulnerability and the ongoing theft of funds. Stacie explains how hardware wallets are supposed to source randomness, why affected devices fell back to a weaker software path, and why anyone with funds from a post-2021 Coldcard should move them now. She covers the suspici...

In this episode, Nik welcomes Jack Mallers, founder and CEO of Strike, for a conversation on his exit from Twenty One. Jack describes the guilt and humility of stepping away from a company whose vision he says did not work, and where Strike sits between an operating company like Coinbase and a conviction vehicle like Strategy. He shares his reaction to the Coldcard vulnerability, which he calls a...

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research on the Coldcard key generation vulnerability and the theft that followed. Alex explains how a March 17, 2021 firmware change left the devices silently defaulting to a much weaker random number generator, a bug that went unfound for five years, and why the victims are self-custody holders who never leaked a key or made a mistake. He w...

In this episode, Nik and TBL's Demian Schatt cover a breaking security situation: a seed-generation vulnerability in Coldcard hardware wallets that has exposed some bitcoiners to theft, with reports of wallets being swept over the last twenty-four hours. Nik, speaking as a researcher rather than a cryptographer, explains how bitcoin seed phrases are generated, why the entropy behind a seed is what...

In this Global Macro Update, Nik covers today's FOMC decision and Kevin Warsh's press conference, where the new Fed chair reaffirmed the 2% inflation target as a firm goal and made clear he is steering the Fed away from forward guidance. Nik explains why Warsh took credit for the recent rise in Treasury yields, calling it healthy price discovery, and why Warsh now says the Fed will look to the Tre...

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Matt Dines to lay out his thesis that the global order built after World War Two is being reset. Matt walks through the signals he is watching: the Kuwaiti pipeline deal with Blackstone, KKR, and Brookfield that reroutes energy toward Europe, the US-China rare earths truce and its expiring clock, and the chokepoints from Hormuz to the Red Sea. He connects rising...

In this episode, Nik walks through the latest bitcoin research from Johan Bergman, head of bitcoin research at The Bitcoin Layer, using the charts inside TBL Pulse. He explains Johan's state grid, which plots bitcoin on valuation and trend, and why the framework currently places bitcoin in disbelief territory, a zone where, together with capitulation, bitcoin has spent roughly 40% of its life. Nik...

In this Global Macro Update, Nik returns from teaching his summer bitcoin and AI course at USC to a market waking up after the World Cup lull. He makes the case for a global dollar shortage behind the dollar's continued strength, with stress surfacing across Asia: India's push to pull in overseas dollars, a sharp correction in Korea's KOSPI, and the Japanese yen at its weakest level since 1990. He...

In this episode, Nik welcomes CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten to discuss why he believes bitcoin's bear market may be nearing its end. James walks through ETF flows that have held firm despite months of outflows, the rotation of capital out of AI and semiconductor names like NVIDIA, and where that money could head next. The conversation turns to Michael Saylor's decision to sell bitcoin near th...

In this global macro update, Nik asks whether bitcoin has finally bottomed after tagging 58k and reclaiming 60,000. He walks through the bullish divergences forming on bitcoin's daily and weekly charts, why a grinding-higher dollar has been weighing on liquidity and bitcoin all year, and why he now sees Asia, particularly yen and Korean won weakness, as the most likely spot for trouble. Nik also c...

In this episode, Nik welcomes Peter McCormack, host of the Peter McCormack Show, for a conversation on how he is using AI in his own business. Peter, who has no coding background, walks through the full podcast-management system he built with Claude in 11 days, work he says would once have taken a 14-person team over a year and cost around a million pounds. He covers how he got started, how he lea...

In this episode, Nik welcomes Charlie Hu, founder of Coco AI and a bitcoiner since 2012, for a wide-ranging conversation on where AI is heading. Charlie shares takeaways from the Super AI conference in Singapore, walks through SpaceX's $60 billion acquisition of Cursor and what it signals about AI capital and exits, and gives his read on the US government's suspension of Anthropic's Fable and Myth...

In this episode, Nik welcomes Michael Sullivan, a bitcoin researcher who analyzes market sentiment through language. Michael explains how he runs natural language models across thousands of tweets, cohorting bitcoiners into newer retail accounts versus longer-term holders, to measure moods like anger, conviction, optimism, and apathy over time. He covers why bitcoin is in one of the most prolonged...

In this episode, Nik welcomes Tony Yazbek, co-founder of The Bitcoin Way, for a conversation on why owning bitcoin yourself is the whole point. Tony argues that bitcoin is money rather than an investment, and that anything wrapped in legacy finance, from ETFs to exchange balances, is not the same as holding it directly. He recounts surviving Lebanon's 2019 banking collapse, when he woke up homeles...

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Tanvi Ratna, geoeconomic strategist and Fox News columnist, for a conversation on why the Iran conflict is far bigger than the Middle East. Tanvi lays out her thesis that Iran is the node in a global re-architecture of the world order, and walks through how the war is realigning Europe, reshaping NATO as European commanders take over operational theaters, and squ...

In this episode, Nik welcomes John Tinsman, founder and portfolio manager at AOT Invest, for a conversation on why the AI buildout looks like a revolution rather than a bubble. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Daniel Batten, bitcoin researcher and longtime voice on bitcoin's role in energy, for a conversation on the collision between AI, the power grid, and bitcoin mining. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Dr. Stephen Perrenod, astrophysicist and member of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, for a conversation on the mathematics behind bitcoin's price. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Joe Consorti, a TBL veteran who helped build The Bitcoin Layer in its early days, for a conversation on bitcoin, AI, and the next phase of markets. Joe explains why bitcoin has lagged equities, why the four-year cycle may be breaking, and why AI could become one of the biggest long-term bull cases for bitcoin. He also breaks down the volatile macro setup ahead, f...

In this Global Macro Update, Nik argues a global bond crisis is brewing and it starts outside the United States. Japanese yields are driving the worldwide sell-off, with German and UK bonds close behind, while inflation expectations roar back on the oil shock from the war in Iran. Nik walks through every major asset class, the bear flattener in US Treasuries, why credit spreads show no fear at hom...

The CME just launched compute futures, with CEO Terry Duffy calling compute "the new oil of the 21st century." In this video, Nik argues this is the dominant force in markets right now, and it's exactly what he laid out in yesterday's Substack post, The Token Layer. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

Nik welcomes Matt Dines, CIO of Build Asset Management, back to The Bitcoin Layer to unpack the UAE leaving OPEC and what it signals about a broader dollar system remake. Dines ties the UAE's pivot toward direct Fed swap lines to the Bank of Japan holding rates, the un-inversion of the 3-month / 6-month T-bill curve after 130 weeks, and the disaster unfolding in UK gilts. He closes with his thesis...

Nik welcomes back Lyn Alden for a wide-ranging conversation on AI's economic impact, the repricing of software stocks, and why the deficit only goes one direction. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.