The Bitcoin Layer

In this video, Joe walks through how bitcoin's 4-week 25% correction may be coming to a close. Despite Mt. Gox now redistributing 94,500 BTC, and the German government selling $21 billion in BTC over the weekend, bitcoin managed to spring off of the low-$50,000 level. Factors that have been headwinds for BTC over the last month are no longer hurting its market price, and after a 7.5% weekly drop,...

In this episode, Nik delivers a global macroeconomic update after the all-important ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and a close technical look at bitcoin, stocks, and Treasury yields. We remain on recession watch after a scary ISM services contraction and multi-year high in unemployment claims. Stay to the end of the episode for Nik's crucial bitcoin technical area to watch. Subscribe and...

In this episode, Joe walks through four important bitcoin charts before the long 4th of July weekend gets underway. He looks at ETF buyers re-entering the market after a 3-week slump, forecasting that bitcoin may be slated to break its consolidation. He suggests that BTC will likely resume its bull run due to the S&P 500 correlation with BTC dropping rapidly. He takes a look at BTC dominance r...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Peak Vortex Capital co-founder Shash Aryal to discuss the commercial real estate market. As a distressed CRE investor, Shash brings an on-the-ground knowledge of the latest economics in office buildings, multifamily residential, and data centers and presents an informative chart pack with the most important CRE numbers. He explains why equity for many projects has...

In this episode, Nik is joined by housing analyst Melody Wright to discuss the US residential real estate market. In a sweeping analysis of why the housing market is heading for a very troublesome 2025, Melody details the inventory issues in Texas and Florida due to pocket listings, private equity, and other forms of distressed borrowing arrangements. She also explains what Americans should do in...

In this episode, Nik is joined by real estate developer Kelly Lannan to discuss his vision of Bitcoin Urbanism. Kelly walks us through a history of residential real estate in the United States and skillfully explains why government policies and central banking have driven extreme distortion. He covers the reasons for a drop in building quality, describes the multi-trillion dollar infrastructure ga...

In this video, Joe explores several crucial factors influencing the bitcoin market. He begins by addressing the Mt. Gox FUD and its historical impact on Bitcoin's price, explaining why most creditors are unlikely to sell their recovered Bitcoin. Joe then discusses recent net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and their connection to declining cash-and-carry trade premiums. He briefly touches on NVIDIA's r...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Marathon Digital Holdings CEO Fred Thiel. Fred shares details surrounding the company's historical bitcoin mining agreement with the Kenyan government, skillfully describes the global energy landscape in the AI era, and details why bitcoin is a revolutionary force in the future of energy consumption. Heating homes in Finland, anaerobic digestion of methane, and th...

In this episode, Nik answers a question from the audience about bitcoin's purpose on our hectic financial world. We present the case for bitcoin as a tool for wealth preservation. By comparing bitcoin to money, currency, commodities, properties, and assets, we conclude that bitcoin's most valuable characteristic is helping people achieve deflation in a highly inflationary world. Nik discusses bitc...

In this video, Joe walks through why bitcoin did not break above the low-$70,000 range despite having the setup for it. He talks about what's next for bitcoin as it approaches a key support level called Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STHRP). STHRP has served both as a floor for bitcoin to bounce off of during prior bull runs, but also as confirmation of a downtrend if bitcoin makes a sustained...

In this episode, Joe sits down with Drew Armstrong, president and chairman of Cathedra Bitcoin, a publicly traded bitcoin miner on the Canadian Stock Exchange. Drew takes Joe through a mining masterclass. They discuss how mining public companies raise money, how the landscape is evolving, hashprice, hash rate migrating from the US, how miners are consolidating, and how L2s, Runes, and other things...

In this episode, Joe walks through an action-packed day in macro. The CPI print for last month came in cooler than analyst estimates, led by the shelter component which saw its first monthly decline in 3 years. Following the cool CPI data, rate expectations fell and risk assets popped, but Powell was quick to temper dovish hopes with his press conference in the afternoon. Though the Fed is content...

In this episode, Nik delivers a full explainer on Treasury money printing and the monetization of T-bills by banks. In another follow up episode to the recent series on Michael Howell's liquidity framework, we walk through examples of how the Treasury creates money when it borrows and spend, and compare that to the primary dealer financing of Treasuries via repo investments from money market funds...

In this episode, Nik recaps an eventful week in economic releases and bitcoin price movement. He explains the latest developments in the labor market, analyzes bitcoin fundamentals and price behavior, considers the election's impact on Treasuries, and concludes with an opinion on the state of the Fed's ample reserves framework. His ultimate conclusion is that the Fed will be forced to expand its b...

In this episode, Nik breaks down a Wall Street Journal opinion piece about the Fed's balance sheet. While explaining Fed policy rates, the repo market, and why wholesale repo funding is the most important component of financial plumbing, Nik describes how the Fed could use the timing of Fedwire payments as an indication of reserve scarcity. This an a very educational episode for those interested i...

In this video, Joe walks through several bitcoin charts to make the case that we're breaking out and moving to and through new all-time highs. He discusses some price action technical analysis, the descending channel bitcoin is trying to break above, the momentum that BTC has built underneath it, and the solid launchpad to take off from with very little froth in the futures market. He concludes wi...

In this episode, Nik delivers an economic and markets update to start the trading month of June. With a weak ISM manufacturing release on Monday morning, Treasury yields and the dollar declined, the latter breaking an important trendline. Nik discusses a record in SOFR daily usage, a terrible day in crude oil prices, and looks at Redfin housing data to identify a some trouble in inventories. The B...

In this episode, Nik brings us a global macro update focused on the US government's grand manipulation of the dollar. Nik argues that although the dollar index oscillates, the major theme of introducing dollar liquidity/supply to suppress its value continues to drive asset prices, including Treasuries, stocks, gold, and of course, bitcoin. Join us for an in-depth discussion of the US fiscal pictur...

In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL's correspondent in Africa, Noelyne Sumba. Recorded just before Marathon's huge announcement on mining bitcoin in Kenya, Noelyne explains recent positive developments in North and East Africa around bitcoin mining. As policymakers continue to enact pro-mining ordinances and approve investment in Africa, Noelyne discusses why she thinks lives will be positively...

In this video, Joe walks through bombshell developments last week in the political sphere surrounding bitcoin. He discusses the announcement that Donald Trump is reportedly considering bitcoin to address the U.S.' $35-trillion debt problem. He also breaks down the U.S. debt problem and why it has become so unsustainable, showing the trajectory of our debt growth and providing an analogy for viewer...

In this episode, Nik is joined by bitcoin on-chain analyst James Check (Checkmate). They present an overview of realized price and MVRV, two of bitcoin's foundational on-chain metrics to help people understand the importance of this new study. Checkmate presents bitcoin market analysis and his highest signal on-chain charts to demonstrate why he believes bitcoin is exhibiting classic bull market b...

In today's video, Joe discusses the latest developments in bitcoin and the broader ecosystem. In the last 24 hours, the SEC has pivoted from not approving a spot Ethereum ETF to fast-tracking its approval, causing Ethereum to jump 20% and ETH/BTC to move above 0.05. He discusses how the House and Senate are now majorly pro-crypto, passing 3 separate bills in the last 10 days in support of the ecos...

In this episode, Nik summarizes his recent conversation with CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell. After Nik interviewed Michael on May 9th, viewers asked us for more education surrounding some of the key concepts covered, including how to understand Howell's liquidity index itself, Treasury bill monetization by banks, and duration's impact on financial markets. Nik concludes with why global...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. Eric details the records shattered by BlackRock's and Fidelity's bitcoin ETFs, explains why bitcoin gives investors portfolio completion, and forecasts the next couple years of institutional demand. He also opines on the latest disclosures showing that hedge funds and pension funds have started purchasing bitcoin ETFs...

In this episode, Nik delivers a global macro update after CPI misses expectations and bitcoin jumps over 5%. He starts with the latest inflation data and weighs policy motivations at the Federal Reserve. After recapping inflation and very poor retail sales data, Nik goes through the candlesticks of Treasuries, stocks, and bitcoin to measure the market's reaction, which is bullish due to the promis...