The Bitcoin Layer

In this episode, Nik answers a question from the audience about bitcoin's purpose on our hectic financial world. We present the case for bitcoin as a tool for wealth preservation. By comparing bitcoin to money, currency, commodities, properties, and assets, we conclude that bitcoin's most valuable characteristic is helping people achieve deflation in a highly inflationary world. Nik discusses bitc...

In this video, Joe walks through why bitcoin did not break above the low-$70,000 range despite having the setup for it. He talks about what's next for bitcoin as it approaches a key support level called Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STHRP). STHRP has served both as a floor for bitcoin to bounce off of during prior bull runs, but also as confirmation of a downtrend if bitcoin makes a sustained...

In this episode, Joe sits down with Drew Armstrong, president and chairman of Cathedra Bitcoin, a publicly traded bitcoin miner on the Canadian Stock Exchange. Drew takes Joe through a mining masterclass. They discuss how mining public companies raise money, how the landscape is evolving, hashprice, hash rate migrating from the US, how miners are consolidating, and how L2s, Runes, and other things...

In this episode, Joe walks through an action-packed day in macro. The CPI print for last month came in cooler than analyst estimates, led by the shelter component which saw its first monthly decline in 3 years. Following the cool CPI data, rate expectations fell and risk assets popped, but Powell was quick to temper dovish hopes with his press conference in the afternoon. Though the Fed is content...

In this episode, Nik delivers a full explainer on Treasury money printing and the monetization of T-bills by banks. In another follow up episode to the recent series on Michael Howell's liquidity framework, we walk through examples of how the Treasury creates money when it borrows and spend, and compare that to the primary dealer financing of Treasuries via repo investments from money market funds...

In this episode, Nik recaps an eventful week in economic releases and bitcoin price movement. He explains the latest developments in the labor market, analyzes bitcoin fundamentals and price behavior, considers the election's impact on Treasuries, and concludes with an opinion on the state of the Fed's ample reserves framework. His ultimate conclusion is that the Fed will be forced to expand its b...

In this episode, Nik breaks down a Wall Street Journal opinion piece about the Fed's balance sheet. While explaining Fed policy rates, the repo market, and why wholesale repo funding is the most important component of financial plumbing, Nik describes how the Fed could use the timing of Fedwire payments as an indication of reserve scarcity. This an a very educational episode for those interested i...

In this video, Joe walks through several bitcoin charts to make the case that we're breaking out and moving to and through new all-time highs. He discusses some price action technical analysis, the descending channel bitcoin is trying to break above, the momentum that BTC has built underneath it, and the solid launchpad to take off from with very little froth in the futures market. He concludes wi...

In this episode, Nik delivers an economic and markets update to start the trading month of June. With a weak ISM manufacturing release on Monday morning, Treasury yields and the dollar declined, the latter breaking an important trendline. Nik discusses a record in SOFR daily usage, a terrible day in crude oil prices, and looks at Redfin housing data to identify a some trouble in inventories. The B...

In this episode, Nik brings us a global macro update focused on the US government's grand manipulation of the dollar. Nik argues that although the dollar index oscillates, the major theme of introducing dollar liquidity/supply to suppress its value continues to drive asset prices, including Treasuries, stocks, gold, and of course, bitcoin. Join us for an in-depth discussion of the US fiscal pictur...

In this episode, Nik is joined by TBL's correspondent in Africa, Noelyne Sumba. Recorded just before Marathon's huge announcement on mining bitcoin in Kenya, Noelyne explains recent positive developments in North and East Africa around bitcoin mining. As policymakers continue to enact pro-mining ordinances and approve investment in Africa, Noelyne discusses why she thinks lives will be positively...

In this video, Joe walks through bombshell developments last week in the political sphere surrounding bitcoin. He discusses the announcement that Donald Trump is reportedly considering bitcoin to address the U.S.' $35-trillion debt problem. He also breaks down the U.S. debt problem and why it has become so unsustainable, showing the trajectory of our debt growth and providing an analogy for viewer...

In this episode, Nik is joined by bitcoin on-chain analyst James Check (Checkmate). They present an overview of realized price and MVRV, two of bitcoin's foundational on-chain metrics to help people understand the importance of this new study. Checkmate presents bitcoin market analysis and his highest signal on-chain charts to demonstrate why he believes bitcoin is exhibiting classic bull market b...

In today's video, Joe discusses the latest developments in bitcoin and the broader ecosystem. In the last 24 hours, the SEC has pivoted from not approving a spot Ethereum ETF to fast-tracking its approval, causing Ethereum to jump 20% and ETH/BTC to move above 0.05. He discusses how the House and Senate are now majorly pro-crypto, passing 3 separate bills in the last 10 days in support of the ecos...

In this episode, Nik summarizes his recent conversation with CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell. After Nik interviewed Michael on May 9th, viewers asked us for more education surrounding some of the key concepts covered, including how to understand Howell's liquidity index itself, Treasury bill monetization by banks, and duration's impact on financial markets. Nik concludes with why global...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. Eric details the records shattered by BlackRock's and Fidelity's bitcoin ETFs, explains why bitcoin gives investors portfolio completion, and forecasts the next couple years of institutional demand. He also opines on the latest disclosures showing that hedge funds and pension funds have started purchasing bitcoin ETFs...

In this episode, Nik delivers a global macro update after CPI misses expectations and bitcoin jumps over 5%. He starts with the latest inflation data and weighs policy motivations at the Federal Reserve. After recapping inflation and very poor retail sales data, Nik goes through the candlesticks of Treasuries, stocks, and bitcoin to measure the market's reaction, which is bullish due to the promis...

In this video, Joe provides a timely bitcoin update after more sideways price action. He covers GameStop's surprise resurgence, why credit spreads are still low and can stay there for a while, miner economics, spending behavior, and why bitcoin stands to chop higher through the summer given the favorable macro and liquidity backdrop. The Bitcoin Layer is brought to you by River. Visit http://River...

In this episode, Nik is joined by Crypto.com's head of legal Justin Wales. He is the author of a new book, The Crypto Legal Handbook, an overview of the laws and regulations surrounding the young industry of digital assets. A long time bitcoiner, Justin walks us through the industry's latest legislative battles against the SEC and the notable victory in Congress from a bipartisan contingent to blo...

In this episode, Nik and Joe are joined by CrossBorder Capital founder and Capital Wars author Michael Howell. In a wide ranging discussion on liquidity, the global monetary system, and bitcoin, Michael shares his theories on how this year will play out in financial markets. We ask him about debt monetization, currency devaluation forces on Japan and China, the impact of cross-border capital flows...

In this video, Joe walks through 4 bitcoin charts and 1 chart about excess savings. He breaks down the near-term price action and why we have been consolidating for 10 weeks in a row, the broader macro factors at play for the rest of the year, why the smart money have taken profits but are now holding onto their coins, and why you should zoom out and observe that the bull market is likely not even...

In this episode, Nik is joined by veteran investor Craig Shapiro. Craig breaks down why he is short small cap stocks by explaining how Powell is gaslighting the markets, why Yellen continues to dump Treasuries on the investing public, and how profit margins will struggle considering policy rates remain above 5%. Craig also explains why he is long bitcoin and gold. Craig's Trading Service & Writing...

In this episode, Nik brings us a global macro update, focusing on bitcoin's correlation with the stock market, the US government's intentions on inflation, and recent weak economic data. He presents 18 charts to recap an eventful week in currency markets, what was said at the FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell press conference, and the latest US Treasury deficit funding needs. The Bitcoin Layer is bro...

In this episode, Nik is joined by international economist and Copenhagen Business School professor Lars Christensen. Lars presents a masterclass on foreign exchange rates, currency movements, and the international monetary system. The audience will learn about secular shifts in the Japanese economy driving currency devaluation, China's predicament of below-trend growth, why the AI revolution is bo...

In this episode, Nik breaks down the current devaluation of the Japanese yen. With a 27% decline since the beginning of 2022, the weakening yen is a policy decision by the government to attempt to inflate away its debt. Nik goes through charts on Japan's debt to GDP, speculates on whether this move is influenced by the United States in an effort to impact China's economy, and concludes with a char...