The Bear Market Podcast with Fexingo: Surviving Downturns, Buying the Dip, and Long-Term Resilience

Episode 82 of The Bear Market Podcast examines why Dividend Aristocrats — S&P 500 companies with 25+ years of consecutive dividend increases — have been quietly outperforming growth stocks during the current low-volatility environment. With the VIX down 8% over the past week to 17.89 and the VVIX plunging 11%, Lucas and Luna explore real-world examples like Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble, showing...

The Nasdaq is down more than 3 percent over the past five days, but the Dow and small-cap indexes are barely budging. Lucas and Luna unpack what's driving the divergence and look at the sudden spike in volume for inverse and leveraged ETFs. They walk through how the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF has seen inflows triple as traders bet against tech, and what that tells us about the market's curre...

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari surprised markets on Friday by saying he expects a rate hike this year — this as the VIX sits at 18.41 and the Nasdaq has dropped 3.3% in five days. Lucas and Luna break down what Kashkari's specific language means for the soft-landing narrative, why the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.09% suggests bond traders are listening, and how investors should position por...

The market is pricing a soft landing, but Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari just said he expects a rate hike this year. Lucas and Luna dig into what happens when the Fed tightens into an economy that's already slowing. They look at the 1994-1995 tightening cycle — the closest historical analog — and what it means for the S&P 500 at 7,354 and the inverted yield curve at 31 basis points. Speci...

The Nasdaq dropped sharply while the Dow and small-cap indexes held steady. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the Russell 2000's surprising resilience, what it says about market breadth, and why some small-cap stocks might be worth a closer look. They break down the factors behind the rotation: lower interest rates, domestic revenue exposure, and the shift away from mega-cap tech. Using curr...

Jeremy Grantham, the legendary value investor who called the dot-com and housing bubbles, said this week that the current U.S. stock market is the most expensive in American history. On The Bear Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna unpack what Grantham actually means by that. They walk through his preferred valuation metric — the Buffett Indicator, which measures total market cap to GDP — and note that...

The S&P 500 is down 1.3 percent over five days, the Nasdaq has dropped nearly 3 percent, but the small cap Russell 2000 is actually up a tenth of a percent. Lucas and Luna explore why small caps are suddenly acting as a sanctuary for investors fleeing mega-cap tech names. They examine the sequence of market leadership shifts since the pandemic, how the yield curve steepening to 31 basis points sup...

The Nasdaq Composite has dropped 4.4% over the past five days while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.7%. This divergence is the widest in months and it's forcing investors to rethink the classic 'growth versus value' narrative. Lucas and Luna dig into the sector-level data: tech mega-caps are getting hammered as the ten-year Treasury yield stays elevated near 4.41%, while financials and in...

On June 25, 2026, the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 4.5% in five days while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1%. Lucas and Luna break down the divergence: why mega-cap tech is getting hammered, what the VIX at 19.09 tells us about dip-buying risk, and how the steepening yield curve is rotating money from growth to value. They examine the JPMorgan leadership shake-up and what it signals about...

This episode of The Bear Market Podcast dives into the Federal Reserve's annual stress test results released June 24, 2026. Lucas and Luna break down what it means when the Fed says banks can absorb $708 billion in losses, why JPMorgan promptly announced a $50 billion buyback, and how the overhaul of capital rules shifts the calculus for bank stock investors. They explore the tension between highe...

Lucas and Luna explore the rise of prediction markets, centered on Kalshi's potential IPO and the CFTC's lawsuit against Kentucky. They discuss how these platforms differ from traditional finance, the regulatory landscape, and what the VIX at 18.75 says about market uncertainty. A specific look at how prediction markets are becoming a legitimate asset class, with implications for hedging, speculat...

The VIX has jumped nearly 19 percent in five days, hitting 19.49 on June 24, 2026. Lucas and Luna break down what this volatility spike means for the classic 'buy the dip' playbook. They examine the Nasdaq's 3 percent weekly drop versus the Russell 2000's 1.2 percent gain, and discuss why small caps are diverging from tech. Lucas shares a specific framework for distinguishing a buying opportunity...

The VIX is sitting at 18.93, barely up on the week. But the VVIX — the volatility of the VIX — has jumped 13 percent to 99.28. Lucas and Luna unpack what this divergence means for portfolio protection in a market where the S&P 500 is down 1.5% in five days while small caps are rallying 1.9%. They walk through the history of the VVIX as a tail-risk gauge, why it matters more when the VIX itself is...

The soft landing narrative is gaining traction as the yield curve steepens and small caps outperform. But what does a 'no landing' scenario mean for defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples? Lucas and Luna break down the rotation out of growth and into value, explaining why the Russell 2000 surge is a signal, not a coincidence. They look at the 10-year yield at 4.46%, the VIX at 17.28...

Alan Greenspan passed away at age 100 on June 22, 2026 — the same day Kevin Warsh's new approach to monetary policy is reshaping the Federal Reserve. Lucas and Luna trace Warsh's playbook from his 2008 crisis experience to today's 'velvet glove' regime change. They discuss the yield curve at 27 basis points, the VIX creeping to 17.42, and what Warsh's emphasis on communication over rate cuts means...

With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.49% and the 2-year at 4.20%, the spread has widened to 27 basis points — up from near zero just months ago. Lucas and Luna break down what this yield curve steepening means for bond investors, stock portfolios, and the Fed under Kevin Warsh. They look at historical parallels, how different duration bonds behave in a steepening environment, and why the 'barbell...

Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but powerful signal: the VVIX — the volatility of the VIX — has dropped 5.7% in the past five days to 88.43, while the VIX itself sits at 16.78. They explain what the VVIX measures, why its collapse suggests options dealers are unusually complacent, and how this divergence between VIX and VVIX has historically preceded sharp moves. Using the recent yield-curve uninv...

Iran's reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday sent oil prices sharply higher, but Lucas and Luna dig into why this time might be different. With the VIX jumping 13.8 percent in five days, the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.49 percent, and real GDP growth still sluggish at 1.6 percent, the hosts examine how geopolitical risk is intersecting with a fragile economic recovery. They walk th...

Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 4.49 percent on June 17, 2026, and how it is reshaping equity valuations. They focus on the growing divergence between the S&P 500's resilience and the Russell 2000's recent 0.9 percent weekly drop, arguing that the bond market is sending a signal about economic growth that stock investors may be ignoring. Lucas uses the Buffett Indicator—...

The VIX closed at 16.78 on June 19, 2026, up 3.6% over five days — but the real story is what's happening to the volatility smile. Lucas and Luna unpack why out-of-the-money put premiums are collapsing, how the V-VIX's 88.43 reading signals a market that's pricing out tail risk, and what this flattening smile historically means for equity allocations. They cite the post-2020 normalization and cont...

On this episode of The Bear Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna dive into DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach's latest warning: that markets have already priced in a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh, and that the easy-money era is over. With the VIX at 16.78 and the yield curve still inverted, they ask whether investors are complacent. Lucas breaks down Gundlach's exact argument from his June 17 CNBC app...

SpaceX's public debut was the most anticipated IPO of the decade. But just two days after trading began, the average retail buyer is sitting on a paper loss. Lucas and Luna unpack what happened: the pop-and-drop pattern, the allocation mechanics that left small investors buying at the peak, and what this says about the broader market's risk appetite in a hawkish Fed environment. They also examine...

On June 17, 2026, the Federal Reserve held rates steady but made a hawkish shift in its statement—removing cutting bias and signaling a potential hike later this year. Lucas and Luna break down what this 'pivot' actually means for bond investors, from the two-year Treasury yield at 4.05 percent to the ten-year at 4.43 percent. They discuss why the yield curve is still inverted, how Fed Chairman Wa...

On June 17, 2026, the Federal Reserve held rates steady and removed its cutting bias, marking a significant policy pivot under Chairman Warsh. In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the legacy of Jerome Powell's chairmanship — from the 2020 pandemic response to the 2022-23 hiking cycle — and how his playbook of aggressive forward guidance, data dependency, and asymmetric risk management continues...

In this episode of The Bear Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine the recent VIX drop to 16.87 and what it tells us about market sentiment. With the VIX down over 13% in five days while the S&P 500 sits near 7,511, they debate whether this signals genuine calm or dangerous complacency. They dive into the VVIX at 91, the relationship between realized and implied volatility, and what the VIX term s...