The Annex Wealth Management SWOT Podcast

Consumer strength continues to be a strength--but not what the Fed wants to see. Further rate hikes are a certainty and the market is pricing them in. What is AI's impact for potential productivity gains?  And what does the continued slowdown in growth mean down the road?

US markets closed for President's Day--but we're still here talking about the economy and inflation. Might the market misplace inflation coming down? Does it make sense to play defense? And why is opportunity cost a threat? 

Financial conditions have changed for now, but the inverted yield curve shows up twice: as a weakness and a threat. Fixed icome continues to be very attractive. 

Labor continues to be strong while the dollar rallies. Options create opportunities and the debt ceiling issue isn't going away. 

It's Fed week. Strength: 2022's losers are the winners so far this year. Weakness: Consumer credit is expanding. Opportunity: many areas are looking strong all at once. Threat: the Fed's action has been flowing through to consumers...and Washington. 

More liquidity added to the system than you might have realized. The inverted yield curve continues to indicate a recession, but the markets may have already "baked it in." Annex Wealth Management's Todd Voit, Jason Cooper, and Jack DeRoche discuss

Strength: the breadth of the market has been outperforming. Weakness: the consumer going forward and sales volume coming down. Opportunity: international and emerging market equities. Threat: slow growth as inflation comes down.

Strength: market recovery vs. economic situation. Weakness: leading economic indicators showing signs of contraction. Opportunity: a gradual increase towards equities this year. Threat: recession worse than expected.

Strengths include the Fed's resolve to tame inflation. One weakness is diversification; it was a bad year for balanced investors. 2023 will bring opportunity in small caps while unintended consequences of monetary policy and debt remain a threat.

Anyone who wants a job can get one while economic growth is constrained by the labor market situation. Opportunities exist for companies that benefit from labor production enhancing techniques while a potential threat looms over a policy mistake.

Is the Fed winning the fight against inflation? The all-important consumer's resolve might be dwindling. Diversification opportunities might exist outside the US. Is there a threat because of lag in Fed policy?

Accelerated GDP growth...for now. A crisis of sentiment. Future returns of fixed income. The economy deteriorating in a recession.

Emerging markets, the historically deep inversion in the yield curve--and is everyone copying each other's investment homework?

This week: Strength in short duration and cash generating securities. Weakness in valuation and earning conditions for the S&P 500. Small cap opportunities and a threat from China.

This week: Market resilience, consumer spending, financial planning, and a still-hawkish Fed.

We're seeing a broad based rally tied to inflation that is declining faster than expected. The threat associated with the dollar's decline. Opportunities in international equities and debt--and the threat of market pricing based on an expected end of a tightening cycle.

This week's episode tackles how can China appears as both a strength and a weakness. Blaine Disrud and Jason Cooper discuss. Plus, the default risk of floating rate bonds and how midterm elections might shuffle the deck.

Active management flexes, continued year-long weakness, potential for additional cash, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 40 year low.

Closer to the END of Fed tightening than the beginning, weakness in the economy on the way to '23, opportunities with attractive valuations emerging, and the the threat of "the China situation".

The peak inflation narrative, economic data likely getting worse, working around a bottom, and the potential for a leg lower in the markets. Blaine Disrud and Trevor Nargis present this week's episode.

Seasonality favors a market rally while economic growth deceleration is a weakness. Small caps present an opportunity while Fed tightening remains a threat.

Bond yields, the dollar's strength impact on earnings, valuation in the small cap space, and the Fed's hawkish stance.

Natural resources and the labor market, the strength of the dollar, emerging markets, and political instability sharpen the focus on the importance of active management.

While the consumer still spends, the yield curve inverts. Fixed income becomes more attractive while the Fed fights to reduce demand to combat inflation.

The market is resilient, yet foreign oil could produce a European energy crisis.