The Americas Quarterly Podcast

In this special mid-year episode, we take a step back for a look at where the region’s economies stand, and the picture is better than many expected. We evaluate the impact of Trump’s new tariffs, the short- and medium-term prospects for Mexico's economy, as well as positive indicators like falling inflation in Argentina and resilient growth in Brazil. Our guest is Ernesto Revilla, Chief Econ...

A major confrontation is brewing between the United States and Brazil, driven by the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the deepening legal troubles of his close Brazilian ally, former president Jair Bolsonaro. As Brazil’s judiciary pursues charges against the former president for attempting to overturn the 2022 election, Trump has retaliated with threats of steep tariffs and revoked vi...

As Gustavo Petro spars with Donald Trump, violence is surging in Colombia ahead of next year’s elections. The attempted assassination of conservative presidential candidate Miguel Uribe in June set off alarm bells all over Latin America. Since then, there have been other causes for concern, including a series of car bombs in Cali and news of a plot against another right-wing candidate. In this epi...

As Brazil prepares to host the 2025 BRICS Summit, questions are swirling about the future of the group, as well as China’s growing presence in Latin America. In this episode, we explore the shifting dynamics of global influence with Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, in São Paulo, and a visiting scholar at the Harvard Kennedy School and the Carnegie E...

The recent arrests of two prominent critics of El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele have sparked renewed concerns about the country's democratic backsliding. In this episode we discuss the detentions of attorney Ruth López and constitutional lawyer Enrique Anaya, both vocal opponents of Bukele, and what these developments might signal about the president’s tightening grip on power.  We a...

On May 20, two top aides to Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada were shot dead in a rare daytime attack, raising questions about security under Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum. Known for her tougher stance on organized crime, Sheinbaum has overseen a drop in homicides and taken bold steps like extraditing cartel leaders. In this episode we speak with security expert Eduardo Guerrero to unpac...

President Javier Milei has made global headlines with his radical economic reforms and bold rhetoric, earning praise from figures like Donald Trump and Silicon Valley elites. At home, his record is mixed: inflation has dropped dramatically and a major IMF deal has been secured, but poverty remains high and economic imbalances persist. With his approval rating holding steady below 50%, Argentina st...

Just over a year after Bernardo Arévalo’s tense but ultimately successful inauguration as president of Guatemala, his administration faces a complex mix of progress and mounting challenges. Elected on an anti-corruption platform, Arévalo has delivered key reforms and economic growth—but his popularity is waning, and governability remains uncertain amid fierce opposition. In this episode, part of A...

Cuba is facing its worst crisis in decades, with blackouts and a mass exodus that has seen 20% of the population flee in five years. In this episode, we shed light on everyday life amid ongoing economic hardship, explore the durability of the Cuban regime and assess whether its grip on power is at risk. The conversation expands to Cuba’s evolving relationships with key international allies, includ...

With Brazil about a year and a half away from the 2026 elections, political dynamics are shifting once again. The economy is growing at 3%, and employment remains high, yet President Lula’s approval rating has dropped to 41%—the lowest of any of his three terms. Meanwhile, the right may be gaining momentum, fueled by the Supreme Court’s decision to put former President Jair Bolsonaro on trial for...

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum is enjoying remarkable popularity, garnering over 80% approval, while Mexico navigates shifting demands from U.S. President Donald Trump, economic uncertainty and security concerns. In this episode we delve into how she differs from her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, her evolving approach to the Trump administration, how she is handling Mexico's...

Organized crime is a persistent and evolving challenge in Latin America. At the moment crime syndicates are seeing unprecedented financial gains, fueled not only by a surge in cocaine production—more than doubling in the past decade, according to the UN—but also by profits from illegal gold mining and human trafficking. As security concerns rise, these issues are set to play a crucial role in elec...

A month into Donald Trump’s second presidency, Latin America has become a key focus of his administration. From high-stakes negotiations with Mexico to his stated goal of reclaiming the Panama Canal, Trump’s policies have already had concrete consequences for the region. While leaders like Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele welcome his return, others question the reliability o...

As Donald Trump returns to the White House, much focus was expected on Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Cuba, but Panama has surprisingly taken center stage, even becoming the site of Marco Rubio’s first trip abroad as Secretary of State. President Trump has said the U.S. should take the Panama Canal back. Are his true goals reducing China’s influence in key infrastructure projects and securing gr...

Nearly a year ago, Ecuador faced a surge of violence when drug gangs took over a TV station and kidnapped police, marking the country's worst security crisis. Since then, President Daniel Noboa has made modest progress, with homicides down 16%, but 2024 still ranked as Ecuador's second most violent year. Noboa also faced a severe energy crisis, with droughts leading to planned blackouts...

Peru quickly became one of the first countries in the cross hairs of the incoming Trump administration because of the recently-inaugurated Chancay port, which is run by the Chinese company Cosco Shipping. In this episode, we ask Alfredo Thorne, a former finance minister of Peru, what is special about the Chancay port, what this project tells us about China's plans in Latin America and how Per...

In this episode we look at what to expect from Latin America’s economies in 2025. Ernesto Revilla, chief economist for Latin America at Citigroup, evaluates the impact of Donald Trump’s return on the region’s economic outlook, his predictions regarding trade tensions, and how ideological affinities between presidents could affect economic policy. He also analyses the health of Latin America’s econ...

Since Donald Trump’s election there have been fireworks between him and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum. President-elect Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 25 percent as two leaders embark on what are likely to be contentious negotiations over migration, border control and trade. In this episode we discuss the potential consequences for Mexico and what is Sheinbaum’s strategy. We also...

Donald Trump’s second presidency will likely bring an even stronger focus on Latin America than his first term did. Trump talked often about Latin America in the campaign, mainly through the lens of immigration and trade. In this episode we explore the possible consequences of his administration for the region. What could happen to Mexico-U.S. relations, as the two countries prepare to review the...

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has an approval rating of about 50%. Unemployment in the country is at its lowest level in a decade and the economy is expected to grow about 3% this year, beating forecasts from just a few months ago. But despite all that, in recent mayoral elections across the country, Lula's Workers’ Party (PT) finished ninth in the number of mayors elected. Th...

Latin America is the world's breadbasket. The region is now the source of more than 60% of the world’s soy, almost half its corn and more than a quarter of its beef. At the same time, about 28% of people in Latin America and the Caribbean don’t have enough food for themselves. On today’s podcast, we’ll explore Latin America’s so-called “food paradox.” Why is it that as the region produces and...

Although Democrats still lead among Latinos, Republicans have grown their share of support among that community in the last two elections. Looking ahead to the upcoming contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, we discuss some of the reasons for that shift, the long and little-known history of the Latino population in the United States and how economic and social issues shapes their politica...

Claudia Sheinbaum will take office as Mexico's new president next week, on October 1, 2024. Often described as a technocrat, she also supports some of current President AMLO's more controversial policies, such as the judicial reform that was just approved. In this episode Vanessa Rubio, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former senator and deputy minister, shares what sh...

Javier Milei has so far succeeded in making drastic changes to Argentina's economic policies. In this episode we evaluate what has worked and what hasn't, and who have been the winners and losers. Milei's deep spending cuts have produced in the first 5 months of 2024 a primary fiscal surplus of 1.1% of GDP and inflation is down to about 4% a month. Poverty however continues to rise...

The entry of Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential race has completely transformed the election. In this episode we ask what we can expect from her Latin America policy were she to win in November. How do leaders in the region perceive her? What are her views on migration? What can we learn from her record as Vice-President, tasked with the challenging issue of addressing the factors that make pe...