Tea and Crumpets

Will and Adam discuss the market's reaction to the last big event of the year, i.e., the Fed's December meeting. We also try to discern what its stance tells us about the prospects for growth, inflation, and the omicron variant. We also explore the structural reasons inflation might decline despite the shrinking pool of labor, as well as the widening chasm between the performance of the stock mark...

After a brief hiatus due to technical difficulties, Will and Adam return to a market fraught with the same. We explore how index performance masks the performance of the average stock, not to mention how the U.S. has diverged from every other market. We also examine the Fed's shift from its transitory narrative, debate whether proposed tapering is likely bark or bite, and end with an analysis of t...

With football mania sweeping Cincinnati, we talk about some other manias that are helping lift markets to all-time highs. We also juxtapose the most recent monetary policy decisions of the Fed and Bank of England and how each reflects a slightly variant view of the variant. Finally, we head down the rabbit hole to talk COVID, cryptocurrencies, and oil. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management,...

We return with a new format but provide updates on some old favorites: inflation, complacency, and valuation. We also explore how the "sky is falling" narrative is changing how investors allocate capital, especially in the energy sector, why legacy producers in the Middle East are okay with the Mad Max scarcity scenario, and how U.S. producers are the Jekyll and Hyde that moodily swing prices. Sta...

Will and Adam discuss the challenges associated with being a contrarian. Specifically, hating things universally loved, like the S&P 500 and Betty White. They also explore the market's complacency despite the specter of inflation, Chinese economic risks, retail being "maxed out" on equities, and potential fiscal headwinds domestically. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and...

Will and Adam discuss the newest COVID variant, as well as the repercussions of the Afghanistan withdrawal, especially as they relate to potentially reduced fiscal stimulus. We also juxtapose how September has historically been trouble for markets versus the current win streak, which typically bodes well for returns. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by v...

Will & Adam explore the cacophony emanating from the loudest voices in the room on things like meme stocks and the delta variant, and provide our own measured analysis to separate hyperbole from reality. We also explore the jaws opening between economic data and interest rates, the Fed's conundrum, and stretched valuations for the most speculative stocks. Learn more about Formidable Asset Manageme...

We ignore the flashing red light on the microphone, just like markets have been ignoring any number of warning signs. We discuss the bond market (or lack thereof), explore the conflicting signals sent by treasury yields, and the explore the inexplicable appetite for the currently misnamed high-yield debt. The bifurcation of equity returns between megacap and the rest is discussed, as are the poten...

We bark again about the continued mania in meme stocks, as well as delve into the inflationary pressures building in certain parts of the economy. The massive flows into equities and misnamed "high yield" debt are also topics of conversation, as are looking to the late 1940s and late 1960s as potential playbooks for what might be a choppy remainder of the year.  Learn more about Formidable Asset M...

Come aboard. We're expecting you… We make another run after a technology glitch to discuss the Love Boat's star-crossed investors, the knife-sharpening industry, and the strange dichotomy between market complacency as a whole versus the mania around retail trading in meme stocks. From there, we delve into a discussion of inflation as reflected in things like lumber and labor. We then debate how a...

Will and Adam delve into the return of meme-stock mania and address listener feedback vis-à-vis valuations and geese. They also discuss the circular logic of inflation versus expectations, how the market interprets this, and how the real impact of inflation is often mismeasured, using candy bar sizes. No free samples of a candy line-up will be provided. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management...

Will and Adam explore human overconfidence, be it in fighting an animal, like a goose, or with regard to investing. We spend some time on the Indian variant, inflation expectations, and the rhyming nature of today's speculative activities with prior episodes of mania. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com .

Will and Adam review the market's reaction to further fiscal stimulus, lack thereof to proposed tax changes, and compare the Fed's largesse with the printer to our favorite confetti-throwing comedian. Obligatory discussions of lumber price inflation and employee scarcity also ensue, as does a more somber discussion of the overlooked Covid calamity in India.  Learn more about Formidable Asset Manag...

Will and Adam look right in the old lumber yard to discuss inflation and how government stimulus is affecting both sides of the inflation equation, especially as it relates to crowding out in the labor market. We also explore interest rates, the rotation back to large cap despite enthusiasm over re-opening and robust growth prospects for Q2, and the shift in retail investor activity.  Learn more a...

Will and Adam explore the rebellion in stock markets, including the recent carnage prompted by margin calls on a highly levered family office. The two also discuss the red-hot housing market, transitory vs. lasting inflation, the bond market's appetite for junk, the surprising strength of the dollar and its effect on Burl Ives' favorite commodities. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Wi...

Will and Adam delve into grammar and how adding misused words, e.g., supposably, to the dictionary normalizes stupidity and is analogous to the market rewarding investors in meme stocks. We connect the dots on the disconnect between the Fed's transitory view of inflation versus what the market is anticipating, look at the overlooked impact of the variant in Europe, and discuss other risks the mark...

Will and Adam welcome Jennie Ripps, co-founder and CEO of Owl's Brew, an emerging leader in the rapidly growing hard tea category. The three talk about the history of the company, its pivot to boozy tea, the challenges and opportunities of running a business during a pandemic, and why ingredients matter if you want to drink wise. They put the latter to the test with an impromptu taste comparison,...

While Will and Adam may, a lot of people have been misusing the term lately. We discuss how all stocks are equal, though some are more equal than others, where we see (and do not see) inflation, and what that means for equities, especially small caps, and bonds. We close with some perspective on what has been driving the outperformance in certain frothy areas of the market, why it may continue, an...

Like the Electric Light Orchestra, Will and Adam have no answer for what is happening right now, but a lot of questions. They cover similarities and differences between now and the late 1990s, discuss valuation for various parts of the market, where they see relatively unattractive risk versus reward, and delve into specifics on a few names in the news.

Will Brown and Adam Eagleston in the same room…drinking while recording a podcast. What could possibly go wrong? Apparently, everything. Listen to the two echo one another's comments (literally) on election fallout and the widening chasm between economic reality and valuations in certain parts of the market. Will and Adam experienced technical difficulties in the recording of this podcast—we apolo...

Of the periodic table, that is. We talk hydrogen vs. gravity power, rubidium-colored drinks, even unstable francium, provide an update on the potassium-shaped recovery, and answer questions regarding one of our recent white papers. Listening is even easier than Elon Musk thinks it is to find and process lithium using sodium chloride; we are unsure how many cesium cycles long this podcast is, thoug...

We discuss the psychology behind investors' current affinity for glamour stocks and why it may not end soon, how this relates to the Fed's new inflation policy, and why Will loves lamp.

Will and Adam look to Jim, Rex, and Cosmo, collectively the "C(K)ramers", for perspective on the Fed, market multiples, the shape of the recovery, and the Dunning-Kruger effect.  

Escape from the labyrinth and explore why physics don't comport with the Icarus myth, and how the same kind of first-order thinking is affecting markets, where certain sectors and companies are in rarified air.

Will and Adam discuss the increase in COVID cases and its implications for consumer behavior, the Japanification of the U.S. (and what it means for financial stocks and gold), a recent purchase for our investors in the electric vehicle/drone space, and investors burning themselves through day trading.