Tatsu’s Newsletter Podcast

This is the second Monthly Outlook on Geopolitical Risk Assessment. December’s framework proved largely accurate on Ukraine: settlement negotiations advanced further than baseline projected, with 90% of the 20-point peace plan now agreed and US security guarantees documented in writing.[^1] However, the Maduro capture was not anticipated and represents a paradigm shift in US willingness to use mil...

January 30, 2026 Bloomberg: $35/month. Financial Times: $42/month. The Economist: $17/month. Original analysis by Tatsu with 40+ footnotes: $8/month. This post is public. Share it with anyone who needs to see this. Twenty-four hours ago, I assessed the probability of US strikes on Iran within 72 hours at 65%. The European Union had just unanimously designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Cor...

January 8, 2026 “There is no time to lose. Let the whole world hear it loud and clear. India is now wide awake. We shall prevail. We shall overcome.” — Manmohan Singh, Budget Speech, July 24, 1991 “India was 14 days away from defaulting on its international obligations. We had to act.” — P.V. Narasimha Rao, Prime Minister, 1991 “The license-permit raj has been abolished. We are freeing the Indian...

This is Part 1 of a 6-part series. Part 1 is free. Parts 2-6 are for paid subscribers. The series connects AI, semiconductors, military capability, crypto policy, and the dollar into a single thesis: American hegemony isn't ending. It's being rebuilt on silicon. Ray Dalio is wrong. January 27, 2026 Pax Americana Digitalis: The Invisible Empire The dollar doomers are having a moment. Scroll through...

On Saturday, I wrote that Minneapolis would not explode. The federal agents would pull back. The state would keep the peace. There would be no accountability, only a negotiated pause. Operation Metro Surge would be dialed back. I was right. One of the small details no one wrote about? A BP agent gleefully clapped his hands immediately after Pretti was killed. CAPTION: Agent claps during shooting A...

This post is public. Share it with anyone who should see this. January 23, 2026 Ray Dalio says American hegemony is ending. The BRICS are rising. The dollar is doomed. Get analysis like this delivered to your inbox. I wrote a six part article series proving why that's backwards. American power isn't declining. It's being rebuilt on silicon. And almost nobody sees it. Part 1: Ray Dalio Is Wrong (FR...

This post is public. Share it with anyone who should see this. January 19, 2026 "It's okay dude. I'm not mad at you." — Renee Good's last words, seconds before an ICE agent shot her dead I don't do American politics. I write about the harsh reality of geopolitics: Iran, Venezuela, Ukraine, the stuff that actually moves markets and shapes the world order. American domestic politics is tribal theate...

January 13, 2026 The Islamic Republic of Iran is navigating the most acute threat to its existence since the Iran-Iraq War. But the story of what is happening in Iranian streets right now cannot be understood without understanding what came before: the "Twelve-Day War" of June 2025, the systematic destruction of Iran's deterrent capabilities, the deliberate weaponization of economic pressure, and...

"If you strike us, we open every port. We put 500,000 people on boats. Your Coast Guard can't stop them. Florida drowns." — The threat Cuba hasn't made yet Senator Tim Scott said the United States will "establish order" in Cuba. Senator Rick Scott said Cuba will be "fixed" this year. The operational template is proven: decapitation strike, leadership extraction, transitional government, withdrawal...

“We will establish order in Cuba, and Nicaragua will also become ours. Next year we will have a new president in Colombia.” — Senator Tim Scott, January 8, 20261 Five days after US forces captured Nicolás Maduro, Senator Tim Scott said the quiet part out loud. Cuba. Nicaragua. Colombia. Three countries, three regime changes, one timeline. This is not speculation about American intentions. This is...

January 6, 2026 “The United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere.” — 2025 National Security Strategy, page 15 On November 25, 2002, George W. Bush signed the Homeland Security Act. “Setting up the Department of Homeland Security,” he said, “will involve the most extensive reorganization of the Federal Government since Harry...

January 6, 2026 “I want the dumb millions of our country to be healthy and happy, and I want them to grow spiritually. As yet, for this purpose, we do not need the machinery.” — Mahatma Gandhi, 1946 “The temples of modern India are not places of worship but the big steel plants and large dams.” — Jawaharlal Nehru, 1954 “The Hindu rate of growth is 3.5 percent. Why? The answer lies not in Hindu cul...

January 5, 2026 “I have to give credit to Trump for one thing: he didn’t falsely justify his decision by the need to spread democracy or protect human rights. Trump openly spoke about taking over Venezuelan oil.” — Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, January 4, 2026 On December 1, 2025, President Donald Trump granted a full pardon to Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former president of Honduras. Hernand...

December 30, 2025 Thanks for reading Tatsu’s Newsletter! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Happy 2025! Please consider subscribing and a monthly $8 contribution in 2026! March 5, 2026. In four months, Nepal goes to the polls. The world’s first Discord-elected prime minister will face her ultimate test: can a government born from gaming platform democracy survive actual d...

This is a free sample of Tatsu’s weekly geopolitical risk assessment for investors and decision makers. Contact tatsu at tikeda dot com to get monthly outlooks and weekly updates, custom for your organization. 1. Thesis Status US-Russia Settlement Framework (65-70% → 70-75%) : CONFIRMED - ACCELERATINGStory #3 confirms European officials labeled Trump’s peace plan “very bad.” Story #5 confirms US-U...

December 23, 2025 On December 23, 2025, the Department of Justice released Dataset 8 of the Epstein files: 10,595 PDF documents totaling 9.9GB of court records, FBI witness statements, prosecutor emails, and victim testimonies.[^1] [^1]: DOJ Epstein Files Dataset 8 - U.S. Department of Justice official release page containing all 10,595 PDF documents from the December 23, 2025 disclosure. Availabl...

December 23, 2025 Thanks for reading Tatsu’s Newsletter! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Happy 2025! Please consider subscribing and a monthly $8 contribution in 2026! September 2025. The world is on fire, and Gen-Z is holding the matches. Bangladesh’s August 2024 revolution had proven it could be done. Kenya had shown the speed. Indonesia had provided the symbol. Now,...

This is Part 3 of an ongoing investigation. Read Part 1: The Flight Logs and Evidence Inventory and Part 2: Why Trump Reversed on Releasing the FBI Documents . In 1998, Independent Counsel Ken Starr spent $70 million investigating Bill Clinton’s sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky, a 22-year-old White House intern. Clinton was impeached but acquitted. Lewinsky’s life was destroyed in the publ...

December 18, 2025 Thanks for reading Tatsu’s Newsletter! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Happy 2025! Please consider subscribing and a monthly $8 contribution in 2026! November 17, 2025. Dhaka, Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina, living in exile in India, has just been sentenced to death in absentia. The charges: “crimes against humanity” for the killing of protesters during th...

December 16, 2025 Thanks for reading Tatsu’s Newsletter! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Happy 2025! Please consider subscribing and a monthly $8 contribution in 2026! October 2023, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The students gathering outside Universitas Gadjah Mada weren’t supposed to make history. They were protesting the bombardment of Gaza, one demonstration among thousan...

December 11, 2025 “No disease that can be treated by diet should be treated with any other means.”— Maimonides, 12th century physician “The solution to cancer is not in finding new ways to destroy, but in finding new ways to restore.”— Dr. Thomas Seyfried, Boston College “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”— Upton Sinclair [2...

December 9, 2025 “Cancer, above all other diseases, has countless secondary causes. But, even for cancer, there is only one prime cause. The prime cause of cancer is the replacement of the respiration of oxygen in normal body cells by a fermentation of sugar.”— Otto Warburg, Nobel Laureate, 1956 “Everyone should know that most cancer research is largely a fraud, and that the major cancer research...

CLASSIFICATION : Professional Analysis - Institutional Clients PREPARED : 2025-12-08 | COVERAGE : 30 days | WORD COUNT : 10,174 REPORT TYPE : Strategic Outlook This is the first of my Monthly Outlooks on Geopolitical Risk Assessment. It is a comprehensive global strategy report for the month for institutions. I am working on weekly and daily reports, stay tuned. While December and possibly January...

December 4, 2025 “The food you eat can be either the safest and most powerful form of medicine or the slowest form of poison.”— Ann Wigmore “Sugar is the alcohol of the child.”— Dr. Robert Lustig, UCSF pediatric endocrinologist “Healthy nutrition is safe and effective in preventing cancer.”— American Institute for Cancer Research, 2023 [Same year: Americans consumed 152 pounds of sugar per capita,...

December 3, 2025 “The truth is rarely pure and never simple.”— Oscar Wilde “I found the Trump-Epstein scout connection that every mainstream outlet missed. I wrote Python code to search 22,903 files. They relied on press releases.”— This newsletter, every week since January I’ve been writing this newsletter for free since late last year, launching with the best 2024 Presidential Election predictio...