Street Signals

Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previous...

As financial markets continue to adjust for the ramifications of a global reordering of trade relationships, the first evidence of the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is starting to emerge. Drawing on work that offers an almost real-time monitor of online goods prices, Professor Alberto Cavallo from Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats is back on the podcast to discuss his wor...

Market volatility is subsiding but risk managers are still determining whether the recent, sharp moves and unusual correlation dynamics in stocks, bonds and currencies have run their course, or if they were preludes to upsets to come. The trade discussion is sure to roll on for the next several months and fiscal policy dynamics are likely to evolve in ways markets must consider. The key question i...

Having underestimated the breadth and size of trade barriers imposed by the United States on all its trading partners, markets continue to come to grips with the short and long term implications across assets, while economists and observers try to wrap their heads around what the global trading system, with the US dollar sitting at its center, will look like in the coming months and years. Elliot...

By the end of today, economists and financial market participants are hoping to be in a better position to understand and assess the impact of proposed tariffs on the United States’ largest trading partners. Of course, if the last three months are any guide, all such news on trade is subject to negotiation and compromise. Having had to deal with a barrage of ever-evolving headlines since the...

While US trade and fiscal policy dominate the popular discourse, recent developments across Asia have the potential to be every bit as consequential for FX and equity market returns. Newly announced economic measures from China’s National People’s Congress, the emergence of DeepSeek’s large language model and Japan’s policy choices carry both intra- and inter-regional impli...

The recent reversals in the US dollar, US rates and US equities have been sharp and rapid. A growing sense that not all is well with the US consumer, as well as a shift in policy prioritization, favoring fiscal consolidation now in the name of expansion later, are largely to blame. At the same time, the European policy mix is looking far more supportive of European assets and the EUR than previous...

The breakdown in communication between the US and Ukraine two weeks ago, for all the world to see, raises myriad questions, from the near-term state of the peace process in the Ukraine War, to the further-reaching framework of great power dynamics. As our guest this week details, the roles played in an emergent world order by the US, Europe, Russia and China are in flux, and we face potentially th...

Consensus trades have been put to the sword. Expectations for higher rates, a stronger US dollar, crypto currencies to the moon and especially US tech stock outperformance have all floundered on the rocks of political uncertainty, rising fears of a US growth scare and worries over both overvaluation of stocks and future investment needs for AI and other drivers of the IT story. How many of these c...

Amidst rising tensions and trade tariffs, market discussion often lands on how rising costs of US imports will affect the American consumer, the US balance of trade, inflation and what it all means for the US dollar. The perspectives of the emerging markets as targets in a potential trade war often get overlooked. With a moratorium on tariffs on Mexico due to expire next week and further duties se...

Financial markets cannot get a break from headlines. The Trump Administration is rolling out – and in some cases rolling back – trade tariffs at a frenzied pace. Negotiations over peace in Ukraine are only just beginning, with the shape of a resolution anyone’s guess. Fiscal policy is also front and center for bonds, with curbing deficits looking increasingly difficult as defense...

From interest rate cycles to equity valuations, long-term market trends follow a rhythm that shapes global macro—often in ways that aren’t immediately obvious. Add AI’s growing influence and political uncertainty, and navigating today’s landscape becomes even trickier. This week, Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe, joins the podcast to break it all down. A keen student of mar...

Last week's emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI model promising transformative cost savings and strong performance relative to other large language models, posed a wide array of long-term questions. Does DeepSeek's emergence represent a game-changer for the industry? What geopolitical implications might it have? And, how impregnable are the moats around the existing, large competitors in the IT ec...

A tricky few weeks in markets are putting several of the consensus trades to the sword. As investors grapple with mixed signals and increasing bifurcation within the global economic outlook, politics and an emerging AI arms race are becoming more prominent in driving day-to-day shifts in returns and sentiment, making the long view all the more important. In this special roundtable edition of the p...

On the heels of another mediocre year for bonds, the first few weeks of 2025 have seen significant gyrations in fixed income markets. The policies of the new Trump administration speak to extended deficits and higher debt levels, bringing with them the prospect for a return of above-target inflation in the form of potential tariffs and reduced labor supply. Expectations for Federal Reserve activit...

Two weeks into the New Year, the economic and market outlook for 2025 is marked by uncertainty. Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, joins the podcast to offer his perspective at this critical moment. Ron and host Tim Graf walk through the uncertainties and interdependencies arising from geopolitics, US trade and immigration policy, and global fiscal policy. Discussions of the rel...

The current market consensus sees equities higher, led by continued strength in the tech sector, interest rates staying at current, high levels or even rising further, and a stronger US dollar. But many of these views are already crowded and valuation challenges abound. On this week’s episode, host Tim Graf looks at where the behavioral and fundamental realities available from our proprietar...

Just before Christmas, it is tradition for us to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our...

This week, we recap the year just gone in macro markets, and get a preview of what’s to come in 2025, in a conversation with traders from the FX desk of State Street Global Markets in Boston. Bill Walsh, head of trading for the Americas, returns to Street Signals with thoughts on the developed, G10 markets, and we welcome Chris Wise, a senior Emerging Markets trader focused on Latin America,...

We head into year-end with our annual presentation of the best opportunities in markets for the New Year. Every December, members of our macro strategy team choose an idea they think has the best chance of success in the next year. Themes emerge from the commonalities and the talking points arise from the contrasts. For 2025, we actually see a more cohesive set of thoughts emerging from the proces...

After a year of range-bound behavior, fixed income and FX markets are trending. The catalyst? The anticipation and election of Donald Trump as US President, with confirmed Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress now thrown in for good measure. After seeing large re-pricings across asset classes and currencies over the last two months, how much of the news is in the price and which of the...

Bridging the gap between financial theory and investment practice has been the hallmark of research at State Street for more than 25 years. So, we are lucky to speak to a pioneer in this endeavor this week. Sébastien Page, head of Global Multi Asset and Chief Investment Officer at T. Rowe Price, joins the podcast, walking us through insights gleaned from over two decades in finance, starting with...

The votes are cast and the results from the 2024 Election are rolling in. In-house election guru Noel Dixon joins Street Signals with his initial thoughts. What were the big surprises and what went as expected? And, given what we know so far, how should we think about the implications for stocks, bonds and the US Dollar over the medium to long term? All this and more on our special election reacti...

Among all the other risks, next week’s US election and Federal Reserve meeting dominate the market outlook and look set to drive price action and volatility for the rest of 2024.  Debate is intensifying over whether the most appealing consensus views are already aligned with pricing for interest rates and FX and are now subject to disappointment. Fredrik Repton, a senior portfolio manager in fixed...

Private cryptocurrency has been around for 15 years. Institutional acceptance is here. Movement towards public, central bank-issued digital currencies (CBDCs), on the other hand, is proving more deliberate by design. The demand for safe, digital currencies is growing and the gains from efficiency look significant. But the accompanying risks are under-discussed. We fix that this week and speak with...