Steady Wealth Podcast

The stock market is a complex entity, and there are many things that can happen which are difficult to predict or fathom. One such thing is stock market seasonality, which tends to be more difficult to predict during bear markets. Bear markets are defined by their volatility, and making money during a bear market is difficult. Past bear markets, such as the year 2000 and the 2007-2009 financial cr...

We may see stocks continue to rally over the next few weeks to months. To understand why, we must first understand where we fit in the bigger picture. If you don’t understand things like the economic cycle, it can be very difficult to make money, often chasing false rallies, or selling in false sell-offs. As we’re all painfully aware, interest rates have gone from about .5% to about 5% in the last...

Over at Blue Marlin Advisors, when the economy goes into a recession, there’s a specific playbook they employ. A recession is not necessarily all that critical, it’s how the market responds to it. Recessions are actually a normal, and important, part of the economic cycle. If we look back over the years, we can clearly see this repeating cycle of some sort of growth phase, a peak, and a slow down...

Over the last 20+ years, ETFs have increasingly become a staple in many people’s portfolios. From an investing and trading perspective, there are a lot of reasons for this. From tradability and tax-efficiency, to diversification and transparency, ETFs can be a great option. Other times, they aren’t the best option. Let’s look at the pros and cons. For tradability, unlike mutual funds, ETFs can the...

Getting set up for retirement is important to a lot of people, and a financial portfolio is often the way that is done. Today, Serge is joined by special guest, Kate Stalter, to discuss the common mistakes people make with their portfolios. Kate got her start in the financial industry working for Bill O’Neil at the Investor’s Business Daily. She reached a lot of people through speaking engagements...

With the current state of the stock market, one might be wondering how you could double, triple, or even quadruple your portfolio income. The answer is with bonds. Bonds might not be as exciting as the stock market, but they’re where earning potential lies in our current market. A lot of people still don’t understand, or maybe just haven’t accepted, the giant shift we’ve had in 2022. That shift di...

The old saying, ‘patience is a virtue’, is true in the trading and investing world of today’s markets. In December, Serge received 10-15 inquiries from people getting ready to retire, who wanted to take more charge of their finances and be more involved in the markets. The problem with this is once people get more involved and passionate, they tend to overtrade or jump on the first thing that come...

While conducting an end of year review, Serge came to the conclusion that we’re very clearly in a commodity and energy super cycle.  While the length of a super cycle is usually hindsight, it’s looking like it could be from 5 to 20 years. For a long time, the energy sector wasn’t doing anything, and then between 2020 and 2022 it went up 50%. Energy stocks have gone from 3% of the S&P allo...

As we head into 2023, we’re looking back on and discussing the most important takeaways from 2022. To put it simply, 2022 was the first ugly year in terms of returns for a lot of people. When we take into consideration that the average age on Wall Street is 35, and the last bull market was 12-13 years, we know that most young traders have never seen a bear market. The tip of the iceberg that nudge...

As the year comes to an end, Serge finds himself asking why investors haven’t capitulated yet. Most people’s portfolios are down, many 20-25%. Usually we’ll see investors lose 30%, and be down an average of 6 months, before they start to panic. Retail investors tend to be more emotional, which unfortunately, causes them to sell at the bottom. To avoid this, we must have perspective. Investors need...

When it comes to setting your portfolio up in a high interest rate environment, there’s one move you should consider. Fixed income, and more specifically, bonds. We’re all aware that we have a higher environment of inflation, with things getting more expensive at a faster pace. While it will come back down, and already is, we won’t get back to those ultra low rates anytime soon. Bonds hold the pow...

Many people have preconceived notions about investment advisors, or they’ve had bad experiences with them in the past. Today, Serge discusses why many people are opposed to financial advisors, and conversely why they’re a good idea to have. As CIO at Blue Marlin Advisors, Serge has found that once people are better educated, they ultimately find that it makes sense, and don’t know why they didn’t...

With 2022 coming to an end, a lot of people, especially those with the classic 60/40 portfolio, will be in for a miserable time. Most people aren’t aware of how their portfolio is performing until they open their end of year statement. With equity markets down 20-30% and more, we’re not seeing nearly the same yields as years past. We’re headed for a lost decade with the S&P, and now’s the time...

While seasonal patterns shouldn’t be the sole factor in a market analysis, it is definitely worth including. As we enter the 4th quarter, it’s seasonally a very strong period for the market. On today’s episode, we’re going to look at the probability of a year end rally in the equity markets, and the various factors that contribute to this possibility. Seasonal patterns are a result of investor beh...

The exchange traded fund ARKK is one that many people are familiar with. Unfortunately, it’s also one that isn’t doing particularly well right now. It’s down about 60% from last year, and 80% from it's high. So, let's look at what broader economic environment we need before it’s worthwhile again. To put it simply, we need a market environment that’s much more friendly in terms of money availabilit...

Things look pretty ugly across the board. It’s something Serge was forecasting as far back as spring 2021. Over the past couple weeks, Serge has seen people start to wake up to the fact that the market is bottoming out. People are scared, and they want to know what to do. One concerning trend that Serge has noticed is that people’s portfolios are largely made up of non-yielding assets. People are...

Seasonal patterns are a real thing, and the autumn market fears are in full swing. There are just parts of the year where, on average, it just doesn’t pay to be doing anything. That’s not to say the market is about to crash, or that no one is bearish, but individual investors are definitely still too bullish. It could be because we just had a 12 year bear market in equities, but individual investo...

Whether you’re a full time or part time trader, whether you’re just getting started or have been doing this for years, the following topic is fundamentally important. It’s amazing how little is being discussed about having different trading and investing buckets. There will obviously be different strategies based on the time frame you’re looking at. We all know day trading is vastly different from...

Whether you are new to the market, or you’ve been in it for many years, you likely find yourself asking the same question. That question is, should you trade? Now, we’re not talking about whether a trade is good or bad in general, we’re talking about whether trading is appropriate for you specifically. To answer this question, we need to look at a couple of things, such as why you’re trading to be...

The bond market isn’t really on the radar of retail investors. What has caught people’s attention is that portfolios are down. With the bond market being much bigger than the equity market, is now the time to buy bonds? Most retirement plans have bonds, with the general suggested allocation being 60% equities to 40% fixed income, adjusting with age. Whether issued by the US treasury or a corporati...

The question on every trader and investor's mind as we head into autumn is, has the stock market bottomed? Both for 2022, and in general. We’re going to paint a good picture for perspective, because you can’t just ask what to buy and sell without having a good overall perspective. In Serge’s opinion, we’re just about to head into the second half of the bear market ballgame, with a focus on economi...

Consistency is key, and the host of the How To Trade It Podcast, Casey Stubbs, is here to share why. First, you have to be able to define consistency as it relates to trading. For Casey, it means having a very clear process, and following it day in and day out. He tends to grade himself on how consistent he was over the actual outcome. With a long term plan, as long as you’re consistent, you’re go...

Here to discuss the top three investor and trader mistakes, is Serge’s partner from Blue Marlin Advisors, Brian Terry. When thinking about the top mistakes, both men came up with the same three. One thing these mistakes have in common is psychology and minimizing emotions. With trading being more of an art than a science, Serge has found that people with a strong academic background tend to strugg...

There’s no doubt about it, we’re in a bear market.  Accepting that is half the battle. The other half lies in looking at the bigger picture and not panicking.  We all know that’s easier said than done, as people understandably react emotionally when it comes to their money. We can build a better perspective when we understand that history tends to rhyme rather than repeat. With the avera...

We’ve been in a bull market for 10 years, with free money being the tail wind for investors.  That era has now ended and investors are feeling the pain.  As we come to this critical juncture, the Steady Wealth Podcast is here to discuss the realities of the market. Things are more complex than meets the eye, but we have the insights that will make things a bit easier.  The key is in...